Increasing Sunshine; Unseasonably Cool Close To The Work Week…


  • Cool close to the work week
  • Ideal autumn weekend
  • Turning breezy early next week
  • Scattered showers Wednesday PM

Grab The Jacket…After a significant rain event across central Indiana, the weekend will offer up a much-needed time to dry out!  Here’s an illustration of where heaviest rains fell over the past 24-36 hours, courtesy of  Please note these aren’t official rainfall storm totals. Many ground-truth reports into the office include amounts of 1.5″-3″.  Thanks to each of you for your reports!

nws_precip_indy_2High pressure will build in over the weekend and create an increasingly sunny sky.  The only caveat to that will be today where mixed clouds and sun across central IN become a little thicker and may yield lake effect rain showers across northern portions of the state later this afternoon.

We’ll turn briefly milder Sunday (upper 60s to around 70), but it’ll be a breezy day as a dry cold front sets it’s eyes on the region for a Sunday evening sweep!  Reinforcing cool air will blow in to open the work week, but this should be a rain-free frontal passage as our air mass will be very dry.

The next storm system that could deliver rain arrives Wednesday evening.  Along with scattered showers, a gusty SW wind can be expected before cooler air blows in to close next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Much Cooler Feel; Increasing Weekend Sunshine…


  • “Raw” weather today
  • Increasing weekend sunshine
  • Patchy frost Saturday morning

Wet And Chilly Today…An area of low pressure will track northeast along the Ohio River, into the interior portions of the Northeast between now and Friday.  Additionally, a cold front will continue to press southeast today.  The combination of these ingredients will equal a wet, raw, and breezy day across central IN.  (Definitely NOT a chamber of commerce day).  Temperatures will remain nearly steady through the daytime hours before sliding off relatively quickly tonight.

We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the weekend with increasing sunshine, but the coolest air of the fall season thus far.  Temperatures will grow chilly enough Saturday morning to present a patchy frost threat for outlying areas away from the metro.

Winds will increase Sunday as our next cold front approaches.  The air mass ahead of this front is very dry so we’re not expecting much, if any, precipitation with this next frontal passage (FROPA), but it will serve to offer up reinforcing cool air early next week.

The next storm system that could offer up rain will arrive Wednesday evening.  From this distance, it doesn’t appear to be a heavy rain event.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.50″

Much Cooler Times Await On Deck…


  • Wet weather moves in from south to north Wednesday PM
  • Raw Thursday
  • Much cooler, fall weather this weekend

Find The Rain Gear…Most of Wednesday will feature dry conditions with lots of sunshine to start, but clouds will be on the increase and rain will follow.  We expect rain coverage to increase from south to north as evening gives way to nighttime.  This is all in association with a surface low developing along a stationary boundary to our south.  This area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River (Thursday) to the interior northeast (Friday).  (Indiana snow enthusiasts know that’s a perfect track for the snowy “goods” if only it was a month, or so, later). We will continue to dream… :-)

Back to regularly scheduled programming…

Rain will grow in coverage and intensity Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and periods of rain will be with us through the day Thursday.  Heaviest rains should fall through the southern half of the state (where localized 2″+ totals are possible).  The other weather element we’ll have to deal with Thursday is an increasingly chilly and raw northeast wind shifting to the north late.  Temperatures will remain steady and slowly fall by evening.

As the area of low pressure pulls off to the northeast, it’ll help drive the coolest air of the season southward.  Patchy frost is possible for outlying areas Saturday morning.  Fall foliage should be looking “really nice” this weekend across central IN.

Dry, but breezy, conditions will be with us early next week, but we’re eyeing our next storm system by the middle to latter portions of the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier amounts southeast)

Warm Winds Give Way To Rain And Cooler Air…


  • Warm SW winds
  • Cooler air arrives mid week with rain
  • Much cooler to close the week

A Little Something For Everyone…The big story over the next 24-48 hours will be unseasonably warm temperatures, but equally as impressive, strong and gusty winds (30-40MPH).  Enjoy the extended period of shorts and short sleeves, but please note a “big hair warning” is in effect through Tuesday night.  :-)

A cold front will slip through the state Wednesday (from north to south) and could spark a scattered shower as it drifts south.  Eventually the front will stall along the KY border.  This is in response to an area of low pressure developing to our southwest.  The surface low will lift northeast and help spread widespread soaking rain across the state Thursday.  Additionally, we’ll note a much cooler air mass and winds that will shift around to the north in the PM, helping drive a much cooler close to the week.  Moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be expected Thursday.

