November 2013 archive

Questions Around Next Week’s Arctic Front…

Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found in the video to the right of this article.

We continue to keep a close eye on the developing weather situation here late next week.  Many questions remain in regards to the track, timing, and strength of the cold air associated with an arctic cold front that will result in record-breaking cold for portions of the country next week.  How much fight will the southeast ridge put up as the front progresses east?  Will we have to deal with a wave of low pressure along the arctic boundary, potentially leading to some wintry “mischief” around these parts?  We hope to give some clarity around those questions by looking at some of the latest data below.

First, let’s take a look at the various model solutions for late next week.  It should be noted that the latest run of the National Weather Service’s GFS forecast model has taken a turn to look more like the overnight run of the European forecast model and suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure moving through here Friday into Saturday of next week, leading to the threat of wintry precipitation.  Taken at face value, this would suggest the threat of an accumulating snow event for central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning of next week.  This is in stark contrast to the 0z GFS run signaling dry, cold weather during the aforementioned time frame.

Here’s a look at the latest GFS solution, valid next Friday evening:

gfs_namer_180_1000_500_thick_s

There’s relatively good agreement in the GFS ensembles, but, again, we’ll have to fine tune the details.  It’s encouraging to see the agreement in the pattern evolution, though, this far out.

f192

Here’s a look at the latest European forecast, again valid for next Friday evening.

As we spoke about above, the 0z ECMWF run suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure in the cold air here next Friday into Saturday.  Similar to the latest run of the GFS model, there would be the potential of accumulating snow here.  The ensembles are on the left and the operational run is on the right.  The precise details will have to be ironed out, but we note relative agreement here.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_192

The latest Canadian forecast model also sees the wave of low pressure along the pressing arctic front, but suggests the wave is too far south to result in any sort of significant snowfall accumulation for central Indiana.  (As of this post time, the 12z Canadian ensemble package hadn’t arrived).

cmc_precip_mslp_east_31

So, with all of that said, we still have plenty of time to watch things unfold in the coming days.  What are we confident in as of today?

  • Brutally cold arctic air invading the northwest early in the week before slowly spreading east and south as we progress through the week.
  • We’ll be in a much warmer (though very brief) pattern here Thursday as highs zoom into the middle 50s to near 60 with rain.
  • We target the arctic front to blow through here during the day Friday.
  • While we’ll turn MUCH colder than normal next weekend, we aren’t looking at the brutality of the cold that our friends out west will have to deal with.

What are the answers that have to be ironed out this week?

  • Strength and depth of the cold air coming east.
  • Strength of the upper ridge over the Southeast US.
  • The resistance of the ridge will be crucial into determining where the “wintry precip. zone” sets up shop.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/29/questions-around-next-weeks-arctic-front/

QUICK Wednesday Evening Video Update

  I’ll try and have a more in-depth post later tonight.  Have a great evening!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/27/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update/

Tuesday Night Video Update: Lake Enhanced Snow Showers

Tonight’s Video Highlights: Lake Effect Snow Showers And Squalls Set To Impact Central Indiana Coldest Thanksgiving In Years On Deck Eyeing The Potential Of An Arctic Invasion Next Week

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/26/tuesday-night-video-update-lake-enhanced-snow-showers/

Clouds Today; Snow Showers For The Big Travel Day

Good morning and happy Tuesday, Hoosiers!  Yesterday’s forecast went as planned with most folks not receiving any snowfall accumulation and a couple reports of a dusting to half an inch type snow.  We saw a couple local weather sources forecasting 1″ of snow and never understood that call as a lot of dry air had to be overcome initially.

Today will feature lots of clouds and another cold day as we watch a big southern storm begin to “make the curve” and impact the interior east.  Places as close as eastern Ohio will deal with heavy snow tonight and early Wednesday.  Additionally, locations as far south as east Tennessee will have accumulating snow by late tonight and early Wednesday.

