• Reviewing The Latest JMA Weeklies…

    The new JMA Weeklies paint a wet and active picture for Week 1, but begin to suggest we get into a milder, drier pattern as we push into the middle and latter portions of May…

    Week 1:

    The “mean” upper air pattern places coastal ridges with a cool trough settling into the central.  The end result will be a wet and active regime, locally, this weekend into next week.  Though we’ll see a “spike” in temperatures Sunday, the overall theme is a chilly one as we open the month of May.  In fact, temperatures will trend significantly cooler than average as we push into next week.

    Week 2:

    While it still looks chilly (compared to average), the JMA Weeklies suggest a “calmer” weather pattern moving in.  Wet anomalies are noted through the Rockies and Central, but a drier trend across the east, including the Ohio Valley.

    Weeks 3-4:

    Wet times remain across the Central and spread into more of the southern tier, as well.  Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are also forecast across the Southeast.  Budding warmth seems to develop over the West.


  • Busy Weather Pattern…

    Highlights:

    • AM showers then cooler and windy
    • Stormy weekend ahead
    • Cooler next week

    Busy Times In The Weather Office…A cold front will sweep through the state this morning with lingering showers and an abrupt wind shift.  Gusty westerly winds and cooler air (we’ve already seen our high for the day) will be with us this afternoon, along with a variably cloudy sky.

    Unfortunately, we don’t have many changes to the ongoing idea of hefty weekend rains.  A warm front will begin to slowly lift north Friday into Saturday and this will be the focal point for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Overall coverage and intensity of rain and thunderstorms will increase as we rumble through the second half of Friday.  A couple of storms could be strong to severe- especially across southern Indiana Friday afternoon and night.

    The aforementioned warm front will lift north and be located across the southern Great Lakes region Sunday.  This will put our neck of the woods squarely into the warm and humid air mass Sunday.  Though storm coverage will likely be more scattered in nature when compared to Saturday, heavy thunderstorms will develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  With a deep-rooted tropical connection along with saturated soils in place from early weekend rains, flood and flash flood potential will be high as we go into early portions of next week.

    As we open up the work week, we’ll shift gears from a moisture-rich southerly flow to one that’s out of the northwest and much cooler.  Showers will continue through Monday.  Our next storm system will then set it’s eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.50″


  • Dry Time Is Limited…

    Highlights:

    • Unsettled times ahead
    • Weekend heavy rain
    • Much cooler and windy early next week

    Enjoy The Dry Time While You Can…While most of Wednesday will remain rain-free, we do note the potential of a diminishing line of thunderstorms that could impact portions of far northwest sections of the state Wednesday morning.  As mentioned, these should diminish relatively quickly and give way to a mostly dry day.  A cold front will approach the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that time.  Briefly drier air will arrive Thursday evening into Friday and we should wrap up the work week mainly dry.

    We’ll take whatever dry weather we can get as the weekend still looks wet and stormy.  We discussed the weekend setup this morning and thoughts haven’t changed a bit.  Today’s model data continues to suggest we’re looking at periods of heavy rainfall with widespread weekend totals of 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts possible).  Of the two days, Saturday appears to offer up the most widespread rains, but we caution that the scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop Sunday will have the potential of depositing hefty totals in relative short order.  Due to the projected steering currents, we’re also concerned for the possibility of “training” of heavy rain and that would quickly create a flash flood concern in localized areas.  Stay tuned.  Another item of interest is the possibility of “bust potential” with regard to the temperature forecast Saturday.  Latest modeling wants to keep the warm front just south of the immediate region for most of the day now and, as such, we’ve trended cooler with Saturday’s temperatures before that warm southwesterly air flow wins out Sunday.

    The warmth won’t last long as we quickly transition to a cooler west and northwest regime to open the work week.  Along with the much cooler air, scattered showers and strong and gusty winds will be with us.  We’ll finally begin to calm down with a very pleasant Tuesday expected.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 3.00″ – 4.00″


  • Weekend Heavy Rain Threat…

    We still have a few nice days to enjoy this week before our forecast takes an increasingly wet shift as we progress through the weekend.  As a side note, we still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but this shouldn’t be a significant event, locally.

    What will become an increasing concern is the threat of periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms this weekend.  The overall setup is a classic one for widespread heavy rain.

    An area of high pressure will be located off the Mid Atlantic coast while surface low pressure develops in the southern Plains and tracks north over the weekend.  The combination of these two ingredients will help pull abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Ohio Valley.  With a true Gulf connection, moisture-rich air will overspread the region this weekend.  In addition to feeling truly muggy for the first time this year, this will also aid in periods of heavy rain this weekend.

