Fresh Water Fury…

Low pressure is really wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this morning. Talk about fresh water fury…

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A byproduct of such strong low pressure is evident in the expansive wind advisories and high wind warnings today (brown shading). Local wind gusts to 45-50 MPH can be expected today.

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The associated strong southerly flow aided in the moisture connection north Sunday and local thunderstorms continue to impact portions of central Indiana as of this writing. Widespread 1-1.5″ rainfall fell across the region with embedded 2″ amounts.

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Temperatures will crash from spring-like balmy readings this morning back to winter for the drive home.

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As the associated cold front presses east, colder air will penetrate south and east for Thanksgiving week.

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Backlash snows will impact the Great Lakes region. Scattered snow showers or flurries are possible here tonight, but with no accumulation.

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Changeable Monday; Note On Thanksgiving; Warm Open To December…

We wanted to touch on a few items of business this evening.  There’s a lot of weather going on this week…

Monday will feature drastic changes in the weather department across central Indiana:

  • Day starts mild and with lingering showers.
  • Strong and gusty winds will reach speeds of 45-50 MPH.  Batten down the hatches!
  • Temperatures crash late morning into the afternoon.  We start in the lower 50s, but fall to the freezing mark for the drive home across western parts of the state.  Eastern Indiana will see 32 degree air by 7-8 o’clock.
  • Scattered snow showers and flurries will fly across central Indiana Monday evening.

Thanksgiving Cold And Snow:

Temperatures will be much colder than average (low to mid 30s for highs and middle 20s for lows).  We’re still tracking a weak disturbance that could distribute light snow across central Indiana Thanksgiving Day.  Accumulations, if any, would fall in the dusting to less than 1″ range.

Opening December Warm:

We’ve been talking about how this exceptionally cold and wintry early season pattern would have to “relax” at some point and that appears to be the case as we open December.  The potential is there for well above normal warmth for the first week to ten days of December before we reload the pattern and introduce colder, more wintry times for mid and late month (anyone dreaming of a White Christmas)?

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IndySportsReport.Com Colts Game Day Forecast

Colts v. Jaguars Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

11.23.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  A significant autumn storm system will lift north out of the southern region today into the Great Lakes Monday.  This surface low will deepen as it pushes north and be responsible for a wet and windy Sunday afternoon.

Early tailgating should feature overcast skies along with an isolated shower (most, if not all, of the pregame should be rain-free).  Best rain chances will arrive after kick off and feature embedded thunder, as well.  Certainly plan on a wet commute home.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long!  Go Colts!

 

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Cloudy Cloudy Heavy Rain
Temp: 53-58 Temp: 58 Temp:  57
Wind:  SE 10 MPH Wind: SE 10 MPH Wind:  SE 10-15 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.50”
Heavy rain will lift out of the south this afternoon. Forecast radar 2pm:

Heavy rain will lift out of the south this afternoon. Forecast radar 2pm:

Windy, Wet Sunday Ahead; Back To Winter Next Week…

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Wet And Windy Weekend…Some spots saw a touch of light freezing rain during the wee morning hours.  That’s now long gone as temperatures have risen into the upper 30s as of this forecast package.  Temperatures will continue to “warm” into the lower 50s today (today’s average high is 49) with scattered showers dotting the central Indiana landscape from time to time.

Much heavier and more widespread rainfall will lift north into the area Sunday afternoon and we forecast embedded thunderstorms along with strong and gusty winds for the second half of the weekend.  Widespread 1 to 1.5″ rainfall is likely Sunday with locally heavier totals.  As mentioned, the other big item of business will be the wind.  Winds will likely gust towards 50 MPH in spots as strengthening surface low pressure lifts north Sunday night into Monday.

Colder Air Returns…The period of milder air will be very brief as temperatures return back to well below normal values Monday afternoon and continue through the big Thanksgiving week ahead.  Some lingering wrap around moisture may lead to a few flurries or scattered snow showers Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and continued strong and gusty winds.

