Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…

1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_52.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region.  A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday.  Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_93.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question.  Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19

gfs_tprecip_indy_224.)  Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_22

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_245.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves.  Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts.  However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas.  In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears.  Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.

02.01.17Teleconnections


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