Back here on the “home front” we’re looking at our next chance of snow arriving Wednesday afternoon.  The wind trajectory off Lake Michigan should allow a couple of lake-enhanced snow bands to push south into north-central Indiana, primarily from IND and points north.  It’s impossible to pinpoint with any degree of certainty the precise locations of these snow bands, but should your neighborhood end up under one of these snow squalls, don’t be surprised if you pick up a quick coating to 1″ of snow Wednesday afternoon/ evening.

Most model data (below) shows the lake-enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arriving Wednesday afternoon.  We’ll have a complete forecast update (and probable video) here later tonight.  Make it a great day.

hires_ref_indy_30snow1snow2

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/26/clouds-today-snow-showers-for-the-big-travel-day/

Snow Talk

Good morning!  Some light snow is possible later this afternoon and tonight, but “light” is the key word and this shouldn’t amount to much, if any, accumulation across the majority of central Indiana. At most, we’re looking at a few communities that may see a dusting to half an inch type accumulation.  The latest high resolution data shows that we’re on the northern periphery of the storm system that will create all sorts of travel problems for our neighbors to our east and south in the days to come leading up to Thanksgiving.

hires_ref_ky_21

Additionally, we’ll keep a close eye on the wind trajectory coming off Lake Michigan Wednesday. It’s looking more and more likely that we’ll have to deal with some lake-enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls here Wednesday as fresh arctic air pours south.  While we’re not expecting any sort of widespread, uniform, accumulation with this, the idea is that a few places (primarily from IND and points north) may see a quick coating to 1″ of snow Wednesday as some of these snow showers and locally heavier (but isolated) squalls drift south into north-central Indiana.  The latest GFS and NAM show the lake Michigan connection well and we’ll keep a close eye on the wind trajectory Wednesday.

nam_namer_060_1000_500_thick_sgfs_namer_063_1000_500_thick_s

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/25/snow-talk/

Data Suggests Cold Pattern Keeps On Keepin’ On…

As we approach the all-important holiday travel season, I thought it would be nice to review what some of the data suggests in the long range sense.  While nothing is “set in stone” talking about weather 2-3 weeks out, we feel pretty confident in the overall idea of a colder than normal pattern and one that’s also potentially wintry- from a precipitation perspective.  The specifics with each storm will have to be handled as they come.

Let’s look at some of the data.  BTW, I want to give full credit to the awesome model suite that can be found at Weatherbell Analytics for some of these images.  Be sure to check them out at weather bell.com.

First, we’ll take a look at the Canadian ensembles, centered on the 8-16 day period.  Note the tongue of cold coming out of western Canada, extending southeast and encompassing the Ohio Valley region.  Folks, this is significant cold forecast off the Canadian ensembles as temperatures are suggested to average 5-7 degrees (C) below normal.

can_t2m_mean_conus_d8_16

 

 

 

 

 

 

The latest GFS ensembles also suggest widespread colder than normal temperatures over the upcoming couple weeks.  Similar to the Canadian (above), the GFS suggests temperatures average 5-7 degrees celsius below normal.

gefs_t2m_mean_noram_d0_16

 

 

 

 

 

 

Latest European ensemble data suggests a cold look as well, but one that also may feature a day or two above normal (over the next couple weeks). The latest ensemble control run highlights the threat of some bitterly cold arctic air plunging south towards the second week of December (posted below).  We’ll continue to monitor this in the days to come.

eps_t850a_c_nh_57

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here’s a look at the latest CFSv2. While it’s in stark contrast to only a couple of weeks ago (in its December forecast), the model is now onboard with most other data in forecasting a colder than normal December for our region.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20131124.201312

 

 

 

 

 

 

It has to be pointed out that all of the cold data is forecast during a time where the three “major” teleconnections really aren’t in the most ideal spots for eastern cold.  Typically, cold lovers across the eastern United States want a negative AO and NAO with a positive PNA. The NAO and AO are forecast to be very “sporadic” over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days while the PNA is forecast to go back negative.  That said, the NAO has the biggest influence on our weather from January through March (we’ve covered this in posts in the archives).  The expansive early season snow and ice pack through western Canada is having it’s say with a couple of early season “brutal” cold shots here (it’s very rare to get this kind of cold so early in the season).  We’ll continue to monitor these teleconnections moving forward for any sort of a more defined signal that may begin to come to fruition.

