Great Weekend Weather Ahead…

Screen Shot 2015-05-21 at 10.40.39 PMHighlights:

  • Another chilly start
  • Lots of weekend sunshine
  • Rain chances continue to decrease for the Indy 500
  • More humid times next week

Screen Shot 2015-05-21 at 10.43.59 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above).  As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day.  An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run.  Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening.  A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening.  We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.

A Word On The Weekend…

Just a quick update here this morning before we post our updated 7-day later this evening. 

Forecast models are trending drier for the weekend, which is sure to put big smiles on those race fans and others with Memorial Day weekend plans. All three of our mid range forecast models are focusing the majority of rain and thunderstorm action to our west until Monday when high pressure begins to lose control on the pattern. 

 
We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, but as it stands now, we’ll forecast plentiful sunshine Friday and Saturday with moderating temperatures (lower to middle 70s for highs). Sunday will feature partly cloudy conditions with an isolated storm chance during the evening hours. Highs Sunday should flirt with 80°. 

Much more later this evening! 

Chilly Now; Continuing To Keep A Close Eye On Sunday…

Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24 temperature change (image 1) and the departure from normal (image 2). 

   
 

A storm system to our west is delivering more high mountain snow to CO and also responsible for tornadoes in TX. This system will weaken dramatically over the next 12-24 hours. Dry air will really “eat away” at the more significant precipitation and we’ll maintain mention of light rain in your Wednesday forecast (forecast radar at 12-noon is below) before it’s back to sunshine Thursday!

  
Friday and Saturday will be fantastic days- slowly moderating temperatures and lots of sunshine! 

Attention turns to Sunday and as of now we still don’t have any changes to our forecast. There will be a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, but it continues to look like best rain and storm chances will remain off to our west most, if not all, of Sunday. Highs will be around 80°. 

Better chances of scattered storms appear to arrive Monday. At this juncture it really doesn’t look like a bad Memorial Day weekend is shaping up in the least. 

   
   

Much Cooler Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-05-18 at 7.35.41 AMHighlights:

  • Spotty shower or storm today
  • Much cooler Tuesday-Thursday
  • Light rain chances Wednesday
  • Keeping a close eye on Race Day/ Memorial Day wknd

A cold front still sits to our west and as the front passes through the region later this evening, an isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm will be possible, with best chances across the southeast portion of the state.  A much cooler air mass will then filter into the region for mid and late week.  A weakening disturbance may hold together just long enough to deliver some light rain Wednesday.  With added cloudiness and moisture, temperatures may not even make it out of the 50s for highs Wednesday.  Our next chance of rain will arrive Sunday, but this doesn’t appear to be any sort of significant event at this juncture- just a scattered afternoon shower or storm chance at this point.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

1A cold front will move through the region this evening and this could spark a thunderstorm, particularly across southeastern IN.

2Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday.  Factor in increased cloudiness and the unseasonably cool air mass in place and you have the makings for a rather cool, raw day.

Thoughts On The Big Week Ahead…

With the combination of the race and Memorial Day weekend, a busy week is ahead. Here are a few weather headlines that have our attention as we open the week:

  
1.) Short term model data shows the passage of a cold front Monday evening. Before the boundary passes, a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm will remain possible. 

  
2.) Models differ on the chance of rain Wednesday. The European model is most aggressive in delivering just under one quarter inch of rain as a weakening disturbance passes to our west. We’ll include a mention of a shower and some light rain Wednesday, but this doesn’t look to be a big deal as of now. 

  
3.) An unseasonably cool air mass (lower to middle 60s Tuesday through Thursday) will settle into the region tomorrow night and remain with us through the week. Temperatures will slowly begin to moderate heading into the weekend.

  
4.) Focus will remain high on the long weekend ahead. As things stand now, Friday and Saturday will be sunny and very nice, but moisture will be on the increase Sunday. We’re not expecting any all day rains, but do need to maintain a mention of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. 

Saturday Morning Rambles…

1.) The first half of May has been warmer and drier than average, locally.

   
 

2.) Sunday is shaping up to be a very busy severe weather day in the Plains. The SPC has already outlined a Moderate Risk, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this upgraded to a High Risk tomorrow. 

  
3.) Locally, and in the shorter term, expect many more dry hours than not this weekend. Heaviest rains today will likely fall across southeastern portions of the state.

  
4.) A cold front will sweep the region Monday with showers and thunderstorms (not expecting any sort of widespread severe weather here), followed by a surge of much cooler and drier air.

  
5.) Early thinking right now suggests the important Memorial Day weekend will be dry and warmer. Our next storm appears to arrive Monday or Tuesday, but we will keep a close eye on things.

  

One More Pleasant Day Before Warmth And Humidity Increases…

Screen Shot 2015-05-13 at 9.33.32 PMHighlights:

  • Another chilly start
  • Warmth and humidity on the uptick heading into the weekend
  • More dry hours than wet this weekend
  • Much cooler next week

We’ll enjoy one more beautiful day Thursday, though we’ll note an increase in afternoon cloudiness.  While a shower will be possible Thursday evening (courtesy of a warm front passing through the region), it won’t amount to much as dry air will “eat away” at what will look like a rather impressive surge of moisture to our west Thursday morning.  Once the warm front blows through tomorrow night, a much more humid and unseasonably warm air mass will engulf the region to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.

A widely scattered storm will be possible, but there will be many more dry hours than wet.  Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday night/ Monday as a cold front presses through the region.  Total rainfall potential between this weekend and Monday looks to fall in the half inch to one inch range for most.  A much cooler and drier air mass returns next week (even cooler than this current air mass).

1A light shower will be possible Thursday evening as a warm front lifts through the region.

2Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick Friday and continue through the weekend.  Prepare to sweat as dew points approach 70 degrees this weekend.

3Most widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday evening into Monday, courtesy of a cold front passing through the region.

4A MUCH cooler air mass will settle into the Mid West region next week.  In fact, next week’s chill looks more impressive than our current cool air mass- both from a duration perspective and absolute temperature.

Cool And Dry Through Thursday; Weekend Changes…

The story through Thursday will be one summed up in two words: dry and cool!  High pressure will supply beautiful weather as we head into the latter portion of the work week.  (May be a good couple days to use some of that PTO :-))!

Temperatures both tomorrow morning and Thursday morning will fall into the 40s.  In fact, some neighborhoods away from the city, itself, may fall to between 38-39 just before sunrise Wednesday.  Unlike today, afternoon cloudiness won’t be an issue and winds will be much lighter.

Changes will ensue as we progress into the weekend thanks to our air flow shifting around to a more southerly and southwesterly direction.  This will pull increasingly humid air northward and we’ll introduce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into the central IN weather picture Friday afternoon, continuing through the weekend.

1It should be noted, however, that modeling today isn’t nearly as wet and stormy as previous runs.  Will this be proven to be an anomaly, or is the drier trend the correct solution?  We’ll give it a couple more runs before taking things at face value, but feel confident in saying that while scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the picture, many more dry hours can be expected as opposed to wet and stormy.

A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 8.51.04 PMHighlights:

  • Much cooler and drier through Thursday
  • Moisture increases this weekend
  • Stormy early next week

A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this.  That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return.  High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend.  Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.

hrrr_t2m_indy_14A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning.  Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_9High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_16A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley.  Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.

cmc_total_precip_indy_33After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week.  Localized torrential downpours are likely.  Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.