Warmth & Humidity Build; Storms Return…

We’ve enjoyed a stretch of dry and pleasant air, but that will come to an end this weekend as warmth and humidity build and help fuel storms at times later today into Sunday.

Debris clouds associated with a complex of storms to our west are drifting into the state this morning.

  
Most of today will remain dry, but storm chances will increase this evening and tonight. We’ll note a very pleasant air mass this morning turn muggy by evening. Surface dew points will increase from the middle 60s into the lower 70s (oppressive range).

   
 
Precipitable water will also be on the increase as a southwesterly air flow transports moisture-rich air northward over the weekend into early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms that develop will be plenty capable of producing torrential rainfall and flash flooding in spots through early to mid week.

   
 
Thunderstorms could develop as early as mid to late evening into the overnight and a few could be strong.

  
The Canadian forecast model has a stripe of locally heavy rainfall through the region into early next week.

  
The European leans towards the Canadian displayed above with heavy rains possible through Tuesday. The GFS is drier. We’ll hedge more towards the direction of the Euro and Canadian.

In the short term, heat and humidity will be associated with a hot dome centered off to our southwest. We’ll have to be mindful of storms riding the periphery of the hot dome in northwest to southeast fashion. (Sound familiar)? That said, note significant changes for early August as we transition the hot ridge over the west and replace it with a rather significant late summer trough and associated cool air mass over our region.

This week

  
Early August

  

Can’t Ask For Anything Better This Time Of Year…

Screen Shot 2015-07-23 at 11.28.22 PMHighlights:

  • Beauty of a close to the work week
  • Humidity and storm chances return this weekend
  • Turning hot ahead of a cold front next week

We simply can’t ask for more beautiful weather this time of year than what we’ll enjoy to wrap up the work week.  (3 day weekend, anyone)?  Make time to spend outdoors today!

Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick this weekend and with the increasingly humid air, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected.  That said, there’ll be more dry time than not this weekend so there’s no need to cancel any of those outdoor plans.

Heat will build early next week, along with continued “splash and dash” storm coverage- particularly of the PM variety.  Best rain and storm chances should come Thursday as a cold front draws near.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″ (locally heavier totals under stronger storms)

Needed Break From The Rain…

It’s been a very wet July across these parts. Specifically talking about Indianapolis, we’re running a whopping 8.5″ above normal, month-to-date! 

  

Cool and wet has been the theme across a large portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

   
 
We’re now enjoying a much needed break from the wet weather, and the overall dry trend can be expected to continue as we wrap up the work week. An isolated shower is possible Thursday, but most, if not all, of central IN should remain rain-free. 

A big ridge of high pressure will dominate as we put an end to the work week Friday. 

  
We should also continue to enjoy a very pleasant air mass Friday before moisture returns over the weekend. Note the change in moisture content from Friday to Saturday.

   
 
With the increasing moisture, we’ll continue to introduce an isolated thunderstorm chance into the forecast over the weekend, particularly during the prime heating hours.

This will set the tone for more of an unsettled work week next week, including better chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. The Canadian model, in particular, is rather bullish on (10) day rainfall totals.

  
As we look farther down the road, forecast models seem to be suggesting a rather classic El Niño late summer pattern unfolding. This would place the mean ridge position over the west with a cooler trough downstream, reflected over the area.

   
 
This places the region under the gun for more active weather ahead in the coming weeks. Not only is that northwest flow challenging with storm timing, but it can also deliver some unseasonably cool air (case in point, our current bout of refreshing air). We think August opens on a pleasant note, as well.

Before we close we wanted to briefly touch on the upcoming fall and winter months. NOAA posted this image Wednesday trying to draw some comparisons between the ’97-’98 El Niño and this year. 

  
Right off the bat we note some significant differences with the water profile in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the warm anomalies in the northeast Pacific have been a huge player (not the sole reason, but a major ingredient in the mix) in two back-to-back cold, snowy winters for our region.

