Needed Quiet Time Before An Active Christmas Week…

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Needed Quiet Stretch…With another active week gearing up, the local weather community we’ll gladly welcome some needed quiet weather through the weekend.  We forecast mostly cloudy skies throughout with temperatures very close to where they should be for the time of the year.  The system that we thought would deliver some light snow Saturday will remain well south of the region.

Bumpy Ride For Santa…A big storm system looks to really wrap up over the Great Lakes region Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.  Rain Monday night into Tuesday will likely transition to light snow Christmas Eve.  Factor in strong and gusty winds and the stage looks to be set for potential slick travel in spots across central Indiana.  It’s far too early to talk snow amounts, but at this juncture this looks to be a light event.

Post-Christmas Storm…After a cold, quiet Christmas, another storm system looks to impact the region the day after Christmas.  Given the looks of the pattern in the coming weeks, we might suggest a snow blower is on your Christmas wish list.  Active times ahead in the good ole weather department…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Stormy Period Christmas To New Years…

Indications are that not one, but two storm systems will impact the region during the Christmas to New Year time period. This is part of the shift back to more sustained wintry weather as we move into January.

Note the negative AO and negative PNA. This is a very stormy set up. The European and GFS respond to this set-up and show the active storm track in the days ahead.

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Eventually we go back to a positive PNA which favors more classic eastern cold.

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We target Christmas Eve and Christmas Day and then again the 26th-27th for storm systems. We’re supremely confident on the overall stormy set-up and active regime, but much less confident at this juncture around snowfall amounts and precipitation type. On the other hand, strong winds are almost a certainty with our Christmas Eve storm (Santa is in for a bumpy ride this year).

Right now we forecast rain Tuesday changing to snow showers Tuesday night into Christmas Eve. Note a couple different solutions between the GFS and European. Both have support from their respected ensembles.

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Modeling also sees another potential wintry event just after Christmas.

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What do we know? That a stormy and cold pattern will be with us into and through the Christmas to New Years period. Travelers, you’ll certainly want to keep abreast of latest weather forecasts. It’s far too early for specifics on precipitation type or amounts.

We’ll be back later this evening with a freshly updated 7-day forecast, including new thoughts from today’s model runs.

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

1.) Light snow will try and spread towards central Indiana Thursday, but this will really run into dry air and struggle to make it into the area. Radars to our west will likely excite snow lovers tonight and Thursday morning and while we will mention a little light snow/ snow showers in our forecast Thursday, the dry air in place suggests it’ll be tough for much, if any, light snow to fall across central Indiana.

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2.) Light snow is possible again Saturday, especially across southern Indiana. This doesn’t look to be a significant event at this time, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

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3.) Active Christmas week! Modeling is in remarkably strong agreement on the evolution of the weather pattern as we head closer towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. A strong trough will dig into the eastern region. It’s a very stormy and increasingly cold look. The chances are high at a white Christmas, but whether or not this comes from backlash squalls or a more significant winter storm is yet to be determined. Stay tuned.

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Turning Colder Later Today; Keeping Close Tabs On The Weekend…

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Highlights:

  • Tuesday Showers
  • Weekend Snow For Some
  • Pre-Christmas Wintry Event

Showers; Turning Colder Late…Showers will remain in our forecast today.  Most widespread rain will occur during the early morning hours, but we’ll maintain mention of light showers in our forecast even into the afternoon.  Winds will be gusty and help drive colder air into central Indiana later this evening.  We forecast nearly steady temperatures during the morning and afternoon hours before falling temperatures during the evening.

Dry, But Cold Mid Week…We’ll welcome a drier regime for the midweek period, along with partly to mostly cloudy skies and colder conditions.

Eyeing The Weekend…There’s not much change in our overall thinking of a potentially snowy first half of the weekend for some.  Monday featured run-to-run inconsistencies on our weekend storm system and we fully expect additional changes within the model data during the next couple of days.  In building our forecasts we factor in current data, but also rely on past data of storm tracks with similar setups.

At the end of the day (and despite model inconsistencies) we still think one area of low pressure heads northeast out of the mid MS River Valley into the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday.  A secondary area of low pressure is then expected to organize along the mid Atlantic coast Saturday afternoon.  Widespread light snow should build into the Ohio Valley Saturday with the above set up.  Exactly where heavier snow sets up is still up for much debate and will require fine tuning as we move forward.

Christmas Travelers Keep Close Tabs On The Forecast…After our first opportunity of potential wintry weather we’ll enjoy only a day or two of calmer weather in between storms.  Longer range data suggests we need to keep abreast of another winter event just prior to Christmas.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 2″

Monday Evening Video Brief

Additional showers will rotate through central Indiana during the overnight, followed by a colder mid week stretch.  All eyes remain on the weekend for an impactful winter weather event across the Ohio Valley, but details will have to be fine tuned in the days ahead as to exactly where the heavy snow axis sets up shop.  More details in the video below:

 

Monday Morning Rambles…

1.) Rain will spread into the state later this afternoon. Most folks will see 0.25″-0.50″.