    Precipitable water values will approach 2″ at times this weekend and that’s plenty enough to create a localized flash flood concern.

    From this distance, it appears like widespread 2″ to 3″ of rain will fall over the weekend, but localized heavier totals are expected where thunderstorms “train” over the same areas.  While it won’t rain the entire weekend, times of wet weather will outnumber dry hours and if you live near a creek or stream, keep abreast of this developing weather situation as significant water rise is expected over the weekend.


  • Nice Open To The Week Before A Stormy Finish…

    Highlights:

    • Sun-filled open to the week
    • Midweek storms
    • Warm, humid, and stormy weekend

    Dry Open To The Week Transitions To A Stormy Finish…High pressure and a refreshing northeast flow will continue to dominate our weather as we open up the work week.  Dry skies will prevail and the crisp mornings will warm quickly into the 70s both today and Tuesday.

    A cold front will approach late Wednesday and help showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

    We’ll be in between storm systems Friday and a pleasant close to the work week will result.  That said, a warm front will lift north and move through the region Saturday and this will help shower and thunderstorm coverage increase significantly Saturday morning.  A much warmer and more humid feel will overspread the area once the front blows through and an unstable airmass will continue to promote shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday.  Locally heavy rains are a good bet this weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″


  • Quiet Open To The Work Week Turns Stormy By Midweek…

    After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead.  Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon.  Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon.  Enjoy!

    High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week.  This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine.  With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings.  Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

    High pressure will dominate our early-week weather.

    A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period.  Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.

    Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5″+ Wednesday and support the threat of locally heavy rain.

    We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north.  Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend.  We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.

    Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.


  • Chilly Saturday Gives Way To Improving Weather Sunday…

    Highlights:

    • Showers south today
    • Unseasonably cool and blustery
    • Increasing sunshine Sunday
    • Midweek storms

    Jackets Required Today, But Improving Weather Tomorrow…A stiff northeast wind is “eating away” at the northern extent of rain today.  Steadiest rains will fall across the southern third of the state, but a couple of showers may make it as far north as Indianapolis later this afternoon.  The bigger story will easily be the brisk northeast flow and unseasonably chilly air.  In fact, we’re waking up to wind chills in the 30s this morning. Jackets are required today.

    Drier air arrives on the scene tonight and clouds will decrease overnight, paving way for a beautiful Sunday.  Expect plentiful sunshine and moderating temperatures.  Dry and pleasant weather continues into midweek before an approaching cold front delivers our next chance of thunderstorms Wednesday evening.

    Another fast-moving weather maker will deliver thunderstorm chances to close the work week.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Jackets Required: Cool And Increasingly Wet Close To The Week…

    We’ll wrap the work week up with filtered morning sunshine, but clouds will quickly lower and thicken as the day progresses and give way to showers later tonight.

    It’ll be a much cooler day today (temperatures are running close to 20° cooler than this time Thursday morning) with highs only topping out around 60 for the city, itself, and only into the mid to upper 50s across north-central Indiana.

    More widespread rain showers will move in overnight into Saturday.  Heaviest rain will fall across the southern half of the state (1″-2″ possible).  Factor in a strong and gusty easterly wind, temperatures only in the 40s for much of the day, and periods of rain and you have the makings for a downright “raw” Saturday.

    The good news here is that we still think things dry out for the second half of the weekend.  The last round of showers should pull off to the east Saturday night and pave way for a dry Sunday, including increasing sunshine as morning gives way to afternoon.

    With the increasing sunshine Sunday, temperatures will respond closer to average highs in the middle 60s.  After we spend most of Saturday in the 40s that sure will feel nice!


  • Thursday Storms Before A Cooler Trend…

    Highlights:

    • Strong storms possible Thursday afternoon
    • Cooler close to the work week
    • Raw Saturday
    • Delightful open to next week

    Thursday Rumbles…While storms have pressed through the northern portions of the state today, we’ve enjoyed a couple days of pleasant weather across most of central Indiana.  That will come to an end Thursday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop, especially during the afternoon into the evening hours.  A few of these storms could become strong-to-severe, including damaging wind and large hail potential.  The cold front will pass Thursday night and help usher in a briefly drier and much cooler air mass to close out the work week.

    Our next storm system will pass south of the region Saturday and result in thickening and lowering clouds Friday evening, and showers Saturday.  With a stiff east wind, showers at times, and temperatures well below average, we have the makings for a downright “raw” spring day Saturday.  The second half of the weekend will easily be “the pick” as we return to drier air and increasing sunshine Sunday afternoon.

    Early next week looks to get off to a pleasant start, including plentiful sunshine and moderating temperatures.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″