November 2013 archive

Two Totally Different Solutions For Next Week!

I wanted to quickly post on two totally different scenarios for next week.  Two of the more powerful forecast models we use to look into the mid-long range are in separate worlds when it comes to the weather pattern the middle to latter part of next week.

Here’s a look at the GFS upper air pattern:

gfs_z500_sig_east_38

Note the eastern ridging which would lead to well above normal temperatures during the middle to latter part of next week (by as much as 10 degrees above average), along with dry conditions.

HOWEVER, here’s a look at the European’s forecast upper air pattern late next week:

ecm_z500_anom_east_11

This would certainly be quite the significant storm for the Northeast, but the implications here are vastly different from that which the GFS shows above.  Instead of warmth and dry conditions, we’d deal with highs in the middle 30s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s.  Additionally, we’d also “enjoy” (okay, some folks would “enjoy”) snow showers and snow squalls the middle to latter portion of next week, as noted per the European below, including a lake Michigan connection.

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_36

 

Needless to say, we have a lot to sort out in the coming days.  We’ll be here to do just that.  Make it a great Tuesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/two-totally-different-solutions-for-next-week/

Thoughts On Winter…

This is the first time since 2002 that I haven’t produced a winter outlook.  Part of the reason behind this is due to the fact that our recent move back from Cleveland, OH to Indianapolis has taken priority.  Moving is always a much bigger chore than you expect originally.  That said, the upcoming winter of 2013-2014 presents quite the challenge when trying to determine what particular player takes control for the “long haul.”  I can’t remember a time when so many variables were at play, presenting quite the headache in trying to determine which one will take the lead.  Ultimately, confidence is lower than normal for the winter forecast.  That said, “confidence” in something 3-4 months out is never considered high. 🙂

Here are just a few items I’m looking at for the upcoming winter:

1. Data is pointing towards a southeast ridge in play for the better part of the upcoming winter.

The strength and precise position of the ridge will go a long way in aiding our weather here in central Indiana.  Southeast ridging isn’t always a bad thing in the winter if you’re a cold and snow fan as storms can’t “escape” harmlessly to our south or east.  That said, should we deal with a strong southeast ridge then we’re looking at a warmer, rainier time of things here as opposed to cold and snowy…

2. Modeling suggesting Nino Region 3.4 warms slightly as we progress through the winter months.

SST_table

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The implications here are interesting when we drill down to the “home front.”  The following data from similar conditions during December-February in Nino Region 3.4 correlate to a few years that will go down in Hoosier snow lovers dreams…

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
  • 1977-1978: 49.7″ of snow, 2nd snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +0.8
  • 2002-2003: 46.9″ of snow, 4th snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +1.2
  • 2009-2010: 32.2″ of snow, 10th snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +1.6

3. NAO showing signs of going negative when it matters most?

Labeled as the new “NAO Model everyone is looking for” may, perhaps, be just that.  This formula has already proven to be incredibly accurate in the past.  This was developed by fellow midwestern, Al Marinaro (you can follow him on Twitter at @wxmidwest).  In the past I’ve been one to say it’s incredibly difficult to forecast the NAO beyond 2-3 weeks, but we look at water temperatures this time of year to try and get an idea of what may happen in the coming winter months ahead.  If Mr. Marinaro is on to something (and it appears that he is) that longstanding idea will all change.

Additionally, to the delight of many cold and snow lovers out there, Mr. Marinaro’s formula suggests we’re heading for a predominantly negative NAO this winter.

BXihwRqCIAAtd3d.png-large

 

 

 

 

 

4. The normally “highly variable” CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) monthly run has remained consistent as of late in thinking the east is warmer than normal for meteorological winter.  

It’s amazing how often this model is shown when forecasting cold, but seemingly forgotten when it’s forecasting warmer than normal conditions.

usT2mSeaInd2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/04/thoughts-on-winter/

Monday Forecast: Tracking Another Storm

Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p

Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect!  While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58

The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours.  It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures.  Enjoy!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61

We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconWednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60

A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark).  While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″);  38/ 55 (falling)

The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48

A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55

Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend.  We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday.  Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/03/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/01/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

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