IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast Highlighted By Dry, Cool Evening…

Rain showers are moving into central Indiana this morning, but rainfall amounts should be light. Some folks won’t get wet at all.

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Good news is that these showers will move out of the region and we’ll introduce a dry regime by the afternoon and evening.

Forecast radar at 7pm shows a rain-free Indiana.

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Temperatures will slowly fall into the lower and middle 50s by the 2nd half.

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Your official IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast for Friday, October 24th:

Dry and pleasant with temperatures around 60° at kick off, falling into the lower and middle 50s by the end of the game. Light southwest winds generally 5 MPH, or less. Enjoy your game!

Another Frosty Start…

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38/ 60

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52/ 75

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Bundle Up…It’s another chilly and frosty start to the day and patchy fog has developed across portions of central Indiana this morning.  Plan to leave a little extra time on your way to work or school to account for this.  Otherwise, the first half of the day will feature bright sunshine (fog should burn off quickly) before clouds begin to increase this afternoon and evening.

More Bark Than Bite…A couple waves of very light precipitation will move through central Indiana Friday morning and again Saturday morning.  With a very dry air mass in place, this should be scattered and very light in nature (some won’t get wet at all).  Temperatures will be very mild Saturday before a brief Sunday “speed bump,” as a frontal boundary moves through.

Warm Open To The Work Week…A pronounced southwesterly flow will be in place ahead of our next cold front that appears to have a Tuesday focus.  Monday and Tuesday will feature unseasonably warm temperatures.  We’ll note our best chance of widespread measurable rain of the forecast period on Tuesday.  Cooler air will flow back into the area on gusty northwest winds Tuesday night.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Frosty Now, But A Taste Of Indian Summer Coming…

Our immediate focus has to do with another frosty morning Thursday (many will have low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s come daybreak with plenty of frost).  That said, changes are coming as we transition from eastern troughiness to brief ridging come early week.

We’ll replace the frosty 30s with a couple days of highs in the lower to middle 70s early next week.

Upper air pattern centered on next Monday:

UAPatter10.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’ll flirt with 70 degrees Saturday before a Sunday “speed bump” (highs in the lower 60s), but highs Monday and Tuesday will likely be around, or above, the 70 degree mark with a breezy southwest flow.

Forecast models differ on the next round of rain, but we’ll highlight the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame for our next best chance of widespread rains and embedded thunder along with a cool down for mid and late week.

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Frost On The Pumpkin…

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37/ 59

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44/ 65

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Frosty…It’s the coldest morning for most since last May.  Frost is rather widespread here at IndyWx.com HQ this morning (southern Boone county).  Thankfully, brilliant mid-Autumn sunshine will help temperatures warm into the upper 50s this afternoon (still roughly 5 degrees below average).  We’ll do it all again tonight as lows dip into the middle to upper 30s for many outlying communities.

Weak Weather System…First, most of, if not all Thursday will be dry with increasing late day clouds.  A couple very light showers will move across central Indiana late Thursday night into early Friday.  This won’t be a big deal in the least and we’ll quickly get back to dry weather.

Nice Weekend…A nice and dry weekend awaits with moderating temperatures.  All-in-all, it’ll be a beautiful autumn weekend.

Warmer Ahead Of The Next Storm System…While temperatures will moderate into the lower 70s early next week, it’ll come at a cost and that will be our next chance of widespread rain and embedded storms.  We’ll get back to cooler air by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sends in this brilliant shot of fall color that’s reaching peak across Zionsville.  Flat out awesome, John!  Thank you!

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Weekly Outlook: Generally Pleasant Autumn Weather…

October (month to date) is running slightly wetter than normal. Through the 21st, rainfall is running 0.52″ above normal at IND.

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A reflection of cooler than normal air remains centered over the Great Lakes and upper Mid West.

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In the near term, frosty mornings highlight the weather headlines. We forecast mid to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings across many central Indiana neighborhoods, including isolated lower 30s reports. Nothing like a frosty, crisp October morning…

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The pattern will transition from cooler than normal this week to briefly warmer than normal for the second half of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will flirt with 70° early week, but we caution the ridging won’t hold.

