• Rain Chances Go Up Late…

    Highlights:

    • Shower and t-storm chances increase late
    • Another storm system arrives Monday afternoon
    • Late-week questions

    Active Period…Most of Saturday across central Indiana will feature dry conditions.  It’s not until we get to Saturday evening and into the overnight that shower and thunderstorm coverage will begin to really increase in earnest.  Periods of showers continue Sunday (especially the first of the day day).

    A dry start to Monday will give way to increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms arriving by the afternoon and evening hours.  This fast-moving area of low pressure will then depart as quickly as it arrives and leave us with dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

    We’re then left with late-week questions.  The GFS is significantly cooler than the European and we’ll craft this portion of the forecast with a blend- leaning more in the direction of the warmer European solution.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday into Friday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″


  • Turning Warmer, But Unsettled…

    Highlights:

    • Another cold morning
    • Turning unsettled
    • Warmer heading into early next week

    Warmer, But Rain Chances Return…Before we enjoy the warmer temperatures to close the week, we have one more very cold morning to go through.  Many central Indiana neighborhoods are once again starting the day in the mid to upper 20s.  Though we’ll add more clouds to our Thursday forecast (compared to all of that Wednesday sunshine), it won’t prevent temperatures from moderating close to seasonal levels later this afternoon.

    Though we’ll mention a quick passing shower chance Friday, most of the day should be dry and the bigger story will actually be temperatures that approach 70° by the afternoon with periods of sunshine.  Sounds like a recipe for getting out of the office early and finding a local patio, huh?!

    Unfortunately, shower chances will be on the uptick this weekend and while it won’t rain the entire time, really any time of the weekend is fair game for the potential of a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm.  As of now, best shower coverage should be Sunday.

    Shower and thunderstorms chances continue early next week (Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning) before drier air and slightly cooler temperatures return the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Wednesday Morning Rambles…

    1.)  Temperatures this morning are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago.  Many central IN neighborhoods are waking up to temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

    2.)  Speaking of cold, to-date, March is running slightly colder than average (by 1.1°).  Note the spring and summer-like warmth across the SW.  “Pieces” of that warmth will eject northeast in modified fashion late March into April.

    3.)  High pressure will supply a dry, but cold Wednesday.  Highs will run close to 10° below average (lower 40s), but at least we’ll enjoy the sun!

    4.)  Temperatures will begin to warm as we progress through the latter portions of the week.  We’ll be near seasonal norms Thursday (low 50s), and above normal Friday into the weekend (mid-upper 60s).  With the warmer air, rain and storm chances will also be on the increase.  As of now, we target best rain chances late Saturday into Sunday.  A couple thunderstorms are also possible.  Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ seem like a good bet with locally heavier amounts.

    5.)  This is just the beginning of an active stretch of weather to wrap up the month of March.  (3) additional storms will have to be monitored next week.  Accordingly, precipitation anomalies will run above normal.


  • Bumpy Start To The Work Week…

    Highlights:

    • Stormy open to the work week
    • Colder midweek
    • Storms return this weekend

    Couple Rounds Of Storms Possible Today…Radar this morning is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms sinking south out of northern Indiana.  Expect to get wet in, and around, the city as the rush hour gets into full swing.  We’ll monitor this evening for the potential of another round of thunderstorms that’ll, once again, originate across northern IN before tracking southeast.  We don’t anticipate widespread severe weather with these rounds of storms, but small hail is certainly possible in some of the storms.