As we get set to put a wrap on the week, we’ll get back to weather we’d expect for this time of year: dry, cool, and crisp!  In fact, patchy frost is possible Saturday morning across outlying areas away from the city.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Remarkable Summer Feel Through Mid Week; Late Week Changes…

Before we talk about the warmth, we have some showers and embedded thunder to deal with across parts of the region today.  Best rain chances today will be along and north of I-70, but a few showers could scoot south later this afternoon.  We note most concentrated rain should fall through the early afternoon hours before moving out to allow for a dry evening.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of

Forecast radar 12p, courtesy of

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of

We get back to a dry pattern Monday and Tuesday.  Along with the dry conditions, unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected.  Along with the summer-like feel, very strong southwest winds will be noted (gusts to 30-40 MPH).

A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of

A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of

The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of

The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of

Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s and rival records across central IN.  While that’s impressive enough, overnight lows of 65-70 are almost unheard of.

Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of

Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of

Cooler air will begin to move in by late week as a trough replaces the warm ridge.  While we’re very confident on the much cooler feel, details in regards to the specifics around rain timing and amounts remain “muddy” at best.  We’ll forecast best rain chances to arrive Thursday, but caution this may have to be fine tuned as we move forward.  Highs that were in the 80s for early week will crash late week (upper 50s to lower 60s).

European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of

European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of

As of now, next weekend looks dry and cool, but it was only yesterday that rain chances looked like they may continue into the early portions of the weekend. Stay tuned.  As previously mentioned, temperatures will be much cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s for lows and lower to middle 60s for highs).

Complete 7-day will be posted later!

From Summer To Fall…


  • Stretch of unseasonably warm, summer-like weather
  • Turning much cooler late in the period
  • Unsettled to close the work week

Near Record Warmth Gives Way To A Cooler Feel…We have to deal with low clouds and areas of fog this morning, but expect enough wind to mix things out and return us to a variably cloudy sky this afternoon.  Significantly warmer conditions are on tap today than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple days.  Winds will become gusty this afternoon (20-30 MPH).

Scattered showers will drop south Sunday.  These will impact mostly northern locations (north of I-70) and won’t be a big deal.

Monday and Tuesday will feature strong and gusty southwest winds (30-40 MPH), dry conditions, and near record warmth.  Highs in the lower 80s for mid October is downright impressive, but the warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s is almost unheard of for this time of year.  Enjoy the stretch of extended summer.

Our weather pattern will offer up an increasingly chilly regime late week and the overall evolution of a storm system is still up in the air in regards to rain timing and amounts.  For now we’re leaning towards a wet, chilly, and blustery forecast Thursday and Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Warm & Windy This Weekend; Changeable Weather Next Week…

Central Indiana will enjoy a nice open to the weekend. High pressure will scoot off to the east and allow a warmer, but blustery return southwesterly flow. Though we’ll be warmer tomorrow, winds will increase and gust to 30-40 MPH late in the day. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s.

Sunday will feature an increase in cloudiness, but most shower activity should remain across northern and north-central parts of the state. Even in areas that receive rain Sunday, amounts will be light and insignificant. Here’s a look at what the radar may look like Sunday afternoon. It’ll be another unseasonably warm day as highs top out between 75°-80°, despite the increase in cloud cover.

Speaking of warmth, that will be the major story for early and middle parts of the work week. Highs around 80° and warm overnight lows in the 60s (where our average high should be) can be expected with dry, but windy, conditions in play. Extended summer, anyone?!

Changes are brewing for the latter portion of the week and that will require most of our attention over the weekend as far as sifting through the various details. While confidence is high in a transition to drastically cooler conditions, the evolution of specifics concerning rain chances results in a much lower level of confidence. As it stands now, we’ll increase rain chances for the late week period (late Wednesday into Thursday), but the duration of wet weather is up in the air. The GEFS (below) shows the wetter pattern returning.

Note the various ensemble solutions (above) of how the upper air pattern may look in the 8-10 day period. Solutions range from a drier and downright chilly look (European) to one that’s cooler, but still unsettled (GFS, GEM). Time is required to continue to fine tune things.

All of that said, as previously mentioned, we’re much more confident in the cooler look to close October. The GEFS sees that, as well.