Refreshing Times Ahead…

Screen Shot 2016-08-31 at 7.16.54 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered afternoon storms
  • Turning much drier and cooler tonight
  • Refreshing into the weekend

Cold Front Inbound…We’re getting to that time of the year where cold fronts will begin to pack more and more of a punch, offering up increasingly cool to, eventually, cold air…  An early fall-like front will surge south this evening.  Ahead of the boundary, scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into the evening- particularly from central into southern portions of the state.  Storms will be moving relatively quickly this evening so flash flood concerns are limited.

Behind the front, much drier and cooler air will ooze into the region tonight and set us up for an absolutely delightful few days of weather, complete with dry skies and low humidity.  Temperatures into the upper 40s wouldn’t surprise us Saturday morning for outlying communities.

Eventually the heat will return from Labor Day into most of next week.  As moisture surges north, scattered storm chances will also return to our forecast by Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″

Changes Ahead…

Today into Wednesday will offer up more of what we’ve grown so accustomed to over the past several days- incredibly humid air, along with scattered heavy thunderstorms.  Similar to days past, the humid, “heavy” nature to our air will help fuel localized torrential downpours.

Thankfully, the hour glass has been “flipped” and time is running out on the humid air mass.  In fact, as early as Thursday morning, we’ll notice a huge change.  A northeast flow will provide a much drier brand of air and temperatures will also cool significantly.  Several mornings (Thursday through Sunday) will feature lows in the 50s with highs in the 70s.  Lows into the upper 30s will drive southeast into the high ground of the beautiful east TN mountains.

NEFlow

1

3Eventually, our air flow will back around to the southwest and help push Labor Day into the “hot” territory.  Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 will be common for Labor Day, itself.

The balance of the first half of September looks warm, but there are indications for changes to begin showing up towards mid to late month that would lead towards more sustained, consistent pushes of cool…

Well-Earned Break From The Heat, Humidity On Deck…

Screen Shot 2016-08-29 at 10.17.36 PMHighlights:

  • Scattered storm chances remain for now
  • Drier and much cooler air on deck
  • Dry, but hot Labor Day looms

Breath Of Fresh Air Awaits…Once we get through the next (48) hours, a much more pleasant, early fall-like, air mass awaits.  Beforehand, we still have plenty of heat and humidity to deal with, along with the all-too-familiar mention of scattered (but heavy) thunderstorms.  Thankfully, a cold front will push through the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and usher in a much cooler and drier air mass to wrap up the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.  High pressure will supply a refreshing northeasterly flow Thursday into Friday, supporting breezy conditions and much cooler air.  It’ll be the type air mass that will make you take notice fall isn’t that far off, after all.

As we push closer to Labor Day, itself, our air flow will back around to the southwest and assist with a warmer and increasingly moist brand of air for the holiday, into the majority of the Week 2 period…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″ (locally heavier totals)

Tropical Feel This Weekend…

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 6.01.18 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered weekend storms
  • Humid air mass
  • Less storm coverage early next week

Air You Can Wear…A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass will remain in place across the region this weekend.  While storms will be scattered, the moisture-laden air will help promote locally heavy storms at times.  Get used to heat indices in the mid-upper 90s into early next week.  Yuck!

Storm coverage will be on the decrease, overall, as we open the new work week.  That said, we have to maintain isolated coverage.  A weak boundary will slip through central IN the middle of next week and lead to scattered to numerous storms Wednesday.

In the tropics, Invest 99L remains at the forefront.  There are many more questions than answers at this time, but if the disturbance (somehow, someway) can make it into the southeastern GOM early next week, conditions will be much more favorable for development.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.75″-1.25″ (locally heavier amounts)

Wednesday Evening Thoughts: For The Love Of Weather, We Have To Get Better…

Indiana is blessed with a truly incredible weather community.  Please understand that I’m not just throwing around the word “community” lightly here.  The relationships that have stemmed from one single common trait, the love of weather, have simply blown me away.  I can’t tell you how many conversations started years ago, based solely on a snowstorm, tornado outbreak, arctic blast, flood, heat wave, etc. that have now blossomed into a full blown friendship.  Please know that the interactions, whether it be face-to-face, or via social media mean more than you know.  They’re truly treasured.