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Rainfall amounts through the upcoming (7) days will be generally light. Note the GFS and Canadian forecast less than 0.25″ out through the upcoming (7) day period.

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A weak boundary will move through the region late Thursday into early Friday with light showers possible.

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Another (more significant) storm system will pass late day 7. Cooler air will quickly flow in behind this system. Early precipitation estimates range from light (0.25″ range GFS) to moderate (0.70″ range Euro).

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Frosty Mornings Ahead…

While some communities experienced widespread frost Sunday morning, most folks around central Indiana escaped the frosty threat, as clouds hung tough around the immediate area.

Wednesday and Thursday mornings will provide another chance of frost across more widespread portions of the region.  We forecast 37 degrees Wednesday morning officially at IND and 38 degrees Thursday morning.  That said, outlying communities can expect to fall into the lower to middle 30s both mornings.  We suggest to plan on more widespread frosty conditions the next couple of mornings compared to that of Sunday morning when an official Frost Advisory was in effect.

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Light Showers To Begin The Week Otherwise Cool And Dry…

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44/ 62

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Reinforcing Cool Air…After a cool weekend, a reinforcing shot of unseasonably chilly air will move into the region later this evening.  A couple sprinkles or light showers are possible both today and Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will remain light for those that do see a shower.  The bigger story will be the cool air as highs Tuesday only top out in the lower to middle 50s.  Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings as skies clear and lows dip into the 30s.

Extended Stretch Of Dry Weather…High pressure will supply lots of sunshine and an extended stretch of dry weather Tuesday night through the weekend.  Additionally, after an unseasonably chill start to the period, temperatures will moderate, reaching above normal levels over the weekend.  All-in-all, a very pleasant weekend appears to be waiting on deck.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Interested in private weather consulting?  E-mail us at bill@indywx.com.

This was the peak weekend for fall foliage across many central Indiana communities.  Lots of vibrant colors remain and with an overall dry, cool week upcoming we should be able to hold onto that color for a while longer.  John Salewicz sent in this beautiful photo taken in Zionsville over the weekend showcasing the color.  Thanks, John!

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IndySportsReport.com Colts Forecast

Colts v. Bengals Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

10.19.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  After a gloomy Saturday, today will feature bright sunshine and a continuation of cooler than average autumn air.  Needless to say plan on packing the jackets and sweaters for that important tailgate.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long!

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Partly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
Temp: 45-50 Temp: 52 Temp:  57
Wind:  W 5 MPH Wind: SW 5-10 MPH Wind:  SW 5-10 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.10”

IndyWx.com 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

IndyWx.com 2014-2015 Winter Outlook
Issued: 10.19.14
Author: Bill McMillan- Chief Forecaster

2014-2015 Winter Outlook

Whitestown, IN-  The time has come yet again for us to post the annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook.  After last winter, I know some of you may cringe at the sound of that word- “winter.”  The brutal winter of ’13-’14 was one for the record books around these parts in terms of snowfall totals, duration of snowpack, arctic cold, etc.  Winter 2013-2014 won’t be forgotten in quite some time, if ever.  All of that said, no one can stop time and another winter awaits on deck…

Before we go further, it’s important to note that any long range, seasonal, forecast is a risky business.  Only the Good Lord above knows what the future holds.  While we’ll give you our best educated idea below, it’s important to note that this isn’t a forecast that’s “etched in stone” by a long shot.  We can highlight items that have our attention and suggest the way the winter pattern may go, but overall confidence in any seasonal forecast could (and should) be classified as low when compared to the day-to-day weather forecasts you see here or from your favorite weather outlet.  One final note before we sort through some of the data- we suggest raising an eyebrow to any winter outlook you may see out there that doesn’t list specific numbers (in regards to snowfall or temperatures) and/ or uses broad-brushed terms such as “harsh” or the “worst winter we’ve seen” without substantial data and numbers that back up such a call.  There’s simply no room for sensationalism in this industry, and, unfortunately, it’s becoming more common these days.

