Improving Weather Through The Day…

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

67/ 80

60/ 83

64/ 87

69/ 89

55/ 73

49/ 73

51/ 76 

Decreasing Rain Coverage; Increasing Sunshine…A shield of moderate to heavy rain encompassed the state during the overnight.  This shield of rain is slowly moving east, southeast and we’ll be looking at improving weather through the day.  There’s still the chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm late morning or early afternoon as a frontal boundary slides through the region.

Sunny Days…As we progress through the mid and late week stretch, we’ll enjoy dry skies and plentiful sunshine.  Normal lows and highs are in the lower 60s and lower 80s this time of year, so we’ll be very close to that Wednesday before moderating temperatures take us warmer than average to wrap up the work week.

Late Week Cold Front; Autumn Feel This Weekend…A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass Friday evening and lead to the possibility of a broken line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.  A MUCH cooler air mass will then invade the region behind the boundary, leading to a true fall-like feel this weekend!

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent us this beautiful sunrise photo Saturday morning before storms invaded portions of central Indiana.  Thanks, John!

BwSIn32CIAAqYL7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You'll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades...

Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You’ll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades…

Beneficial Steady Rains Coming Overnight…

I’m just getting settled back in from Auburn, AL, but wanted to update a couple of items before a complete 7-day post in the morning.

1.) Rain is continuing to become more widespread to our southwest and will overspread southern and central Indiana during the overnight into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  Most communities will accumulate 0.50″-1.00″ of needed rain, but a few locally heavier totals (closer to 2″) can be expected.  The HRRR forecast rainfall totals by 11am (when most of the rain will be ending across even our eastern counties) looks solid and we agree with this for the most part.  Note the heavier forecast totals across southwestern Indiana.

hrrr_t_precip_indy_16

2.)  A cold front will sweep the state Friday night into Saturday morning and result in a MUCH cooler weekend.  Temperatures will fall to well below normal levels (by 5-8 degrees on average) over the weekend and result in a perfect, early fall-like, feel!  Highs Saturday through Monday will likely only range in the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows in the lower 50s (a few readings into the 40s can be expected outside the city).

gfs_t2max_a_f_conus2_51

Watching Monday Evening Severe Potential…

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Monday.

IMG_1437.GIF

More specifically, we’re targeting Monday evening into the overnight for severe potential. Heads up for those traveling back into town from a long Labor Day weekend.

Forecast radar shows a line of strong to severe storms moving into the area Monday evening. Greatest concern within this line will be damaging straight line winds and large hail.

IMG_1439.PNG

IMG_1438.PNG

CAPE (convective available potential energy) will reach 3,000- 3,500 J/kg. Anything over 2000 is considered enough energy for severe potential should a trigger mechanism be in place.

IMG_1440.PNG

Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture will be in place. Surface dew points will be in the oppressive range- lower 70s.

IMG_1442.PNG

Precipitable water values will reach 2″ in spots and suggests locally heavy rain will result.

IMG_1441.PNG

60 hour rainfall totals will be hefty for some, including additional 2.5″ totals in localized communities.

IMG_1443.PNG

Bottom Line:

We forecast the threat if severe thunderstorms Monday evening into the overnight. Damaging wind and large hail are of greatest concern at this time. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern as some locations have received impressive rainfall totals over the past week.

Localized Downpours; Warm Close To August…

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-storm-night-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

70/ 84

69/ 85

70/ 88

70/ 83

62/ 85

67/ 88

68/ 90 

More Dry Hours Than Stormy…It’s hard to believe the long Labor Day holiday weekend is upon us.  The unofficial end to summer (by the way, meteorological fall runs September through November) will wrap up on an unseasonably warm note.  Southwesterly breezes will blow and transport plenty of warm and humid air northbound.  Needless to say, It’ll feel unseasonably warm and humid and scattered thunderstorms will be around.  High moisture content will help promote localized heavy downpours. That said, we’re certainly not looking at any sort of all day washouts by any stretch of the imagination.  Get outside and enjoy the late summer warmth, but just be prepared in case a shower or storm briefly blows overhead.

