Upper Level Disturbance…An upper level disturbance will help lead to better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and again Saturday. While everyone won’t get wet, more neighborhoods can expect to see a passing storm than the past couple of days. Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels.
Drying Out And Warming Up…We’ll build a drier and warmer picture into your forecast for the back half of the weekend on into the first half of the new work week. High pressure should supply a partly cloudy sky and while temperatures will moderate from the cool readings of late, they certainly won’t be too hot for early August. All-in-all, very comfortable readings can be expected with lots of sunshine.
Watching A Potential Late Week Storm…Forecast model guidance is a bit inconsistent at this time period, but we’re still eyeing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the end of next week. More details to come as we move forward.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Upper level energy will move overhead late today and Saturday and help lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
The following information was written by the fine folks over at the Indianapolis National Weather Service office. July 2014 was coolest on record at Indianapolis.
July 2014 Climate Summary – Coolest on Record at Indy
*COOLEST ON RECORD at Indianapolis*
66thDriest on record at Indianapolis
A strong cold front passed through central Indiana on the 1st, ushering in a cool and dry airmass that lasted across the region through most of the holiday weekend that followed. High temperatures remained in the 70s for most locations through the 5th. A modest warming trend developed during the following week as high temperatures rose consistently into the lower and middle 80s, warmer but still below normal for early July.
The passage of yet another strong cold front by July standards and the return of an upper level trough brought another stretch of cooler weather to the Hoosier state beginning on the 15th as some locations across northern portions of central Indiana were unable to rise out of the 60s. Highs over the next five days generally stayed below 80 degrees. A surge of warmer and more humid air arrived with an upper level ridge beginning on the 20th and culminating on the 22nd with the warmest high temperatures of the month, ranging from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The passage of yet another cold front on the 23rd brought highs back down, alternating between the 70s and lower to mid 80s through the remainder of July. Low temperatures alternated through the 50s and 60s through the month, with only one night, the 13th, remaining above 70 degrees.
For Indianapolis, the first 90 degree day of the year remained elusive. The city came closest to hitting it on the 22nd, when the temperature officially topped out at its warmest high of the month, 88 degrees. This marked the coolest max daily high temperature for July since 2000 when the warmest high only made it to 87 degrees.
Overall, the temperature statistics at Indianapolis provided a stark contrast to just two years ago when Indianapolis experienced their warmest July on record. The average temperature of 70.1 degrees was good for the coolest July on record, a half degree cooler than the previous record from July 1947, and almost a whopping 14 degrees cooler than our blistering July in 2012. High temperatures remained below 80 degrees for a record 16 days during the month, breaking the old mark of 14 days with sub-80 degree highs from July 2009. Even more amazing, high temperatures made it at or above 85 degrees on just 5 days this month. Low temperatures fell below 60 degrees on 13 days this month, the most sub-60 degree lows in July since 1979 (11).
July 2014 Avg Temp
July 2014 Difference from Normal
88 on 22
52 on 29
86 on 7 and 22
49 on 4
88 on 22
47 on 29
88 on 22
50 on 25
88 on 13 and 22
51 on 17 and 25
90 on 22
50 on 17
Indy – Eagle Crk.
87 on 22
53 on 4 and 17
At Indianapolis, 4 days had above normal average temperatures, 26 days below normal temperatures and 1 day was at normal.
July 2014 was the coolest in the Indianapolis area since 1871.
July rainfall was above normal in southern Indiana and below normal in northern Indiana. Monthly totals generally measured 1 to 4 inches north of a Terre Haute to Liberty Indiana line in central and northern Indiana to 3 to more than 6 inches south of this line in southern Indiana. Much of the state received between 2 and 5 inches of rain during July.
The wet areas of June dried out during July as rain became more sporadic especially in northern Indiana. Showers and thunderstorms during the 1st-3rd, 7th-8th and 12th-14thdropped from a few hundredths to over 3 inches of rain for each event. A dry period set in beginning on the 13th in northern Indiana and on the 15th in central and southern Indiana and continued through the 23rd. In northern Indiana, the dry period persisted for the remainder of July in several areas.
Rains returned to central and southern Indiana beginning on the 23rd. Rainfall of 1 to nearly 3 inches fell in much of the Indianapolis metropolitan area on the 23rd and caused minor flooding along Pleasant Run on the east side of Indianapolis. Local flooding occurred in Jackson and Jennings Counties following 2 to more than 3 inches of rainfall on the 26th and 27th. This was the only flooding during July.
