February 17, 2014 archive

Mid Week Flooding Concerns And Storms; New Cold Pattern Looms…

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Forecast Updated 02.18.14 @ 9:27a

Calmer Couple Of Days…After another winter storm event, we’ll welcome a calmer couple of days with open arms.  Weather conditions will improve from a blustery and slick start Tuesday with sunshine and temperatures moderating back to seasonal levels by the afternoon.  While it’ll feel much milder compared to what we’ve grown accustomed to, we’ll really be right where temperatures should be for this time of year.  Dry and seasonable weather continues Wednesday.

Stormy Thursday…A cold front will blow through the region Thursday and will be responsible for producing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms.  We’re targeting southern Indiana for a potential episode of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.  Further north, a damaging wind report or two cannot be ruled out as a line of thunderstorms blows through Thursday afternoon/ evening, and this does include the greater Indianapolis metro.

Additionally, a flooding threat will be very real Thursday, especially considering rainfall numbers will approach the one inch mark and combine with a heavy snow pack and frozen ground.  Those in flood prone areas should prepare now to seek higher ground Thursday as heavy rain and snow melt combine to lead to dangerous water rise.

All in all, Thursday stands to be yet another active weather day here in the Hoosier state.  Stay tuned.

Colder Air Return; Eyeing Snow Potential Closely…We’re confident on two things in the mid to long range- a return of well below normal temperatures and snow.  That said, there are many difference between the European, Canadian, and GFS at present in how they handle waves of energy moving east.  We think at least one of these areas of low pressure produces accumulating snow across central Indiana, but it’s still a bit early to determine which one that will be.  We sum things up with this note: the weekend will turn colder and stands to be another snowy one.  As of now, a blend of the model data would point towards Sunday offering the best shot at accumulating snow at this juncture, but caution this can change as we move forward.

Even longer term, a potentially record-breaking cold spell looms to wrap up February and head into March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/17/mid-week-flooding-concerns-and-storms-new-cold-pattern-looms/

Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/17/messy-afternoon-commute-ahead/

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