Better Rain And Storm Chances…Best rain chances in the above forecast period will arrive Monday evening into Tuesday. This is when we anticipate most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms, including the potential of a couple stronger storms and locally heavy downpours.  Slightly less humid air will work into the picture by mid week.

Remaining Above Normal…Rain chances can’t be totally eliminated from your forecast late next week, but overall coverage will likely be diminished when compared to Tuesday.  It’ll remain warmer than average with mid to upper 80s in the forecast (normal highs are around 80 this time of year) with a southeastern ridge in place.  In fact, many thermometers may crack the 90 degree mark next Friday.  We’re making up for lost time in the heat department…

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  0.00″

John Salewicz snapped this Zionsville sunrise photo Friday morning.  ”Follow the clouds to the sun…”  Thanks, John!

BwM321mCEAAoyW1.jpg-large

hires_ref_ky_22

Another slug of moisture will impact central Indiana Saturday. Not everyone will get wet and no all day rains are forecast, but there will be some periodic wet times.

Muggy And Potentially Stormy IndySportsReport.com Football Forecast

Good morning football fans! Your IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast promises to be a warm and humid one with storm potential…

A warm front will lift north through the region this evening and thunderstorms will likely erupt along the boundary separating slightly less humid air and downright tropical air. We target late afternoon through the evening hours for storm potential and will officially classify expected coverage as “scattered.” Not all will get wet, but we suggest taking the rain gear along.

Forecast radar at 5pm

IMG_1426.PNG

It’ll be a warm and muggy night as kickoff temperatures in the middle 80s only fall into the upper 70s by game’s end. Dew points will hover around 65°-70°.

IMG_1428.PNG

Official IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast for Friday, Aug 29th:

Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Kickoff temperatures in the middle 80s will fall into the upper 70s by game’s end. Rainfall potential tonight will be around half an inch, but locally heavier amounts are possible with stronger storms.

Thoughts Through The First Couple Weeks Of September…

Forecast data suggests that we are likely to remain in a warmer than normal pattern (in the overall sense) through the first couple weeks of September. Additionally, precipitation looks above normal, as well. While we thought we would see brief inroads of less humid air from time to time, recall, we have been talking about September being milder than normal for some time. Could we see a day or two of cooler, less humid air that’s more like early September? Absolutely. That being said, the overall 10-14 days ahead appears to offer a warmer than normal feel for the first half of September.

The upper air pattern should continue to feature a southeastern ridge in place while the coolest air in the country (in the means and relative to normal) positions itself across the northern Rockies (where snow has already been flying, btw) back into the northwest regions with a persistent trough.

Note the European ensembles top (valid Sept. 7th) and GFS ensembles bottom (valid Sept. 13th) show the southeastern ridge remaining intact.

IMG_1422.GIF

IMG_1421.PNG

The NAEFS top (temperature anomalies valid Sept. 5th through Sept. 12th) and CFSv2 bottom (week 1 and week 2 temperature anomalies) show exactly what this above mentioned pattern would result in through mid month.

IMG_1423.PNG

IMG_1424.GIF

In addition to a warmer than normal pattern, it also appears as if it’s a wetter than normal one, as well. Note the GFS and Canadian forecast precipitation totals through next Friday (Sept. 5th). Widespread 2-3″ amounts are forecast over our region.

IMG_1420.PNG

IMG_1419.PNG

Bottom Line:

The upcoming 10-14 days looks to be dominated by a southeast ridge and northwest trough. Warmer and more humid than average conditions will be the result across our immediate region. Precipitation also looks to run above normal during the period, including widespread 2-3″ rainfall totals just through the 5th.

