Taking A Moment To Level Set…

Two snow events are lined up to impact at least parts of central IN over the next few days.

Friday Light Snow:  We still expect an area of light snow to press into central and southern IN Friday morning. This will be ahead of what is a brutal push of arctic air that we label “hurt your face” cold that will be with us for the Valentine’s weekend (lows in the single digits both Saturday and Sunday mornings).  While snow amounts won’t be hefty Friday, cold surfaces and the pending arctic intrusion will likely make for slick travel in spots across the region.  Snow showers will likely develop once again Friday afternoon and evening as the arctic reinforcements push south. Some local snow bursts are possible, along with gusty winds.

Interested in our consulting services?  E-mail bill@indywx.com for more details and a personalized quote.

Sunday-Monday Snow:  There really aren’t any changes we have concerning Sunday and Monday at the moment.  While there are more questions than answers, as opposed to flip-flopping with each and every model run, we feel it’s best to ride with the “steady as she goes” approach.  That idea delivers accumulating snow to central IN Sunday night into Monday.  While we can understand the ideas out there of suppression (would fit the trend this winter), the simple fact of the matter doesn’t support a suppressed solution, in our opinion.

The arctic high that will deliver the bitter cold here this weekend will be retreating northeast.  Additionally, teleconnections, namely the AO and NAO, are forecast neutral to positive late weekend into early next week.  Only God knows tomorrow, but for now, we see no reason to deviate away from that idea at this time.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.  From this distance, a plowable snow is very much on the table.

Before we close, I wanted to say thank you to all of the new and long-standing followers of IndyWx.com.  I know there are many excellent weather sources out there, and I’m flattered you choose us to provide your weather information.  The central IN weather community is a special group, a brotherhood of sorts, so to speak.  While the commonality is the weather, many great friendships have been born that will last a lifetime, and go much deeper than weather.

Please know that while the ideas here may be a bit different from what you see from other sources at times, we always will strive to put out the best product we possibly can.  Will we be correct all the time?  No.  Will we miss snow events and severe weather outbreaks at times?  Yes.  We can be stubborn at times, as we prefer analyzing the overall pattern in its’ entirety and providing the best forecast we can, using forecast model data as guidance, but not the “be all end all.”  Are our forecasts from agenda-driven ideas or wish casting?  Negative.  While most play nice, there are some folks who try and stir up drama at times.  Simply put, nobody has time for that.  Please find a way to maximize your time in a more constructive manner.

We are here daily to work tirelessly providing the most accurate short-term, long-term, and seasonal forecasts available, realizing all along that you’re only as good as your last forecast in this business.  Will we be correct 100% of the time?  No, but 100% of the time you will get our best effort.

God has blessed me immensely being able to have the time and resources to do something that I love.  I want to, personally, take an opportunity to thank you for being a supporter of our product, and, for many of you, your friendship.

Now, let’s get back to digging into the data… :-)

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Very Cold; Eyes On Sunday-Monday…

Screen Shot 2016-02-10 at 7.10.06 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered snow showers continue
  • Reinforcing arctic air arrives Friday-Saturday
  • Winter storm brewing for some Sunday-Monday
  • Moderating temperatures next week

Very Cold; Eyes On Sunday-Monday…We’ve been dealing with snow showers for over 48 hours.  As expected, accumulations haven’t been uniform, but range, on average, from 1″ to 3″ across central IN.  Morning snow showers continue before drier air will invade from the west and shut the snow production off this afternoon.

Tomorrow will be a dry, cold day before arctic reinforcements arrive Friday into Saturday. Snow showers will accompany the arctic express to close the work week.

Saturday looks brutal. Very cold and windy with below zero wind chills most of the day.

Focus continues on Sunday and Monday and we forecast snow to overspread the area late Sunday night, continuing into Monday.  It’s still early, but this may be a “more important” event, locally.  This will actually come on the “tail end” of the arctic air mass that will have engulfed the region over a week by that point.  We think next week is much milder before we reload the cold to close February and head into March.

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

 

5-10 day temperature anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com

 
 

Week 2 Accumulated Precipitation Anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com

 
Interested in our personalized consulting services? Email bill@indywx.com for more details. 