    Tuesday will be an overall quieter day, but a cold front will pass with a shower chance Tuesday evening.  We’ll then note a northerly wind shift and a much colder air mass Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  Highs Wednesday will run 10°-15º below average.  If you’re not a fan of the cold, no need to fret as a warmer southerly flow will develop Thursday afternoon and put us in position to return to seasonable levels for highs Thursday after the chilly start.  We’ll then run much warmer than average this weekend, but it comes with a wet and stormy trade off.  Periods of heavy rain are possible Saturday into Sunday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″


  • Weekend Improvements…

    Highlights:

    • Chilly Saturday
    • Brighter Sunday
    • Unsettled week ahead

    Improving Weekend Weather…The second half of the weekend will most certainly be more pleasant than the way we’re opening up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a potential quick-hitting shower, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast through the afternoon hours.  Drier air will then push in this evening and help set-up a very pleasant Sunday.  After a chilly Saturday, lower 50s sure will feel nice with that sunshine Sunday.

    Unfortunately, we won’t be able to hang onto the sunny conditions for long.  Clouds increase Monday and evening showers develop.  Tuesday is a transition day and we’ll include mention of showers Tuesday morning before drier, colder air builds south Tuesday night and Wednesday.

    A fast transition to a moist southerly flow will greet us for the latter portions of the week and we’ll ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Friday as a cold front approaches.  It’ll also be very windy (non-thunderstorm gusts of 40 MPH+).

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

    Our friend, Moe, sent these images from earlier in the week just north of Frankfort.  Despite the unseasonably cold weather we’ve been dealing with, these shots, separated only by a few hours, illustrate the power of that increasingly high March sun angle.


  • Gloomy St. Patrick’s Day Gives Way To A Brighter Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Wet, raw St. Patrick’s Day
    • Brighter weekend ahead
    • Shower chances return next week

    Weekend Improvements Ahead…Today won’t be the classic “chamber of commerce” weather day across central Indiana.  A brief wintry mix impacted central and eastern portions of the state earlier this morning and will give way to “showery” weather with blustery conditions and an overall raw feel.  It won’t rain the entire day, but plan on packing the wet weather gear as you venture out to your March Madness and St. Patrick’s Day parties.  Stay safe out there!

    Drier times will return for the weekend as high pressure slowly builds overhead.  Saturday will feature a couple of showers- especially across eastern portions of the state through the early afternoon.  However, brighter conditions will develop late in the day and by Sunday, mostly sunny skies will return.  Along with the increasing Sunday sunshine, temperatures will top 50° for the first time since March 8th.

    Unfortunately the sunshine won’t last into the early stages of the work week as moisture returns and showers follow Monday into Tuesday.  We’ll turn briefly colder Wednesday before a moist southerly flow returns Thursday with another round of showers.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Thursday Morning Weather Rambles…

    1.)  All of a sudden what was a warm March has revered big time.  Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 1° below normal on the month and will continue to fall further once today’s data is factored in.  Always fun to see Mother Nature “balance” things out.

    2.)  It’s another cold start to the day with many central Indiana neighborhoods in the teens and hard freezes extending south into Florida this morning.

    3.)  Sunshine can be expected today and after the frigid beginning, a moderating trend will begin this afternoon that will send temperatures into the lower to middle 40s.  That’s still close to 10° below average for daytime highs, but will feel much better than what we’ve been dealing with over the past several days.  Add in that high March sun angle and it’ll actually be a very pleasant afternoon.

    4.)  Unfortunately, we won’t hang on to the sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day.  A warm front will lift northeast through the region during the overnight and lead to an increase in clouds by evening.  A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will impact central IN predawn Friday morning before transitioning to showers mid-to-late morning.  “Light” is the key word here with models suggesting less than 0.20″ total.  By Friday afternoon we’re back to dry times.

    5.)  We’ll turn a touch cooler Saturday and it’ll be a blustery day, as well.  A couple of early snow showers are possible across east and northeast portions of the state before afternoon sunshine returns.  High pressure settles in overhead Saturday evening and will set up a nice second half of the weekend- lots of sunshine and milder temperatures by Sunday (lower 50s).