The post this evening is filled with emotion.  On one hand, I find it downright incredible that we’re not hearing of a loss of life or widespread severe injuries this evening.  Cutting right to the heart of the matter, you don’t need me to tell you this was a bonafide tornado outbreak across Indiana this evening.  When the surveys are in, I’m sure they’ll only reaffirm the fact of multiple, significant tornadoes that touched down across the great Hoosier state.  8.24.16  will be remembered for a long, long time.  We have improved technology to thank for the lack of injuries and loss of life, but, more importantly, an incredibly talented weather community communicating information at warp speed with one single goal in mind- saving lives.

I say that to get to this point: we have to get better.  On a day where multiple, violent tornadoes touched down across our state, there’s no reason we should’ve only been in a “Marginal” risk of severe weather.  I say that not to be critical, but to simply face a fact and urge the entire meteorological community to continue pushing for more- each and every day.  Looking in the mirror, myself, I should’ve taken a deeper dive into the set-up and dynamics in play early this morning.  I begin sifting through data around 5a each and every morning and post various information on our social media accounts and here at IndyWx.com.  Today, that wasn’t enough.  End of the story.

In the past couple of months, significant tornadoes have touched down across central IN when, in all actuality, the environment at play was less than even close to being “textbook” to spawning such events.  The issue at hand is multi-faceted and requires a great deal of work continuing to improve modeling, but also communication.  Tireless work is required.  Data has to improve, but so does communication.

Understand that I’m not placing blame on any one, or any organization, but simply urging each and every one of us to continue pushing for more.  It’s not okay to have multiple, violent tornadoes touch down in our forecast area with a “Marginal” risk of severe weather the morning of the event.  IndyWx.com had mention of “strong to severe” storm potential in this morning’s discussion.  That’s not acceptable given the events that played out today.  WE have to get better and improve the ultra-fine line of preparing the public of the potential without crossing the line of panic.  Please know, at the end of the day, my promise to each and every single viewer of IndyWx.com is that’s exactly what we will strive to do.

At the end of the day, only God knows what the future holds.  It’s incredibly peaceful knowing that.  With that said, it can’t stop us from trying to maximize our time on this earth continuing to strive for better warning of looming storms and reaching for even more lead time when it comes to saving lives.

** IndyWx.com specializes in medium and long-term forecast information and discussions, and should never be used as a sole provider of warning information.  Please refer to the National Weather Service for up to the second warning information.

Wednesday Morning Weather Notebook…

1.)  Humidity is on the rise this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow late morning into the early afternoon.

CODNEXLAB-1km-C_Illinois-rad-ani24-201608241115-100-100-022.)  HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.

13.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday.  We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week.  That said, “briefly” is the key word.  Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.

DryMoist4.)  Attention next week will shift to the tropics.  There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week.  Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.

Here on the home front, it’s not entirely out of the equation our region deals with tropical remnants in the Week 2 time period.

Patience is required as we sort through the data in the coming days…

AL99_current

It’s Still Summer, After All…

Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 7.09.32 AMHighlights:

  • Dry pattern continues today
  • Mid week storms
  • Questions abound this weekend

Heat And Humidity Return…High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front as we progress from early to mid week.  Ahead of the front, a southwest air flow will transport an increasingly warm and muggy air mass northward.  It’ll, unfortunately, feel much more humid Wednesday and Thursday.  With the frontal boundary nearby and the increased humidity, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday (along with locally heavy downpours).  A couple strong storms are also possible.

We still think drier air will press into central IN to wrap up the work week and head into the first half of the weekend.  That said, moisture returns as early as Sunday and leads to a mention of thunderstorms, especially during the PM.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune timing.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  1.00″-1.50″

An Early Taste Of Fall…

Screen Shot 2016-08-21 at 11.51.52 AMHighlights:

  • Cooler and mostly sunny
  • Dry weather into the early parts of the work week
  • Midweek storms

Early Fall Preview…A cold front swept through the state last night and was accompanied by strong storms and heavy rain.  The unsettled conditions are now to our east and in return we’re left with a much cooler, drier, and breezy day.  With low humidity, temperatures running significantly below normal, and a NW breeze in place, you have our approval to begin shifting thoughts to fall. :-)

Dry and pleasant air will remain in place through early week before we back the air flow around to the SW.  Increasingly muggy conditions will return Wednesday into Thursday and as a cold front interacts with the moist air in place, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase Wednesday into Thursday.  The good news?  The front should slide to our south and result in dry and pleasant conditions next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″