Lets dig into some of what has our attention…

ENSO Discussion/ Central and North Pacific Profile:

It wasn’t too long ago that some outlets were touting a major El Nino (represented by water temperatures that are above normal in the Equatorial Pacific) was on the way.  Models that, at one point, did happen to show a major El Nino are continuing to “back down” to a more reasonable weak-to-moderate event.  First, no El Nino is like another.  Furthermore, it’s also important to note that most models are keying in on what’s called a Modoki El Nino (or an El Nino that features anomalous warming in the central Pacific waters).  Big differences take place between an east-based event, central-based event, or west-based event.

As of mid October, the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO forecast suggests a weak to borderline moderate El Nino event is on the table this winter:

Plume

The European forecast model seasonal forecast shows the developing Modoki El Nino as we head into the winter:  Note the warmer anomalies shifting west as we transition from November, December, January to December, January, February:

NDJEuroSSTForecast

DJFEuroSST

Perhaps an equally important factor in the winter pattern across our neck of the woods has to do with what’s going on with water temperatures in the central and north Pacific.  The memorable (good or bad) winter of 2013-2014 was dominated by a persistent dip, or trough, in the jet stream steering winds across the Mid West and East.  This was powered, in large part, by anomalously warm water in the northeast PAC region waters.  This promoted an Alaskan ridge for the majority of the winter which played a role in dislodging one arctic air mass after another southeast.

Note the current SST anomalies as of 10.18.14:

CurrentSSTAnomalies

The central Pacific cool anomalies coupled with the warmer north and northeast Pacific anomalies lead us to believe the pattern may at least resemble (remember no winter pattern is identical to another with all of the “wild cards” in play) itself to that of last year, including plenty of arctic air intrusions.

* When it comes to developing analog years (we talk about this below), we must admit that we don’t have nearly as much experience to lean on when it comes to the impact the central/ north Pacific water profile has on our weather compared to that of the ENSO state.

Analog years:

In developing the 2014-2015 winter outlook, we’re leaning on the following analog years: 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, and 2009-2010.  Analog years give us similar patterns of years past to help formulate an idea of what may lie ahead.

Again, no winter is identical to another, but we can draw ideas of what we may, or may not, see by looking back at past similar patterns.

Sorting Through Additional Data:

While the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) sea surface temperature anomalies would suggest a big ticket winter looms, the model is actually contradicting itself with its’ forecast surface temperatures for this winter.  Blowtorch, anyone?!

Image 1- seasonal Dec. Jan. and Feb. sea surface temperature anomalies; Image 2- seasonal Dec. Jan. and Feb. surface temperature anomalies

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The September (latest version as of this post) JAMSTEC makes much more sense with itself and our overall ideas as winter approaches.

Image 1- projected Dec. Jan. and Feb. sea surface temperature anomalies; Image 2- projected Dec. Jan. and Feb. temperatures anomalies; Image 3- projected Dec. Jan. and Feb. precipitation anomalies

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There have been studies published that suggest an early northern hemisphere snow and ice pack can impact blocking in the winter months and the resulting pattern.  Northern hemisphere snow pack is off to a bang up start.

Links to research on this topic and a look back at the last (6) mid Octobers for comparative purposes:

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Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Chart as of 10.18.14:

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What does this all mean to me?

Hoosier snow lovers have to love the trend we’re on- 4 of the past 5 winters have featured above normal snow here.  As we started, take any long range seasonal outlook with a grain of salt.  That said, there’s a “tad” :-) higher than normal confidence in this year’s forecast.  The combination of analog years, a Modoki El Nino event, and the temperature profile in the northern Pacific waters would imply a cold and snowy winter (when compared to normal) awaits for our region.

  • IndyWx.com forecasts meteorological winter temperatures (Dec., Jan., Feb.) to average 2 degrees below normal (Fahrenheit).
  • Average snowfall at IND is 25.9″.  IndyWx.com forecasts 35″ of snow (first flake to last flake).

Remember that we’ll be here all winter long producing daily forecasts and in-depth winter storm discussions.  In addition, if your industry is impacted by winter weather, please be sure to shoot us an e-mail at bill@indywx.com to learn ways about how we can help your business with customized winter weather consulting.  Also, be sure to follow us on Twitter @IndyWX for more “behind the scenes weather…”

References:

  • http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
  • http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en
  • http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
  • http://www.weatherbell.com
  • http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=localcli
  • http://www.ecmwf.int