    6.)  Looking ahead, the quiet times will be hard to come by as we progress through the latter portions of the month.  Both the new JMA Weeklies (shown below) and other ensemble guidance is bullish on a wetter than average close to the month, and also one that features wild temperature swings.  Thoughts shift back to severe prospects, especially for our friends to our south and the potential of backlash wet snow showers in the colder air.  From a temperature perspective, it’s a pattern that will be very “transient” with no true long-lasting periods of significant warmth, or cold- relative to average.


  • In The Deep Freeze…

    Highlights:

    • Morning snow showers end
    • Slowly moderating temperatures
    • Wet St. Patrick’s Day
    • Sunshine returns this weekend

    Heavy Winter Gear Required…The calendar may say mid-March, but Old Man Winter refuses to go away without having the last word.  To put things into perspective, our forecast high of 32° today is colder than our average low for the 15th (33°)!  To make matters worse, gusty north winds are pushing the wind chill factor into the single digits this morning.  Bundle up!  Moving forward, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue through the morning hours before ending as we progress through the afternoon.

    After a cold start Thursday, a moderating trend will develop by afternoon.  Plentiful sunshine should be with us Thursday before clouds increase late in the day in advance of a warm front lifting northeast.  Showers will develop Friday (could begin as a touch of freezing rain, but not expecting problems Thursday night/ early Friday morning), but temperatures will actually reach seasonal levels despite the wet, breezy conditions.

    Sunshine returns this weekend and though it’ll be cooler Saturday when compared to St. Patrick’s Day, considering how cold we’ve been of late, it won’t feel that bad. Early morning snow showers will target eastern and northeastern portions of the state before sunshine returns.

    The next weather maker will provide showers Monday before we focus in on the middle of next week with potential of a more significant storm to deal with…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″


  • Quiet Start Gives Way To Localized Snow Squalls This Afternoon…

    Tuesday is off to a frigid, but quiet start to the day.  Temperatures are in the upper 10s for most central Indiana neighborhoods with sunshine to start the day.  Gusty north winds are putting our wind chills into the single digits this morning.

    As we progress through the afternoon hours, clouds will increase and scattered snow showers will develop.  Highs will remain below freezing today- generally in the upper 20s to around 30.

    With very cold air aloft, a lobe of upper level energy, and some lake enhancement, scattered snow showers will develop this afternoon and continue into the evening hours.  Additionally, snow squall parameters are high and locally intense bursts of snow can also be expected as we move through the afternoon and evening hours.  These won’t impact everyone, but where they do occur, expect rapidly reduced visibility and a quick accumulation.  Forecast radar shows this potential as we move into the afternoon hours, with a couple of lake effect streamers continuing Wednesday morning.

    Forecast radar 5p.
    Forecast radar 3a.

    Wednesday will be another frigid day, especially by March standards.  We’ll focus in on the morning hours for the most widespread snow shower activity with quieter times expected as we move through the day.


  • A Wintry Week…

    Highlights:

    • Snow develops
    • Bitterly cold air for March
    • St. Patrick’s Day showers

    Snow Develops…Drier air is “eating away” at the snow shield as it attempts to advance eastward this morning.  Eventually, we’ll moisten the atmosphere up enough to allow snow to push into the greater Indianapolis region by late morning.  Snow will accumulate this morning, but marginal temperatures, that high March sun angle, and the fact most of the snow will be falling during the afternoon, we don’t anticipate accumulation issues this afternoon.  Reinforcing cold air will filter back into the region tonight and last through mid week.  With this late season arctic air, additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will continue.  With all of that said, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing accumulation forecast.  Expect an inch, or less, for the city, itself, increasing to 2″-5″ for north-central Indiana (where lake effect will add to the totals) for storm totals through Wednesday.

    Dry conditions return late Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold will continue.  Our next storm system arrives on the scene St. Patrick’s Day and with blustery, chilly conditions in place, showers added to the mix will feature “raw” weather conditions.  As it stands now, we are going with a more optimistic approach for the weekend, including a dry forecast with increasing sunshine.  After the cold week ahead, we will have earned it!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″