Slightly Less Humid; Still Can’t Rule Out A Storm…

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

65/ 87

69/ 89

68/ 88

70/ 83

70/ 87

69/ 83

58/ 82 

Break In Humidity Won’t Last Long…A briefly drier air mass will filter into the region tonight into Thursday, but won’t last long.  Heat and humidity will return to wrap up the work week and move into the weekend.  A couple of storms will be possible Thursday, but most should remain rain-free.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday through Sunday.  We’re not talking about a weekend wash out by any means and there will be more dry hours than stormy.

Early Week Cold Front…A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening and feature a cooler and drier brand of air for mid week.  Stormy times continue beforehand with shower and thunderstorms in our Monday and Tuesday forecast before we dry things out Wednesday.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  0.00″
A briefly drier air mass will move into the region late tonight into Thursday.  Humidity will return quickly to wrap up the work week.

A briefly drier air mass will move into the region late tonight into Thursday. Humidity will return quickly to wrap up the work week.

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

1.) Showers and storms will be most numerous this morning as a frontal boundary slips into the region. We can’t rule out some afternoon redevelopment, but believe the most widespread activity is through the first half of the day.

2.) A disturbance in the northwest Gulf has our attention, but should move inland before having a chance to develop into a depression. LA and TX appear most at risk for significant rainfall from this system.

3.) A continued very wet time of things is ahead for our region as models lock in to 2-3″ rainfall totals the coming 10 days, including locally heavier amounts.

4.) The mid to long range pattern (days 8-12) appear milder than normal, but not as oppressive as what we’ve dealt with the past few days.

The overall pattern will feature the coolest air across the northwest and warmest air across the east (relative to average) through the opening week of September.

Front Moves In This Evening…

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

69/ 90

69/ 87

64/ 86

65/ 89

68/ 88

69/ 86

70/ 88 

Frontal Boundary Leads To Better Shower And Storm Coverage…A cold front will slip through central Indiana later this evening. This will be a focal point in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon and evening.  Locally heavy downpours can be expected though rainfall amounts won’t be uniform (rarely are this time of year).

The boundary will move just south of the region Wednesday before stalling out. It’ll remain close enough to maintain mention of scattered thunderstorms into your mid week forecast with a drier forecast Thursday.  Temperatures will slip backwards a couple of notches and humidity values will improve to a degree mid week.

Stormy Times Return…After a somewhat drier time of things mid week, unsettled times will return late week into the Labor Day weekend. No all day rains are anticipated, but there will be periods of storminess into and through the weekend.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

We received a couple colorful sunrise pictures this morning from Boone County, highlighted by cloud shots from storms ongoing to our north.  Thanks to John (T) and Paul (B) for these great photos this morning! 

Bv9ahviIYAAWd7Z

Bv9coEGCYAEcfGY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rainfall totals will be far from uniform today, but more locally heavy downpours can be expected.

Rainfall totals will be far from uniform today, but more locally heavy downpours can be expected.

Monday Evening Rambles…

1.) What exciting news we had the pleasure of sharing earlier this morning.  We’re pumped for our partnership with the fine folks over at IndySportsReport.com!

2.)  The steering current will keep us on our toes over the coming days as periodic storm clusters threaten.  It’s tough to pin point precise timing or location where these storm complexes will track, but it’s safe to say the overall region will be a focal point for additional storminess in the days ahead.

stormtrack

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.) Heat and humidity remain in the oppressive range through late week, before a potential punch of slightly cooler/ drier air.  Admittedly, ridges can be difficult to move this time of year and models are struggling in handling the details in the mid range.  We’ll keep an eye on things. As of now, we don’t see any sort of major push of cool/ refreshing air through at least the short to mid range period.  The Canadian is the most bullish on a period of cooler air as we get into September.  Stay tuned.

4.) We’ve made up for lost time in the rainfall department over the past week, or so.  What was, initially, a bone dry August has improved.  We’re now only running a little more than three tenths behind where we should be, officially.