When we look at the current SST anomalies we note the warm northeast Pacific anomalies remain. Longer term modeling suggests the warm profile across the Pacific includes that same look into the winter months, yet again. 

  
Bottom line, each El Niño is different and we have a long way to go and a lot of “fun times” ahead!

Beautiful Weather Continues…

Screen Shot 2015-07-22 at 7.58.45 AMHighlights:

  • Stretch of dry, beautiful, weather continues
  • Warming up and turning more humid this weekend
  • Isolated storm chances by Sunday

Beautiful weather continues today, thanks to a big area of high pressure.  It almost feels like early fall out there this morning (and we’re certainly not complaining).

Overall, we’re looking at dry weather continuing into the weekend.  There’s a weak disturbance that will pass Thursday and could spark an isolated shower, but we don’t think this will be a big deal in the least.

Temperatures will be on the uptick this weekend along with humidity levels and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected Sunday before better rain chances Monday.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ -1.00″

Now We’re Talking…

Screen Shot 2015-07-20 at 10.49.35 PMHighlights:

  • Lingering storms downstate Tuesday
  • Nice stretch of late-summer weather coming
  • Spotty weekend storm coverage

Though we have rain pelting the window panel as I type this (late Monday night), a drier pattern is waiting on deck and will begin to engulf the region Tuesday.  We’ll note redevelopment of isolated to widely scattered storms downstate Tuesday afternoon, but most of central IN will remain dry.  It’s only the beginning of a nice and dry stretch that will take us through the end of the work week.  Thank sprawling high pressure centering itself over the Ohio Valley.

Moisture will return over the weekend so it’ll feel more humid and heat will build.  Add in the humidity with a passing disturbance and we have to mention at least widely scattered coverage of storms Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

Needed Dry Time After One More Round Of Storms…

We’re looking ahead to another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening/ tonight, particularly along and south of I-70. Locally heavy rain and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms are a good bet.

Here’s what the Futurecast shows valid at 2a Tuesday. 

  
Changes are coming though as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in for mid week.

   
 
This will result in much needed dry time Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. In fact, most of the upcoming weekend also looks dry, but we’ll include mention of scattered storms over the weekend as moisture begins to return.

Oppressive Feel; Periods Of Storms…

A cold front will limp into the region to open the new week. A wave of low pressure will press east along the boundary Monday before the front pushes far enough south to (fingers crossed) provide a drier time for mid week. 

Before we get to mid week, we’ve got a few days of heavy rain potential and strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center highlights a Slight Risk of severe both today and Monday in their recent update. 

Sunday

   
Monday

 
Large hail and localized damaging wind reports are the biggest concern from a severe perspective.

The overall pattern is a similar one in which we’ve grown quite accustomed to over the past 4-6 weeks. Note the hot dome (high pressure ridge) over Texas today grudgingly giving away to the approaching front Tuesday. 

   
 
Talk about a soupy feel out there this morning. Surface dew points are in the “oppressive” category for sure. Lower and middle 70° dew points are for the tropical regions, but not here across the Mid West. 

  
We also note precipitable water values are quite impressive and suggest any thunderstorm could quickly drop 1-2″ of rain within a short period of time this afternoon. Localized flash flooding will, once again, be a concern.

   
 
Our future cast radar product, courtesy of weatherbell.com, suggests showers and thunderstorms move in late this morning into the afternoon.

   
   
When you factor in a couple rounds of storms today and Monday, hefty rainfall is likely to result. Pockets of 3″+ totals are quite possible by early Tuesday morning. 

  

Watching For More Evening Storms…

The heat & humidity is the story currently, but short term models develop showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over the northern half of the state this evening. 

Futurecast valid 8p

  
Updated Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center

  
With all of the moisture in the atmosphere we’ll have to be mindful for more flash flooding concerns this evening and localized downbursts. 

Flash flood guidance is running very low around central IN, including amounts of only 1″-1.25″ within an hour resulting in flash flooding.

  
Be weather aware this evening into the overnight.