• Pleasant Air; Evening Storms For Some…

    Highlights:

    • Scattered storms this evening
    • Pleasant air continues for now
    • More humid and stormy by late week

    Pleasant Start Ends With Storms For Some…We couldn’t ask for more beautiful weather conditions for the last week of June.  Hopefully you were able to get outside and enjoy these pleasant conditions over the weekend.  If not, you still have a couple days to do so.  Despite the sunny start to the day, enough upper level energy will move overhead this evening to help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Initially these storms will fire over northern Indiana before settling south through the evening.  We think greatest coverage across central parts of the state will arrive between 6p-10p before these storms push south and diminish.  Localized brief heavy downpours are possible, but, overall, this won’t be a significant, widespread heavy rain event.

    We’re back to dry and pleasant conditions through Wednesday, but humidity will be on the rise by Thursday and so will shower and thunderstorm chances.  We’ll have to monitor the potential of a couple rounds of gusty storms and heavy rain late week and we’ll have to fine tune timing as we get closer.  Unsettled weather conditions will continue into the holiday weekend ahead.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall:  0.00″
    • Rainfall:  1.50″-2.00″


  • Another Week Is Upon Us; Looking Ahead…

    I.  The new work week will open up with a continuation of unseasonably cool temperatures.  Speaking of temperatures, how nice has it been to have air equivalent of late-September as we get set to wrap up the month of June?!

    II:  A weak upper level disturbance will drift overhead Monday afternoon and help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours.  Not everyone will get wet Monday evening, but a couple gusty storms are possible.  Here’s a look at the radar valid at 6p Monday.

    III.  After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better shower and thunderstorm chances will return to our forecast for late week into next weekend.  Additionally, temperatures and humidity levels will return to closer to seasonal norms.

    IV.  An active pattern will remain with us as we progress through the first half of June.  A busy NW flow aloft will likely send multiple storm clusters southeast into the region and we’ll have to be mindful for the potential of some of these storm complexes containing strong-to-severe storms and excessive rainfall.


  • Early Fall-Like Weather Continues…

    Highlights:

    • Early fall-like feel
    • Shower chance to open the work week
    • More humid late week

    Beautiful Weather Continues…To help put this weather into perspective- our average low and high in late September falls in the lower 50s with highs in the lower to middle 70s.  For the next few days, an early fall-like feel will grip central Indiana, and you won’t hear many folks complaining about it!  (Personally, I say let’s skip right to those crisp late September days and football season :-))!  Despite a weak upper level disturbance creating a shower chance Monday, we’re dry through midweek.

    A return southwesterly air flow will arrive on the scene by late week and this will serve to help boost temperatures and humidity levels, along with assist in creating a better chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late week into next weekend.  Let yours truly worry about that and you be sure to enjoy this rare late June air!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00-1.50″


  • Heavy Rain Gives Way To A Gorgeous Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Heavy rain and storms through the daytime
    • Much cooler and drier air on the way
    • Pleasant week ahead

    Tropical Downpours Today…The remnant tropical moisture of Cindy is lifting northeast this morning while a cold front is dropping south.  The combination of these two weather features will result in an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms across central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected.  Thankfully, this won’t be a long duration event and a much drier air mass will invade from northwest to southeast by evening.  We’ll easily notice this drier trend as dew points go from about as high (lower-middle 70s) as we ever see them this morning to a very crisp feel (dew points in the 50s) tonight.

    The cooler and drier theme will continue through the weekend into the majority of the upcoming week ahead.  As noted in previous discussions, a fast-moving northwest flow will be responsible for sending a couple of minor upper level disturbances southeast into the region.  For the most part, we believe scattered showers will remain north of central Indiana until Monday afternoon and evening.  While this won’t be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination, a couple of showers are possible.

    Our air flow will eventually shift around to the southwest by the middle of the week and this will begin to send a warmer and increasingly moist air mass north by Thursday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ (locally heavier amounts)


  • VIDEO: Heavy Rain Develops Overnight Into Friday…

    The combination of an approaching cold front to our north and remnant tropical moisture from Cindy will serve to enhance rainfall amounts across central Indiana late tonight into early Friday evening.  A much cooler and drier air mass will arrive Friday evening and set the stage for an incredible, almost early fall-like, stretch of weather through the weekend into the first half of next week.


  • Friday Squeeze Play; Much Cooler Air Coming…

    Highlights:

    • Breezy, warm Thursday
    • Heavy rain Friday
    • Drier and much cooler air on deck

    Heavy Rains Likely Friday…A warm front is draped to our north this morning and this is helping spark a few showers across northern portions of the state.  Here on the “home front,” with the exception of an isolated shower or storm, most should remain rain-free through the day, locally.  Things begin to change late tonight into Friday as the region feels the effects of a “squeeze play” between Cindy’s remnant tropical moisture tracking through the TN Valley and an approaching cold front to our north.  The combination of the two will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms across central IN.  With a tropical nature to the airmass Friday, some of these storms will produce locally heavy rainfall.  Most widespread rain and storm coverage should occur Friday morning into the afternoon before a drying trend develops from northwest to southeast Friday evening.

    Our cold front will push southeast and clear the state Friday night which will allow a much drier and cooler air mass to settle in for the weekend, continuing into next week.  You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone complaining about our weather through the period as a stretch of beautiful summer conditions take on an almost early fall-like feel through Tuesday.  While we’ll have to keep an eye on a sneaky disturbance riding into the region on the fast northwest flow (could spark a quick passing shower), most of the period should remain rain-free.  Eventually our air flow will shift to a southwesterly direction by the middle of next week and this will help transport an increasingly moist feel back into the region.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  1.00″ – 2.00″ 


  • Active Weather Pattern Remains; Much Cooler To Close June…

    Highlights:

    • PM storms
    • Dry midweek
    • Wet close to the work week
    • Much cooler air looms

    Busy Times…Upper level energy and just enough instability could spark another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Similar to Monday, these will be quick-movers, but shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.

    Dry weather will return through midweek and while pleasant air will still be with us Wednesday, a more humid feel will develop Thursday.  Showers and thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the picture Thursday downstate, but we believe most of central Indiana should remain rain-free.

    We’ll be in a “squeeze play” of sorts to close the work week and head into the weekend.  A cold front will drop in from the north while remnant tropical moisture moves north out of the Deep South.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms should result, including the potential of locally heavy rain.

    The big story over the weekend into the last week of the month will be unseasonably cool air.  Enough upper level energy will be around in a fast northwest flow aloft to lead to shower chances Sunday, otherwise early next week looks stunning- including plentiful sunshine, dry air, and unseasonably cool temperatures.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Refreshing Open To The Week; Scattered Storm Chances Remain…

    Highlights:

    • Feelin’ nice
    • Scattered storms remain
    • More widespread storms late week

    Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so.  Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday.  With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.

    Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb.  While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point.  We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain).  Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week.  Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Upcoming Week Headliners…

    I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

    A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

    II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

    Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

    III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

    Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

    IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

    Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.