Speaking of snow and ice cover; look at how much more territory across the Lower 48 is covered with snow and ice compared to this date (November 24th) last year.  Impressive, huh?

November 24, 2012 (11.8% covered in snow)

nsm_depth_2012112405_National

November 24, 2013 (37.8% covered in snow)

nsm_depth_2013112405_National

As we look closer at the near term, there’s a chance of some light snow moving in Monday evening (not a huge deal, but some light accumulations of a dusting to half an inch are possible).  Scattered snow showers will also blow into central Indiana Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of fresh arctic air blows in prior to Thanksgiving.

In the mid range, both the GFS and European ensembles (below) suggest an “intriguing” look for the first 10 days of December for the potential of a more widespread winter weather maker.  It’s far too early for details, but with arctic air being supplied into a pattern that looks to have a southern branch beginning to flex it’s muscle, we’ll have to remain on our toes as we go into December…  Here’s wishing you a very happy and healthy Thanksgiving, complete with safe travels!

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240gefs_z500anom_nh_65

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/24/data-suggests-cold-pattern-keeps-on-keepin-on/

A Closer Look At Thanksgiving Week

Today’s model data continues the theme of a southern and eastern storm for the days surrounding Thanksgiving.  We’ll continue to monitor for any potential shift northwest, but as of now, the trend remains for a “suppressed” storm track.  Here’s a look at the individual GFS ensemble members, off today’s 12z run.  Taken at face value, 3 out of 10 members show some light snow in the air.

f132

For now, the big story still appears to be the unseasonably cold air around for Thanksgiving.  The ECMWF, Canadian, and American models (GFS and NAM) continue to hammer home the idea of a frigid Thanksgiving ahead (relative to the time of year, of course).  I’m not convinced we won’t have to deal with some light snow next week at some point, but for now, the bigger story still appears to be  impressive early season cold, and this cold pattern isn’t going away anytime soon.

The latest European forecast data illustrates this well.  Note each and every day is well below normal, aside from tomorrow (cold air pushes in tomorrow PM).  This is a snap shot of the average temperature (in degrees C) over the upcoming 10 day period.  The blues, greens, and purples showcase the cold, relative to average.

tavg_anom_ecmwf_mc_1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/21/a-closer-look-at-thanksgiving-week/

A Closer Look At Thursday

* A video update was posted late last night and talks about the rain, bitterly cold weekend ahead, and  looks at Thanksgiving.  Scroll below for that update.

Today will feature scattered light to moderate rain, but as noted last night, that rain will grow more widespread tonight.  The latest HRRR simulated radar shows that well.

hrrr_ref_indy_14

High temperatures today are forecast to reach the middle 50s, per the latest HRRR.

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_10

We’re still tracking major league early season arctic air due in here this weekend.  Take a look at just how far below normal these temperatures are come Sunday (shown in degrees celsius).  Wow!  Our forecast high of 24 will be the coldest November day in 13 years and a whopping 25 degrees below normal!  Thanks, as always, to Weatherbell Analytics model suite for this data.

gfs_t2max_anom_ma_29

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/21/a-closer-look-at-thursday/

Wednesday Evening Video Update: Rain Moving In; Arctic Blast This Weekend

http:/ Tonight’s Video Highlights: We talk rain and amounts for Thursday and Friday. The coldest air of the season and coldest November day in some 13 years is ahead! A…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/20/wednesday-evening-video-update-rain-moving-in-arctic-blast-this-weekend/

Video Update On The Remainder Of This Week And At Some Thanksgiving Week “Wintry Mischief”

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/19/video-update-on-the-remainder-of-this-week-and-at-some-thanksgiving-week-wintry-mischief/

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