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2.) Colder air will filter into the region by the mid week period and help lay a foundation for possible winter weather issues as a storm system attacks the cold this weekend. Questions remain about the overall placement of heaviest snow and this will have to be fine tuned as we move ahead. Individual GFS ensemble members (pictured below) mostly agree on an impactful event across the Ohio Valley. Secondly, the overnight run of the European also is farther north with its snow shield. Still a lot of time to watch things unfold. Our overall thinking hasn’t changed taking one low into the Ohio Valley while a secondary low develops along the mid Atlantic coast.

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3.) Modeling continues to indicate a cold and stormy ride through Christmas and into the new year period. That’s not saying each storm has to be, or will be a snow event. All of that said, it does look like a snowier time than normal as well as a type pattern that grows colder and colder in overall terms with each passing storm.

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Busy Week Ahead…

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Highlights:

  • Early Week Rain Maker
  • Keeping An Eye On Mid Week
  • Weekend Winter Storm For Some

Early Week Storm System…An area of low pressure will scoot though the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday delivering showers to the region. We forecast rain to arrive late morning to early afternoon Monday across central Indiana. We’re not expecting heavy rain, but plan on taking the rain gear with you as you leave for work and/ or school.  Colder air will filter into the state Tuesday afternoon setting up a cold mid week period.

Some forecast models have hinted at the threat of light wintry precipitation Wednesday into Thursday, but for now we’re keeping this out of our official forecast and instead going with a mostly cloudy, but dry mid week period.

Developing Weekend Winter Storm…All eyes will focus on a significant weekend winter storm event.  Details on track are still up for debate with this being in the mid range period and we’ll keep close tabs as we move forward through the week.  As of now we forecast increasing clouds through the day Friday with light snow developing late Friday night and continuing into Saturday.  Snowfall totals will obviously depend on the track of the low and we’re still a few days away from being able to provide any sort of specific accumulation ideas.  Guidance right now ranges from a “plowable” event to one that misses us to the south and east.  Stay tuned.

The weather pattern continues to look cold and active in the days leading up to, and through, the Christmas and New Year’s period.  Buckle up for a fun ride…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 2″

Mild; Foggy With Areas Of Drizzle For Colts Vs. Texans

Colts v. Texans Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

12.14.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  – New day; same story…central Indiana will remain under the influence of an “inversion” and this will keep low clouds and areas of fog prevalent for most of the day.  Milder air in the 50s at 4,000-5,000 feet up is overrunning shallow cooler air that’s trapped at the surface and the result in more of the same- gloomy, cloudy, foggy weather.  While temperatures won’t be as mild as they could be without the inversion, tailgaters still can’t complain about 45-50 degree air this time of year :-) .  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long!  Go Colts!

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Cloudy and foggy; patchy drizzle Cloudy with areas of fog; patchy drizzle Cloudy with areas of fog; patchy drizzle
Temp: 41-45 Temp: 46 Temp:  50
Wind:  S 5-10 MPH Wind: S 5-10 MPH Wind:  S 5-10 MPH
Precip: Trace Precip: Trace Precip:  Trace
Despite low clouds and areas of drizzle, temperatures will be mild this morning for tailgaters!

Despite low clouds and areas of drizzle, temperatures will be mild this morning for tailgaters! 

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Weekend Inversion…

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Highlights:

  • Weekend Inversion
  • Early Week Storm System
  • Keeping Close Eyes On Next Weekend

Gloomy Weekend…Forecast models continue to suggest we deal with an inversion though the weekend and this will keep low clouds hanging tough along with areas of fog (be careful tonight into Saturday morning for areas of freezing fog).  The warmer air is moving in aloft, but at the surface cold air remains hard to budge this weekend.  Just think…if we could shake the low clouds and fog, temperatures would have no problem climbing well into the middle and upper 50s.  Instead we forecast lower and middle 40s Saturday and upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday.  Again, low clouds and areas of fog will hang tough, along with patchy drizzle.

Early Week Storm System…An area of low pressure will “bowl” across the middle of the country and result in developing showers late Monday, continuing into Tuesday.  Temperatures will be too mild to support anything other than rain with our Monday-Tuesday system.

Colder; Eyeing Next Weekend…We’ll see a return of below normal cold for the second half of next week.  Forecast models differ on Thursday’s solution and vary from a cold, dry day to one that features mixed rain and snow.  For now, we’ll side with the dry theme for now, but suggest staying tune.  A more “interesting” system awaits next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

“I’m Dreaming Of A White Christmas…”

Modeling continues to suggest a cold and wintry time lies ahead as we progress into and through the special Christmas period. Could this be the scene across central Indiana Christmas Eve?

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First, let’s take a look at the average chances of a White Christmas during any given year.

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Last Sunday we tweeted (@indywx) this image valid 12/21 and showing the developing “blocky” look, positive PNA, and undercutting (active) jet across the southern tier.

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Since, model data remains consistent on a cold, wintry pattern as Christmas week nears. Can we speak with certainty of specific storms? Absolutely not, but we can say there will likely be multiple opportunities at wintry events through the Christmas period (12/20 through the New Year).

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The teleconnections are aligning to provide a cold, stormy look.

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This morning’s European operational shows what the potential is within this pattern.

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Bottom line, it’s too early to talk specifics in regards to storm potential, but I would say the chances are higher than average for a White Christmas this year across central Indiana.