2013 archive

Pattern Showing Signs Of More Sustained Wintry Weather?

As we progress into the second half of November and December, friends and family begin to hit the road for holiday travel.  It’s also at this time where winter weather enthusiasts begin to wonder when that first “true winter storm” will arrive.  As we look towards this period, it becomes more important to note the state of the “big three” teleconnections.  These include the PNA (Pacific North America pattern), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and AO (Arctic Oscillation).  While it’s impossible to predict, with 100% certainty, the weather based solely off these teleconnections, they can be very good indicators of where the pattern may be heading in the next couple three weeks.

In a “perfect world” for those wanting cold and wintry weather here across the Hoosier state you want to see a positive PNA, which promotes western ridging and eastern troughiness (associated with cold weather).  Additionally, you want to see a negative AO and NAO (promotes high latitude blocking and corresponding cold, arctic, air is shunted south into the Lower 48).  What do the teleconnections currently show?

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Taken at face value, this suggests a cold and potentially wintry pattern may ensue to close out November and as we go into December.  We’re looking at an AO and NAO trending negative and a PNA trending positive.  *It should be noted that, at times, a negative NAO can be so strong that it supplies the cold air, but can also lead to a suppressed storm track- south of the available cold air…

Each storm provides it’s own set of challenges and must be dealt with as they come. We can look at past storms and patterns (called analog forecasting) to help get an “idea” as to what patterns and storms in front of us may produce, but no storm is identical to the other.  At this early stage in the game, it appears as if a pattern is setting up that could provide “wintry mischief” just at the time when most folks want it- for the Thanksgiving and Christmas season.

Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/12/pattern-showing-signs-of-more-sustained-wintry-weather/

A Closer Look At Tuesday

Hoosiers are awaking to roughly half an inch of snow across the majority of central Indiana. The forecast went as planned overnight and we’ll keep a close eye on the lake effect band of snow hammering the Indiana snow belt.  Short term, high resolution, data (below) suggests snow showers move back into north-central Indiana by late morning/ early afternoon- primarily north of the Indianapolis metro.

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Otherwise, it’s going to be a cold day with temperatures only rising into the middle 30s. This is much more like December as opposed to mid November and a solid 20 degrees below the average high of 54.

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We have another “fun time” ahead in the mid range and we’ll begin to discuss the next storm potential later tonight.  As you can see, the GFS and ECMWF are in all sorts of disagreement below…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/12/a-closer-look-at-tuesday/

Monday Evening Video Snow Update

Here’s a quick video update on the light snow inbound… Much more later!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/11/monday-evening-video-snow-update/

Monday Forecast: Snow Develops By Evening

Updated 11.11.13 @ 8:30a

Zionsville, IN Despite some wind (top wind gusts this weekend reached around 30 MPH) and a chilly Sunday, the weekend was a beautiful one, complete with lots-o-sunshine!  A more active time of things is ahead to kick off the work week.  We discuss below…

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconMonday: Increasing cloudiness with PM rain showers transitioning to light snow (0.50″); 28/ 46

The day will dawn with some sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase and showers won’t be far behind. This is all part of the early season arctic cold front we’ve been talking about.  We think showers (initially rain) arrive into north-central Indiana as early as the early to mid afternoon hours before pushing fairly rapidly south. It’s towards late afternoon/ early evening rain begins to transition to snow. Light snow will continue into the nighttime hours and potentially accumulate to around half an inch across most of central Indiana.

There are a couple of items we’ll have to monitor closely through the overnight and that’s the exact placement of what should be some impressive bands of lake effect snow streaming off Lake Michigan.  While the more significant accumulations, upwards of half a foot for the Indiana snow belt, will remain well north of us, there is the chance a more concentrated band of snow could reach as far south to impact portions of north-central Indiana late Monday night into Tuesday morning and result in accumulations of an inch or two for localized communities. Again, this will have to be handled as a “NowCast” scenario and isn’t set in stone.  If locally heavier snow accumulations do develop with the localized lake enhancement, the majority of this would be north of our immediate coverage area.

