• Sunday Morning Rambles: Focusing On Severe Weather…

    Low clouds and areas of fog will be slow to burn off this morning, but the sunshine should eventually return later this afternoon and evening, providing a phenomenal close to the weekend.

    Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average.  We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.

    A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on.  That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

    The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week.  We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook.  It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.

    We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday.  Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.

    Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period.  As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2.  This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.


  • Awesome Weekend Weather Continues; Changes Ahead Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Spring-like weather rolls along
    • Shower chances return
    • Strong t-storm potential
    • Different tune next weekend

    Is This February?  Our stretch of unseasonably pleasant, spring-like, weather will continue for the second half of the weekend and as we progress into the early stages of the work week.  Find a way to get outside the next couple of days (that’s an order ;-)).

    A weak weather system will scoot through here Tuesday and serve to increase our cloud cover, along with a few scattered showers.  Dry conditions return Wednesday, but by then all eyes will be on an approaching stronger storm system that will provide increased shower coverage by Thursday and strong to severe thunderstorm potential Friday.  Speaking of severe weather, we think this spring will offer up a busy severe weather season.  We’ll have additional updates on the severe potential as time gets closer, but just keep a mental note Friday could be a busy weather day.

    We’ll abruptly transition back to winter Friday night and the air will grow cold enough a week from today to allow scattered snow showers to fly in a gusty northwesterly breeze next Saturday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Thoughts Shift Towards Severe Weather Season…

    With the unseasonable warmth this week, our thoughts begin to shift to the coming spring months ahead.  Of course with spring comes the potential of storms- some of which include severe weather outbreaks.

    Already, 2017 has wasted no time in the tornado department, year-to-date- more than double the (10) year average across the United States.

    The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north.  As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.

    The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.

    As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west.  The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast).  Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.

    Much more later as spring evolves.


  • Extended Dry Period; Spring-Like Weekend Ahead…

    Highlights:

    • Chilly today
    • Spring-like weekend
    • Extended dry period

    Beautiful Weather…There’s no reason to waste many pixels on this forecast.  Despite a slight “speed bump” today (temperatures will top out a few degrees below normal), the balance of this 7-day forecast period is one that will feature unseasonably pleasant (and quiet) weather.  We’ll note periods of clouds today as weak cold air advection kicks in, along with a gusty northerly breeze this afternoon.

    After Thursday morning, it’s off to the races as an extended period of sunshine will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Temperatures will reach 60 Friday, mid/ upper 60s this weekend, and near 70 Monday.

    The next weather item of note will be increasing clouds late Tuesday, followed by showers Wednesday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″


  • Uneventful Weather; Warming Up Late Week…

    Highlights:

    • Dry weather this week
    • Briefly cooler mid week
    • Weekend warm-up

    Sunglasses Required…We’re opening the work week with crystal clear blue skies and cold temperatures. Mostly sunny conditions will give way to increasing high level cloudiness this afternoon/ evening as a storm system passes by to our south.  That increase in cloudiness is about as “exciting” as it gets this week in the weather department.  Reinforcing chilly conditions will dive south into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we’ll remain precipitation-free.

    Like so many other cold blasts this winter, the chill won’t have staying power and we’ll get back to a moderating trend heading into the weekend.  Many places will likely come close to 70° by the second half of the weekend as dry conditions remain. Enjoy friends!

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″


  • High Pressure Supports A Quiet Week; Colder Then Warming Again…

    Quick post from the road on this Sunday morning before a more extensive update tonight. 

    High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and support a quiet week, overall. 


    A “pop” of cold air will flow into the state on gusty northerly winds Tuesday night and set-up a cold midweek stretch. 


    Highs will fall into the 30s Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. However, like so many other cold shots over the past 6 weeks, it’s of the “in and out” variety. By late week, southwest winds are developing and helping temperatures moderate going into the weekend. 


    We should remain dry next weekend before a more significant storm system arrives during early portions of Week 2. With dry conditions, a strengthening southwest flow and strong upper ridge, highs next weekend will approach 65°-70°.  

    With two weekends in a row of spring-like weather in February we sure have to believe we’ll have to pay for the nice conditions late month into March before true sustained spring conditions can take hold…


  • Pleasant Start; Nighttime Showers…

    Highlights:

    • Sunshine gives way to showers
    • Colder mid-week
    • Warmth returns

    Showers Arrive Tonight…The weekend is off to a pleasant start, but clouds will increase this afternoon and light showers will follow by evening, continuing into early Sunday morning.  Rainfall amounts won’t be impressive, with most around one-quarter inch.  It’ll be an unseasonably mild weekend, with highs today pushing close to 60° and early highs Sunday around 50° before cooler air spills in for the second half of the weekend.

    The majority of the upcoming work week will be precipitation-free.  A dry cold front will pass Tuesday evening and this could result in a couple of snow flurries or light snow showers.  As of now, the better coverage of snow showers appears to be to our east for our friends in Ohio.  We’ll turn colder Wednesday and Thursday, but have no fear as moderating temperatures will quickly return as we roll into next weekend.  In fact, the period just beyond the current 7-day looks downright spring-like, including highs that may push close to 70° early in Week 2.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″


  • Friday Morning Notebook: Warmer Times This Weekend…

    Happy Friday, friends.  We’re still cold this morning, but a look at the change in temperatures compared to 24 hours ago shows the milder trend that will be with us through the upcoming weekend.  Highs today will reach the upper 40s and 55-60 Saturday.

    Winds will turn strong and gusty out of the southwest this afternoon, noted by the tightly packed isobars (lines of equal pressure) along with considerable mid and high level clouds.

    Clouds will lower and thicken Saturday and we may also have to deal with periods of fog, as well.  Showers and drizzle will lift into town as the day progresses, especially by afternoon and evening.

    We don’t expect heavy rain this weekend.  In fact, model data continues to really back off on expected totals.  The general consensus is between 0.15″ and 0.25″ across central Indiana.

    After a mild Saturday, cooler (but not cold) air will ooze into the Ohio Valley Sunday.

    Resurgent cold air will blow into town during the middle and latter portions of the upcoming work week.  Highs will return to the 30s with overnight lows in the lower 20s.  We’ll likely add scattered snow showers into the mix as well.