• Tuesday Storms Then Much Cooler…


    • Scattered storms with locally heavy rain
    • Early fall-like feel arrives
    • Dry weather returns

    Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region.  Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours).  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.

    That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend.  High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine.  Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week.  This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.

    Tropics:  Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico.  Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches.  An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

  • Chances Of Needed Rain Increasing For Central Indiana…

    August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry.  Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.

    We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana.  The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.

    With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.

    Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…

  • Hot, Humid Weather Gives Way To Much Cooler Times…


    • Hot and humid open to the week
    • Scattered early week storms
    • Much cooler and less humid times loom

    Time To Sweat…A hot and increasingly humid airmass will be with us as we open a new week.  While most of the upcoming 24-48 hours will remain rain-free, we will mention chances of an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm Monday.  Most will remain free of rain and storms, but those lucky folks who do find themselves under a storm Monday can expect to pick up a quick 1″ of rain.  Better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday night into Tuesday.

    Typically, a pattern change such as what we’ll undergo this week (summer-like to early fall-like) would yield widespread showers and thunderstorms.  However, a look at short-term, higher resolution data isn’t particularly “excited” about widespread significant rainfall across central Indiana.  We expect a weakening complex of thunderstorms off to our northwest to drift southeast Monday night.  Depending on how quickly this complex weakens will determine rainfall amounts, locally.  Additionally, it’s very possible this weakening storm complex will serve to limit new thunderstorm development Tuesday as the cold front moves closer.  We do note high resolution data places emphasis on northern and southern parts of the state for heaviest rains and it’s tough to disagree with that idea given what we’re looking at right now.  Stay tuned.

    Regardless of the rain and storm situation, locally, we’ll all turn significantly cooler by midweek.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough to feel like mid-September.  Dry conditions will carry us into next weekend.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.75″

  • Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…

    I.  A cold front will move across the state this evening.  Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.  While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.

    Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.
    Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.

    II.  After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday.  This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.

    III.  Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.

    IV.  A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August.  In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night.  Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…

  • Warm And Muggy; “Splash And Dash” Storms…


    • Scattered storms
    • Saturday showers
    • Surge of heat ahead of a late week cool down next week

    More Dry Time Than Stormy…A warm and moist southwesterly air flow will have things feeling quite muggy today.  This tropical feel will also help fuel scattered thunderstorms by evening, continuing into tonight.  While everyone won’t get wet today, those that do have the potential of picking up a quick 1″ in a short period of time.  A cold front will cross the state Thursday and will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going.  While this isn’t a uniform soaking, we’ll take what we can get as things have been bone dry around these parts lately.

    After a quiet and slightly cooler Friday, an upper level disturbance will deliver another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday.  Dry weather will return to wrap up the weekend Sunday.

    Looking ahead, a surge of heat, albeit brief, will have things feeling quite toasty around the Mid West early next week.  We think we flirt with, or exceed, the 90° mark both Monday and Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest.  Behind the front, data still paints a much cooler regime for the second half of next week; fall-like!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

  • Classic Mid-August Weather…


    • Dry open to the work week
    • Unsettled times return
    • Cooler air heading into the weekend

    Storm Chances Begin To Increase…While southern portions of the state will get wet today, dry air should result in a rain-free Monday here across central Indiana.  That will begin to change later this week as moisture returns and that muggy summer feel develops for midweek.  In addition to the increasingly humid nature to our airmass, a cold front will approach from the west.  Coverage of storms tomorrow should remain few and far between (isolated), but overall coverage will increase Wednesday into Thursday (scattered to numerous).

    The cold front will sweep to our east Thursday night and result in a beautiful close to the work week, complete with cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels.  The weekend will feature a disturbance dropping in from the northwest and this will be sufficient enough to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening before dry times return Sunday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

  • The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

    High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

    High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

    As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

    Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

    Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

    As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

    What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.

  • Gorgeous Weekend; Humidity Returns Next Week…


    • Beautiful weekend dialed up
    • Humidity returns
    • Scattered storms late week

    Refreshing Conditions Continue…A cold front settled south of the region last night, allowing drier and slightly cooler air to filter in during the overnight.  That sets the stage for the weekend as we can expect dry and refreshing conditions, along with below average temperatures.

    Dry skies will continue into the new work week, but humidity will slowly begin to increase once we get to midweek.  A southwesterly air flow will develop ahead of our next storm system that will deliver scattered thunderstorms by Thursday.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Friday morning, however, early indications suggest next weekend is also dry.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

    Cool August:  The month has opened impressively cool with a CONUS average anomaly of – 2.75° through the 10th.  More specifically to Indianapolis, we’re running 3° below normal through the 11th.