Previously, the Wabash River reached bankfull levels from Montezuma to Riverton in west central Indiana as a result of rains at the very end of June and beginning of July. After the 5th, the rivers in central Indiana remained below bankfull levels.
July 2014 Precipitation
July 2014 Difference from Normal
Longest Dry Stretch
1.61 on 23
8 days 15-22
0.75 on 29
8 days 15-22
1.23 on 8
4 days 15-18
0.76 on 7
8 days 15-22
1.41 on 14
8 days 15-22
1.75 on 23
8 days 15-22
Indy – Eagle Crk.
1.09 on 23
8 days 15-22
July 2014 was the 66th driest in the Indianapolis area since weather records began in 1871.
It didn’t take long for severe weather to impact central Indiana in July, with a line of storms producing damaging winds impacted the region just an hour or two into the new month. Indianapolis International Airport reported a 71 mph wind gusts as these storms moved into the metro area early on the morning of the 1st. Additionally, a warehouse was significantly damaged just off US Route 36 in Avon, and scattered storefront damage occurred at a strip mall across from the Greenwood Mall.
Scattered severe storms produced wind damage across west central and south central Indiana on the afternoon and evening of the 7th. A 75 mph wind gust was recorded near Brazil in Clay County as these storms passed. A microburst occurred in Carmel on the north side of Indianapolis on the morning of the 8th as thunderstorms along a cold front passed through the region. Thunderstorms again produced scattered wind damage across the region on the afternoon of the 14th.
Several clusters of thunderstorms on the 26th and 27th produced scattered large hail and wind damage across the region. A complex of storms tracking from west central Indiana southeast to near Seymour produced sporadic large hail on the morning of the 26th. An additional complex of thunderstorms moved almost over the exact same area early on the morning of the 27th, producing wind damage in a few spots from near Clinton in Vermillion County to west of Spencer in Owen County. Finally, a broken line of storms formed along a cold front during the late afternoon of the 27th. The strongest of the storms along the line produced pockets of wind damage from near Clayton to Mooresville across Hendricks and Morgan Counties.
The maximum wind gust at the Indianapolis International Airport was 71 mph from the northwest on the early morning of the 1st as an intense thunderstorm moved through Indianapolis. Fog or haze was reported at Indianapolis on 15 days this month. Thunder was reported at Indianapolis on 9 days in July.
August 2014 Outlook
The official outlook for August 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a greater chance for below normal temperatures. At Indianapolis, the average temperature for the month is 74.2 degrees. An equal chance of above, below or near normal precipitation is expected. The average precipitation for Indianapolis is 3.13”.
Data prepared by the Indianapolis Forecast Office.
Continued Cooler Than Normal…The Great Lakes region and northern Ohio Valley will remain under the influence of a swirling upper low. This will keep better rain shower and embedded thunderstorm chances across northern parts of the state this afternoon. We’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered shower here this afternoon and again Friday, but coverage will be reduced from that which we’ve seen over the past couple days.
Questionable Saturday…Forecast models certainly aren’t in agreement on our weekend forecast and range from a dry and warm Saturday (European solution) to one that features plenty of cloudiness and showers around (GFS solution). The GFS has been the most consistent on our weekend forecast the past several days and we’ll lean our Saturday forecast more in that direction for now. Stay tuned.
Slow Warming Trend Ahead Of Next Storm…A warming trend will continue into the early and middle parts of next week as temperatures reach seasonal to slightly above average levels for a couple days. Our next significant storm system appears to be on the horizon late next week and include rain and storm chances along with another cool down.
We’re looking at another day similar to that which we saw on Tuesday- morning sunshine giving way to afternoon cloudiness and scattered showers and embedded thunder. September-like cool air is combining with day time heating (and the still powerful late July sun angle) and embedded weak disturbances rotating southeast in a fast northwest flow to create this chance of afternoon/ evening showers and embedded thunder. We’ll continue this overall theme into the weekend before drying things out early next week. While everyone won’t see rain, there will be a couple of local downpours. Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels before rising to near normal early next week.
Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday. Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid to long range pattern and the overall tendency for cooler than normal air to continue taking up residence across the middle part of the country into the Ohio Valley region.
As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) and Facebook (search IndyWx.com).
