More On The Rain Situation, Or Lack Thereof…

Things are growing a bit dry around these parts.  Officially we’re down 3.25″ for the month and close to 5″ on the year.  (Climate information for IND: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ind)

Rains the past (14) days have favored the central region, falling apart as the systems push east and northeast.  Texas and Oklahoma continue to make news headlines from severe flooding.  – Too much of a good thing all at once.

nws_precip_conus2_14Officially we’re not even listed in the “abnormally dry” shading, but that very well may change with the Thursday update.  Courtesy of the Regional Drought Monitor:

20150519_midwest_noneAnytime you go through May with a significant rainfall deficit it raises a concern for continued dry times going through summer.  Dry typically breeds dry this time of year, and eventually heat.  That said, a strengthening El Nino will fight the recent trend.  Around these parts weak to moderate summer El Ninos tend to yield average (to slightly above) precipitation and average (to slightly below normal) temperatures.  Recent trends, combined with longer term forecasts certainly prove to lead to a battle in the coming weeks and months…

Shorter term as we progress through the coming days, here’s how we currently assess rainfall coverage:

  • Wednesday: Scattered- favoring eastern and southern portions of the state
  • Thursday: Mostly dry
  • Friday: Widely scattered
  • Saturday: Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, but many dry hours, as well.
  • Sunday: Scattered coverage

* Rainfall potential through the weekend: 0.50″-1″ for most, with locally heavier totals under stronger storms.

Strong To Severe Storms Possible Tuesday PM…

Screen Shot 2015-05-25 at 7.13.18 PMHighlights:

  • Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/ evening
  • Drier skies Thursday-Friday
  • Weekend cold front

hires_ref_indy_28Forecast radar above (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows our next weather concern and that has to do with an upper air disturbance moving northeast tonight into Tuesday.  This will likely ignite scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Remain weather-aware tomorrow for the possibility of these severe storms. Large hail is the big concern.  Should we see morning sunshine of significance then that would “up the ante” for afternoon severe potential.  We remain in a rather unsettled, warm, and humid pattern this week, but there will be plenty of dry time.  Coverage of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday will be diminished from what we can expect tomorrow and Wednesday.  A cold front will arrive over the weekend, helping to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage.

A blend of short and mid range computer guidance prints out an average of 1.5″-2″ of rain over the upcoming ten days.  This is needed after what’s been several weeks in a row of a lack of widespread rains.

No Changes To What’s Going To Be A Great Weekend, Weather-wise.

sat_20Mid and high level clouds are around this morning, but expect increasing sunshine as we progress into the afternoon hours.  All-in-all, there are no changes to our going forecast this weekend, weather-wise.  Expect fantastic conditions today and Sunday.

Indy 500 Weekend Quick-cast:

Saturday: Partly cloudy this morning becoming mostly sunny.  Warmer.  High around 80.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy.  Low in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday: Mixed clouds and sunshine.  Increasingly humid.  High in the lower to middle 80s.

Memorial Day: Partly to mostly cloudy with a widely scattered shower or storm.  Mostly dry for the better part of the day.  High in the middle 70s.

Great Weekend Weather Ahead…

Screen Shot 2015-05-21 at 10.40.39 PMHighlights:

  • Another chilly start
  • Lots of weekend sunshine
  • Rain chances continue to decrease for the Indy 500
  • More humid times next week

Screen Shot 2015-05-21 at 10.43.59 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above).  As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day.  An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run.  Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening.  A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening.  We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.

A Word On The Weekend…

Just a quick update here this morning before we post our updated 7-day later this evening. 

Forecast models are trending drier for the weekend, which is sure to put big smiles on those race fans and others with Memorial Day weekend plans. All three of our mid range forecast models are focusing the majority of rain and thunderstorm action to our west until Monday when high pressure begins to lose control on the pattern. 