More Substantial Snow Maker For Thanksgiving?  Details remain sketchy, but computer modeling continues to suggest we need to keep on our toes for the potential of light accumulating snow Thanksgiving.  Snow or not, temperatures will be much colder than normal as the arctic hounds come calling yet again to set up a frigid Black Friday for shoppers.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″

Looking Closer At The Current SST Anomalies…

It may only be November, but we’ve been locked in the grips of Old Man Winter for the past few weeks (really since the early season snow back at Halloween).  While some “relaxation” will likely occur at a point during the first half of December, simply taking a look at the latest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies has to put a smile on the faces of those wanting cold and snowy weather for the upcoming winter.

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Let’s take a look at the highlighted features above, starting in the Atlantic and moving towards the Pacific.

1.) Warm water off the eastern seaboard: Suggests some ridging is likely from time to time that could force would-be east coast storms inland.  This is a factor in our forecasted above normal snowfall for the winter of 2014-2015.

2.) Modoki El Nino: A Modoki event, or central-based, El Nino is far different than an east-based El Nino event and the associated “blow torch” that can ensue for the winter months.  Computer modeling continues to suggest a weak to borderline moderate Modoki event is in the cards.  The sensible weather here in the states is vastly different from this type of event than many of the broad-brushed El Nino impact maps you may see on various media outlets.  This is a cold, snowy look for many central and east.

3.) North-central PAC Waters: Water temperature profiles in the north-central PAC region continues to be an item we at IndyWx.com lean heavier on in looking at our longer range forecast outlooks.  The ring of warmth around the colder north-central anomalies in the Pacific suggests plenty of Alaskan ridging ahead in the coming months.  Downstream impacts?  Central and eastern troughiness and associated colder than normal air.

As we state, there are MANY drivers that impact the weather, and this is simply taking the SST anomalies (1 ingredient) and dissecting the impact that they alone would have on the region.  There are many other factors that we look at as we forecast long range weather.  Taken verbatim, the SST anomalies suggest we’re on the right track suggesting a colder, snowier than normal winter looms…  By the way, if you haven’t seen our winter outlook that was posted back on 10.19.14, you can view it here.

Cold IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast…

Good morning and happy Friday! We’re dealing with more unseasonably cold weather today which will result in needing the heavier coats and winter attire tonight as you head off to your favorite football game.

While we forecast light freezing rain and freezing drizzle late tonight into early Saturday morning, most, if not all, of this should wait until after high school football tonight. Forecast radar shows light freezing rain moving in from the southwest around midnight.

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Kickoff temperatures will be in the middle to upper 20s.

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Your official IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast for Friday, November 21st:
Increasing afternoon and evening clouds with light freezing rain developing after midnight. Dry conditions can be expected for area football games. It’ll be cold with temperatures settling into the middle 20s by the end of the game. South winds can be expected 5-10 MPH.

For more on a variety of sports news and updates across the region, be sure to visit the Indiana Sports Report at IndySportsReport.com.

Thursday Night Rambles…

There’s a lot of weather to discuss over the upcoming 7-10 days, so in no particular order of most or least important, here’s what’s on our mind…

1.) Light freezing drizzle and freezing rain potential predawn Saturday.
As milder, more moist air streams north over lingering low level arctic air look for reports of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle early Saturday.

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2.) Windy, wet storm Sunday.
We still target Sunday for milder air, but it’ll come at a wet and windy cost. Indications continue to point towards 1″-1.5″ of rain and 40 MPH+ gusts. Heaviest rain falls late Sunday morning into the early afternoon.

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3.) Coldest November Since 1976.
Briefly milder air (closer to normal) will return Sunday. Talk about feeling good from the recent cold… Widespread coast-to-coast cold.

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4.) Water profile still looking good for a big winter.
Thinking longer term now, a look at the current water profile continues to reinforce our ideas on some drivers that should result in plenty of cold and snow, relative to average, across our portion of the country.

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5.) Cold week lining up.
Enjoy the briefly milder air Sunday as much colder temperatures look to carry us through the Thanksgiving week ahead.

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6.) Thanksgiving storm prospects.
Far too many issues to handle before hand and it’s also important to note the wide variance in details concerning a possible Thanksgiving storm. That said, a cold pattern will be in place which “ups the ante” on a potential wintry event should storminess be around.