July 2014 is already much cooler than normal month-to-date across the Ohio Valley and Mid West region. With a continued much cooler than normal pattern in place through month’s end, we’ll likely close July as the coolest on record for IND.
We’ll remain in a cooler than normal northwest flow pattern into early August. In fact, the upcoming 10 days doesn’t show any sort of significant summer heat and the majority of those days should be near, or below, average.
Highs today will climb into the lower to middle 70s with increasing afternoon clouds and a possible instability-driven shower this afternoon/ evening. Forecast radar shows this chance of showers. We’re not looking at any sort of widespread or heavy rain, but a couple showers will be around the region later today.
With the cool around around and combining with the still powerful late July sun angle, another day of instability-driven showers are possible late Wednesday.
Much more later today! Btw- if you find anyone serving pumpkin spice lattes let me know. This fall-like weather has me craving one!
A big upper low is located across the eastern Great Lakes. The circulation around this UL feature will result in an unseasonably cool, fall-like, feel across our neck of the woods the next couple days. On that note, the entire forecast period will remain cooler than normal. Sky conditions both today and Tuesday will vary depending on your location. Overall, expect more cloudiness across central and eastern parts of the state compared to the west. Additionally, scattered light showers will be possible this afternoon- more likely east. We’ll repeat this forecast Tuesday, though coverage of showers will be a bit more widespread (still not a huge deal).
The overall theme through this forecast period will be a cooler than average one and a bit unsettled. We’ll remain in a northwest flow regime and weak disturbances will move through the area from time to time, creating a slightly better shower chance each time they rotate through the area. Looking at the temperature forecast the upcoming week sure will have many scratching their head whether or not we’re heading into August or September?! The cool summer of 2014 rolls along…
This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we note scattered redevelopment across north and central parts of the state.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook the region for a severe threat today. Damaging straight line winds and hail are of biggest concern.
Until the autumn-like cold front passes later this evening, central Indiana is in play for scattered to numerous storms.
Future radar product off the high resolution NAM shows this.
Once to this evening, storm chances will shut down dramatically and we’ll note a rather abrupt wind shift to the northwest with the passage of the cold front.
A MUCH cooler, fall-like, air mass will settle into the region and lead to a prolonged period of cooler than normal air as we close July and open August. Record cool readings will be possible early/ mid week.
I’ve cut a video, but have been having technical issues getting it uploaded over the past hour. I’ll continue to work on this and post it should I win the technology “battle…”
While the severe threat and associated damaging wind event is diminished (capping and considerable cloudiness) we don’t won’t to provide a false sense of security. While the widespread damaging wind event is no longer forecast, remain weather aware this evening and overnight as a severe storm or two is certainly possible. Additionally, the flash flood threat remains quite high where storms repeatedly move over the same area (2-3″ can be expected on a localized level). We’ll keep mention of showers and storms in our forecast until an autumn-like cold front sweeps the region tomorrow afternoon/ evening.
The big story moving forward to next week will be yet another push of unseasonably cool air.
More later tonight should the video finally upload. Make it a great evening.
Quick update this morning, but a more extensive discussion will hit the site later this afternoon/ evening.
An initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through central Indiana this morning as a warm front crosses the state. After morning storms rumble through central Indiana the majority of the day will be rain-free and turn downright hot and muggy. An oppressive feel to the air will develop this afternoon as dew points rise into the 70s. We’ll then target another (more widespread and intense) outbreak of severe weather late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a moderate risk of severe weather today:
The ingredients are in place for a significant severe weather episode later tonight…
Big picture overview:
An autumn-like cold front will slice into a very warm, humid, and unstable air mass Sunday. Individual disturbances out ahead of the cold front will combine with ingredients listed below to potentially lead to a rather widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak tonight.
Additionally, short term model data forecasts…
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy and an ingredient of what helps fuel a thunderstorm) to reach 4000-5000 J/kg. Anything over 2000 is enough to lead to strong storms should other factors be in place.
Dew points to climb into the lower and middle 70s.
Precipitable water to reach 2.5″ (suggests a flash flood threat and local microburst potential)
The greatest concern has to do with the potential of a widespread damaging wind event late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday, but concern is also present that a couple of super cells could develop in advance of the more widespread complex of storms. Within these super cells, an opportunity is there for large hail and a tornado potential and we’ll closely monitor this as well.