 
We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, but as it stands now, we’ll forecast plentiful sunshine Friday and Saturday with moderating temperatures (lower to middle 70s for highs). Sunday will feature partly cloudy conditions with an isolated storm chance during the evening hours. Highs Sunday should flirt with 80°. 

Much more later this evening! 

Chilly Now; Continuing To Keep A Close Eye On Sunday…

Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24 temperature change (image 1) and the departure from normal (image 2). 

   
 

A storm system to our west is delivering more high mountain snow to CO and also responsible for tornadoes in TX. This system will weaken dramatically over the next 12-24 hours. Dry air will really “eat away” at the more significant precipitation and we’ll maintain mention of light rain in your Wednesday forecast (forecast radar at 12-noon is below) before it’s back to sunshine Thursday!

  
Friday and Saturday will be fantastic days- slowly moderating temperatures and lots of sunshine! 

Attention turns to Sunday and as of now we still don’t have any changes to our forecast. There will be a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, but it continues to look like best rain and storm chances will remain off to our west most, if not all, of Sunday. Highs will be around 80°. 

Better chances of scattered storms appear to arrive Monday. At this juncture it really doesn’t look like a bad Memorial Day weekend is shaping up in the least. 

   
   

Much Cooler Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-05-18 at 7.35.41 AMHighlights:

  • Spotty shower or storm today
  • Much cooler Tuesday-Thursday
  • Light rain chances Wednesday
  • Keeping a close eye on Race Day/ Memorial Day wknd

A cold front still sits to our west and as the front passes through the region later this evening, an isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm will be possible, with best chances across the southeast portion of the state.  A much cooler air mass will then filter into the region for mid and late week.  A weakening disturbance may hold together just long enough to deliver some light rain Wednesday.  With added cloudiness and moisture, temperatures may not even make it out of the 50s for highs Wednesday.  Our next chance of rain will arrive Sunday, but this doesn’t appear to be any sort of significant event at this juncture- just a scattered afternoon shower or storm chance at this point.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

1A cold front will move through the region this evening and this could spark a thunderstorm, particularly across southeastern IN.

2Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday.  Factor in increased cloudiness and the unseasonably cool air mass in place and you have the makings for a rather cool, raw day.

Thoughts On The Big Week Ahead…

With the combination of the race and Memorial Day weekend, a busy week is ahead. Here are a few weather headlines that have our attention as we open the week:

  
1.) Short term model data shows the passage of a cold front Monday evening. Before the boundary passes, a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm will remain possible. 

  
2.) Models differ on the chance of rain Wednesday. The European model is most aggressive in delivering just under one quarter inch of rain as a weakening disturbance passes to our west. We’ll include a mention of a shower and some light rain Wednesday, but this doesn’t look to be a big deal as of now. 

  
3.) An unseasonably cool air mass (lower to middle 60s Tuesday through Thursday) will settle into the region tomorrow night and remain with us through the week. Temperatures will slowly begin to moderate heading into the weekend.

  
4.) Focus will remain high on the long weekend ahead. As things stand now, Friday and Saturday will be sunny and very nice, but moisture will be on the increase Sunday. We’re not expecting any all day rains, but do need to maintain a mention of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. 

Saturday Morning Rambles…

1.) The first half of May has been warmer and drier than average, locally.

   
 

2.) Sunday is shaping up to be a very busy severe weather day in the Plains. The SPC has already outlined a Moderate Risk, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this upgraded to a High Risk tomorrow. 

  
3.) Locally, and in the shorter term, expect many more dry hours than not this weekend. Heaviest rains today will likely fall across southeastern portions of the state.

  
4.) A cold front will sweep the region Monday with showers and thunderstorms (not expecting any sort of widespread severe weather here), followed by a surge of much cooler and drier air.

  
5.) Early thinking right now suggests the important Memorial Day weekend will be dry and warmer. Our next storm appears to arrive Monday or Tuesday, but we will keep a close eye on things.