We’re just beginning a very wintry 10-day period across the region. In addition to the current light snow event, we also track snow makers late week (Friday) and potentially a “bigger deal” system over Valentine’s Day into Monday. It should also be noted the hits don’t stop there. Additional snow makers lie ahead next week.

The potential this pattern has is one that can quickly reverse some ideas out there on this winter. Can potential turn into reality? Much more later!

Commercial clients, updates on the snow and a long range discussion will be in your inbox by this evening. 

Busy, Cold Winter Pattern…

Screen Shot 2016-02-08 at 6.45.51 PMHighlights:

  • Embedded Tuesday squalls!
  • Fast moving NW flow!
  • Bigger winter threat to close the week and again late weekend?

Busy, Cold Winter Pattern…The short term will continue to be dominated by a slow moving upper low over the region. Individual “spokes” (disturbances) of energy will rotate around the upper low and provide enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls through Tuesday night.  As promised, there will be “haves” and “have nots” with this system and, in general, we still like the idea of most folks in the 1″-3″ range with a few isolated heavier totals.

This is a challenging northwest flow and can wreck havoc on the timing front.  Our best idea right now takes a disturbance southeast Wednesday, but this should remain a touch too far west to prevent much more than our southwest tier counties from seeing much, if any, snow.

A stronger clipper may deliver accumulating snow to wrap up the work week and then we also have our late weekend winter event to fine tune.  Get the idea we’re locked into a busy time of things? :-)

Interested in our detailed consulting services? E-mail bill@indywx.com for further details.

10-Day AG-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 02.07.16

Forecast period: 02.07.16 – 02.17.16

Focal Items:

  • Busy winter pattern from the Plains east
  • Dry and warm across the West
  • Potential widespread winter storm threat days 7-10 from the Plains into the East

Summary: Changes are underway at the beginning of the period with a positive PNA pattern in place.  This will support a drier and warmer than normal time of things across the west with a shift towards much colder than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country.  Early in the period, we’re tracking a coastal storm that will deliver blizzard conditions to the Cape Monday and a big upper low over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  This will provide a prolonged snow shower event across the areas mentioned above.  Toward the end of the period, we’ll have to remain focused over the southern/ central Plains for the potential of a developing winter storm that would then advance into the Ohio Valley and eventually Mid Atlantic.

Sensible Impacts: Strong ridging across the West will keep things drier and warmer than normal, with the action across the eastern half of the nation.

In addition to snow, wind, and near blizzard conditions that will impact the Cape to open the work week, blizzard conditions will also impact the northern Plains as an upper trough drops south.  The same trough and associated upper level energy will deliver snow showers and embedded blinding snow squalls south into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians through mid week, as well.

A very active northwest flow will send light to moderate snow makers southeast out of the N. Plains into the Ohio Valley through the upcoming work week.  Overall, most snowfall accumulations will remain light, with the exception of Snow Belt areas.

A significant winter storm appears to be brewing next weekend and could impact a large portion of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic towards the end of the period.

Temperature Anomalies: A very cold time of things is ahead for the forecast region through the period.  In some cases, temperatures will fall to levels some 15-20 degrees below normal.

Tuesday

Temperature anomalies Tuesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Precipitation: Snowfall will generally be light through the forecast region this week. Despite the light snowfall, very strong winds will likely lead to blizzard conditions in the open country, particularly across IA and MN early in the period. Heavier snow will be possible as the potential winter storm develops next weekend across the central Plains.

Long Duration Snow Shower Event; Hope You Like Winter…

Screen Shot 2016-02-07 at 2.17.06 PMHighlights:

  • Long duration snow shower event
  • Heavier snow squalls possible Monday night-Tuesday morning
  • Another push of snow late week
  • Bigger winter storm potential at the end of the period

Long Duration Snow Shower Event…A cold front will move through the area late tonight and may be accompanied by a shower or sprinkle as it moves through the region.  Colder air will filter in behind the boundary after midnight and snow showers will begin to blossom Monday morning. This will be the beginning of a solid 48-60 hours of snow falling across most of central IN.  We think heavier snow bursts and embedded squalls are a good bet Monday night into Tuesday morning as the true arctic air begins to push into the area.  With so much upper level energy around, snow showers will continue into Wednesday.

As far as accumulation goes, we think the majority of central Indiana will accumulate 2″-3″ during the early week event, but this won’t be a uniform snow at all (there will be “haves” and “have nots”).  Locally, there will also be a few 4″ reports.