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Cold Close To The Work Week; Eyeing Freezing Rain Late Friday Night…

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Very Cold Close To The Work Week…We’ve been cold for so long, it’s hard to remember that our average high this time of year is still around the 50 degree mark.  We won’t come anywhere close to that before Saturday.  Sunshine will dominate both today and Friday before giving way to increasingly cloudy skies late Friday.

Freezing Rain Potential; Wind And Storms Sunday…Light freezing rain is likely late Friday night into the wee morning hours Saturday.  Thankfully before we see widespread icing problems, temperatures should “warm” above freezing with a cloudy, breezy, and showery day on tap.

Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will rumble through the region Sunday, along with gusty south winds as a strong storm system lifts into the Great Lakes region.  Locally heavy rain can be expected with this event Sunday.

Colder For Thanksgiving Week; Eyeing Late Week Storm Potential…While we’ll enjoy one day above normal (Sunday) the overall weather pattern is one that’ll continue to result in a colder than normal regime over our part of the country.  A cold Thanksgiving week is shaping up with well below average temperatures.  Some scattered snow showers/ flurries are possible midweek, but it’s as we go into late next week/ weekend when a storm of “more importance” emerges.  Far too early for specifics on rain or snow, but stay tuned…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting

Mid Week Light Snow And Reinforcing Cold…

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Light Snow…Light snow will fall across central Indiana Wednesday, especially from Indianapolis and points north.  We’re not talking about significant accumulations, but a dusting to half an inch will be possible across the region Wednesday morning.  This is part of reinforcing cold and wind that will once again have things feeling frigid come Wednesday evening.  Southwest winds will shift around to the northwest come afternoon helping drive in the arctic air reinforcements.

Cold Close To The Work Week…We’re anticipating a dry close to the work week, but one that’s much colder than average.  In fact, high temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be significantly colder than average lows this time of year.  Brrrrrrr…. Keep the heavy winter gear handy.

Milder, But Wet And Windy…A big Mid West storm system will deliver a rainy and windy time of things Saturday into Monday.  As precipitation moves into the region, a wintry mix of sleet and/ or freezing rain will be possible during the onset early Saturday.  Otherwise, strong and gusty southerly winds will deliver a briefly milder regime come Sunday with periods of heavy rain.  Early indications suggest weekend rainfall totals reach 1″ to 1.5″.

Turning Colder Again…Once our storm system lifts away from the region, colder than normal air will quickly come rushing back into central Indiana to open up the short Thanksgiving week.  More details later in regards to a potential storm system brewing closer to Thanksgiving, itself…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00 – 1.50″

Weekly Outlook: Amazingly Cold And Wintry Pattern

November continues to grow increasingly colder than average with each passing day. The prolonged nature of the severe cold is astounding for early and mid November. Average low temperatures this time of year are in the middle 30s. Tuesday’s high likely will be 15° below the average low. Amazing.

A byproduct of the cold pattern is a drier than normal one, as well.

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Equally as impressive is that 50% of the country was enjoying a beautiful snowpack as of Monday morning.

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A frigid start to Tuesday is on deck with record, or near record, temperatures (low and low maximum in jeopardy). Many will start the day in the single digits.

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Wind chill values will plummet to as low as 10° below zero Tuesday morning.

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Reinforcing cold, arctic, air arrives Wednesday with light snow (dusting to 1″ type accumulation). The NAM and GFS see the mid week light snow potential.

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The pattern will moderate going into the weekend as a big Mid West storm ramps up. As precipitation attacks lingering low level cold air, a wintry mix is possible late Friday night or early Saturday before quickly changing to rain as southerly winds help us warm.

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Couple of notes about the weekend into early next week: Temperatures will moderate to seasonal and above normal levels for a couple of days. Also, rainfall amounts of 1″-1.5″ are possible as an early estimate. As of now, most of this looks to fall Sunday.

All of that said, look at the mid range pattern… Yes, once our Mid West storm rumbles into the Lakes, a cold trough is set to return. Will it feature the record type cold we’re currently seeing? Most likely no. That said, a solidly colder than normal regime will likely develop for the majority of Thanksgiving week.

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