Temperatures will plummet Monday night into the lower to middle 20s on a gusty northwest wind.  Needless to say, slick spots could develop on area roadways Monday night.

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: Scattered AM snow showers (localized 0.50″); 22/ 35

We’ll keep an eye to area radars Tuesday, particularly in the morning hours as scattered snow showers (potential lake enhanced snow for localized spots) continue.  Conditions will be much more like winter than fall so plan to bundle up. In fact, temperatures will average close to 20 degrees below average for afternoon highs. Any lingering snow showers or flurries will begin to dissipate during the afternoon, paving way for a clear and very cold Tuesday night.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Sunny; 19/ 42

High pressure will be overhead Wednesday and help supply a day filled with sunshine, although it’ll remain MUCH colder than normal.  We’ll awake to the upper teens followed by highs reaching the lower 40s Wednesday afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 49

Temperatures will begin to moderate slowly Thursday as high pressure moves to our east. This will set the stage for a return southwesterly air flow and corresponding milder regime, albeit slowly.  After yet another cold and frosty night, temperatures will make a run at 50 degrees Thursday afternoon.

imagesFriday: Mostly cloudy; 35/ 49

A weak weather system will scoot through the region Friday and lead to an increase in cloud cover. Thinking, at least for now, has the area trying to recover from the cold, dry air mass in place so any sort of precipitation will, most likely, be tough to come by. That said, we’ll continue to monitor to see if we need to introduce a scattered light shower into our Friday forecast.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconSaturday: Cloudy with developing light rain; (0.25″) 39/ 52

The early look at next weekend places the region under a southerly flow of air with moisture making a return north, potentially out ahead of a rather significant storm system we’ll have to deal with early next week. The end result will initially be a rather cloudy, gloomy time of things, including developing light rain Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/10/monday-forecast-snow-develops-this-evening/

Video Update On Snow Accumulation & The Cold

Here’s a quick video update taking a look more closely at the forecast data for accumulating snow ahead Monday evening, as well as the impressive early season shot of cold…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/10/video-updated-on-snow-accumulation-the-cold/

Closer Look At Saturday!

Happy college football Saturday!  Here’s a quick post before the fun begins this afternoon!  War Eagle!

Today will be a beautiful day, albeit windy.  Winds will gust out of the southwest up to 30 MPH at times. Partly cloudy skies are on tap as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, courtesy of that mild southwest air flow.

Enjoy the warmth while you have it, as the next 7 days will be MUCH colder than average.  By Tuesday, highs will remain in the 30s with AM light snow. Overnight lows by Wednesday morning?  How do the lower 20s sound?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/09/closer-look-at-saturday/

Closer Look At Friday

*Your full forecast for the week ahead can be found below this post.

We’re starting the day off with cold and frosty conditions. Most are waking up to the middle to upper 20s with a heavy frost.

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With lots of sunshine, highs today will moderate, but remain well below normal, reaching the lower 50s for many.  Cooler air will reside northeast of Indy, noted by the high-resolution HRRR showing upper 40s for afternoon highs.

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A warm front will blow through the region this afternoon with an increase in evening cloudiness and a wind shift to the south tonight. This will lead to a milder night tonight and is only a prelude to what will be a very windy Saturday, despite warmer air in place.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/08/closer-look-at-friday/

Friday Forecast: Cold Start To The Day!

Updated 11.07.13 @ 10:47p Zionsville, IN Strong northwest winds are howling in the open country this evening and creating downright cold conditions out. Temperatures in the lower 30s are combining…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/07/friday-forecast-cold-start-to-the-day/

Thursday Forecast: Eyeing Snow Next Week?

Updated 11.06.13 @ 10:26p Zionsville, IN For the most part, rainfall totals today have been under what model guidance suggested.  For an area still wetter than normal, that’s not a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/06/thursday-forecast-eyeing-snow-next-week/

Keeping An Eye On Next Week Closely…

We continue to monitor the middle of next week closely, as forecast models are beginning to get into better agreement.  While we’re confident that we turn much colder (at least…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/06/keeping-an-eye-on-next-week-closely/

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