The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley. Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight. Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.
A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.