Though timing is a challenge in this fast, active northwest flow, we think we’ll be dry and cold Thursday before snow returns to close the work week as another disturbance and reinforcing arctic air move south.

Well below normal cold remains entrenched across the region for Valentine’s weekend, and we note wintry “fun and games” brewing to our west Saturday night into Sunday.  We’ll forecast a lowering and thickening cloud deck here Sunday with snow developing during the afternoon and evening. Early indications continue to suggest this could be a storm of “importance” around these parts…  Stay tuned.

Saturday Afternoon Rambles…

1.)  Be sure to get outside and enjoy today!  We’ll take sunshine this time of year any how we can get it! Big changes loom moving forward.  While Super Bowl Sunday will be mild, we’ll add clouds, a gusty wind, and late showers.  Today is the pick of the weekend.

2.)  The first of a series of upper disturbances will create widespread snow showers Monday and Tuesday.  We’re becoming increasingly confident on heavier bursts of snow and embedded squalls Monday night into early Tuesday.  Thinking for now remains 1″-3″ with isolated spots of 4″.  Blowing and drifting will also become a problem Monday night and Tuesday.

BTW, the southern Appalachians will also do very well with this event- 5″-10″ with amounts up to 15″ in the prime upslope regions.

3.)  Another fast-moving disturbance shoots SE and impacts portions of the state Wednesday with snow.  We’ll have to “sure up” timing and track as we move forward.

4.)  Arctic reinforcements plunge south to wrap up the work week and will likely, once again, result in widespread snow showers and embedded heavier squalls Thursday night into Friday.  Additional light accumulation is a good bet (similar, perhaps, to Monday-Tuesday).

5.)  We continue to eye the goings on around mid month.  Certainly far too early for specifics, but something “bigger” appears to be waiting in the wings…

Series Of Upper Disturbances Bring Snow…

The relatively quiet and mild time of things this weekend will quickly give way to the promised return of winter next week.  An arctic cold front will sweep through the state late Sunday and set things in motion that will keep the weather feeling, and looking, very wintry around these parts over the upcoming week.

As we’ve discussed, models will struggle with handling the local impacts of multiple upper air disturbances that will race southeast in the fast northwest flow aloft.  We think Monday-Tuesday offer up the best chances of accumulating snow in the near term.  The upper energy will be able to maximize snow production around these parts and this looks like a 1″-3″ type event, with local amounts to 4″.  Winds will be quite gusty and blowing and drifting will be an issue, particularly in the open country.

Monday evening

Monday evening

Tuesday evening

Tuesday evening

Another vigorous disturbance will race southeast Thursday afternoon.  While the Canadian shows the bulk of the energy to our north, it would be close enough to ignite snow showers around here, as well.  Expect small changes with timing and track as we get closer.

ThursdayNight

Thursday evening

Longer term, we also keep close eyes on next weekend.  The pattern is one that should promote a significant widespread winter storm.  The devil is in the details and we still have a ways to go, but the pattern set-up is one that screams an Ohio Valley winter storm threat from this distance.

Giddy up! :-)

European Ensemble Valentine's Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Valentine’s Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Interested in our consulting services? E-mail us at bill@indywx.com for details

Not A Bad Weekend; Winter Returns Next Week…

Screen Shot 2016-02-04 at 9.31.11 PMHighlights:

  • Nice close to the work week
  • Enjoy a mild weekend
  • Much colder next week with snow

Not A Bad Weekend; Winter Returns Next Week…Weak ridging will be with us as we close out the work week.  This will supply a very nice Friday, after some freezing fog concerns in spots early.

The upcoming weekend will feature a weak weather maker scooting through here Saturday and that could have just enough “umph” to produce a flurry or sprinkle. Otherwise, look for mild weather for Super Bowl weekend. Enjoy it!

A cold front will push through the region late Sunday. A band of moisture will likely accompany this front- rain to snow type deal.  As we move into early and mid next week, the weather pattern will be dominated by strong western ridging and a significant eastern trough.  Models will likely continue to struggle handling the specifics concerning timing and strength with the individual disturbances and we’ll have to keep a close eye on early to mid next week moving forward.  As it stands now, we think most widespread snow showers/ squalls come Monday into Tuesday.