Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

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We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Cooler Today, But A Bigger Cool Shot Arrives Friday…

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56/ 70

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Cooler Today And Not As Bright…The plentiful sunshine and warm temperatures we’ve enjoyed for the past 7 days+ will shift towards a more unsettled time of things in the days ahead.  Today is just the beginning of a 1-2 punch of cooler air impacting the region.  A cold front is moving through central Indiana this morning and will result in more cloudiness today (late day brightening expected) along with a north wind shift and cooler conditions.  Lows tonight will fall into the 40s for most central Indiana communities.  Wednesday will be delightful- lots of sunshine and seasonable early autumn air.

Strong Cold Front Blasts Through…We’ll cloud things back up through the day Thursday and introduce showers and thunderstorms into your forecast Thursday night into Friday.  A couple of gusty thunderstorms are possible as the front moves through.  MUCH cooler air will pour into the area Friday afternoon and evening on gusty northwest winds.

Chilly Weekend Setting Up…The weekend will certainly require those long sleeve shirts and jackets as a MUCH cooler autumn air mass settles over the Mid West and Ohio Valley region.  Most of Saturday will likely feature mostly cloudy skies, gusty northwest winds, and sprinkles before late day clearing begins.  Note the unseasonable chill in place- only middle 50s Saturday. More sunshine is expected Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Weekly Outlook: Pleasant, But Big Changes Hit Late Week…

- What a beauty of a Sunday evening underway! Temperatures across the Ohio Valley and Mid West are running 15°-20° above where we’d expect them.

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The recent dry, warm stretch is beginning to balance out the cool, wet September we had going.

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The week ahead will be dominated by more delightful early autumn weather before significant changes take place as we wrap up the work week.

Note how the upper air pattern undergoes a drastic transition from eastern ridging to a cool trough for the upcoming weekend.

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Temperatures will respond, as well, shifting from late summer levels to mid fall readings late week into the weekend.

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A strong cold front will deliver showers and potential gusty thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall amounts between 0.50″-1″ can be expected.

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Saturday will showcase chilly fall air along with gusty northwest winds as the surface low deepens exiting the Great Lakes region. Plentiful lake effect showers and cloudiness can be expected across the northern Indiana Snowbelt region.

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Warm IndySportsReport.Com Colts Forecast

Colts v. Titians Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

09.28.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  High pressure will remain firmly entrenched across the Ohio Valley region and this will supply tailgaters with ideal early fall weather.  Despite some mid and high level cloudiness early, sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected with a light breeze.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather!”

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Mid and high level clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Partly cloudy Mostly clear
Temp: 60-70 Temp: 78-80 Temp:  81-83
Wind:  NE 5 MPH Wind: NE 5 MPH Wind:  NE 5 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.00”

 

Morning mid and high level cloudiness should give way to increasingly sunny conditions this afternoon.

Morning mid and high level cloudiness should give way to increasingly sunny conditions this afternoon.

Enjoy This Weekend; Changes Coming…

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56/ 80

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58/ 80

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Warm; Sun-Filled Weekend…High pressure will anchor itself over the eastern Great Lakes and remain close enough to our region to supply continued sunny skies and dry conditions.  We’ll also continue to enjoy a much warmer than normal feel of things (normal highs this time of year are in the lower 70s).  Enjoy, because this time next week will look and feel MUCH different…

On Cruise Control…No reason to waste many pixels on the early and mid week stretch.  Dry skies and warm air will be the rule up until Friday.

Strong Autumn Cold Front…A strong cold front will move into the area Friday and crash our perfect weather party.  Look for increasing clouds Thursday along with showers and thunderstorms Friday.  Temperatures will crash behind the boundary and set up a weekend that feels more like November than October.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Jason Burton sent in this beautiful sunrise shot from Union City Friday morning!  Thanks, Jason!

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Fan of calm, warm weather?  Enjoy this weekend. A look at next weekend shows a drastically different look...

Fan of calm, warm weather? Enjoy this weekend. A look at next weekend shows a drastically different look…

Another Dry Evening For Your IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast

We’re gearing up for another big evening of high school football across central Indiana and we’re going to be blessed with yet more ideal weather conditions. Look for dry skies and unseasonably warm temperatures.

This morning’s satellite shows high pressure supplying fair skies across our region.

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Temperatures will still be in the lower to middle 70s as the first quarter is wrapping up across many central Indiana communities this evening.

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Your official IndySportsReport.com forecast for Friday, Sept. 26th:

No reason to waste many pixels on this forecast :-) . Fair skies and mild. Kickoff temperatures will be in the middle 70s before slowly falling into the middle to upper 60s by the final whistle. Winds will generally be light and out of the east at 5-10 MPH.

Focusing On The Warmth…

The extended stretch of dry weather will continue well into next week. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures will also moderate from the unseasonably cool conditions for the majority of this month to unseasonably warm to wrap up the month and open October.

Today’s highs should have no problem reaching the mid to upper 70s.

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Eventually we’ll target late next week for an increasingly stormy time of things and much cooler. Before that, however, strong ridging promises more dry, unseasonably warm weather across these parts.

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Highs around 80° can be expected over the weekend and continuing into early next week with a strong southwest flow in place. This will be a solid 5-10° above average.

If you’re a fan of warm weather, enjoy! Early indications continue to suggest a colder, snowier than normal winter may be waiting in the wings… (More details around that later).

Sun-Filled Forecast Continues…

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4675

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Closing Out The Work Week On A Beautiful Note…High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather as we put a wrap on the work week.  After a chilly open to the week, temperatures will moderate closer to seasonal levels today and above normal levels late week, continuing into early next week.  Lots of sunshine will remain locked into your forecast picture.

Moisture Slowly Returns…Moisture will slowly return as we progress into early next week.  Most, if not all, of Monday should be dry, but we’ll include the chance of an isolated shower.  Scattered shower chances continue Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″-0.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Are you a fan of winter weather? Just for fun this morning we thought we’d show you the latest JAMSTEC seasonal forecast that’s hot off the press.  This implies plenty of “fun and games” if you’re a snow and cold fan… More details ahead as we progress deeper into fall.

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More On The “Typhoon Rule”

Perhaps you’ve heard folks discuss the “typhoon rule” over the past few weeks. What I despise is when people take credit for certain ideas without giving credit where credit is due. Joe Bastardi (Weatherbell Analytics) was the first that brought this to my attention.

I had the pleasure of hearing Mr. Bastardi speak at Ball State several years ago. (Quick side note- I thought this was open to the public, but upon arriving at the classroom, I believe I was the only one who wasn’t a current student at Ball State. Of course that didn’t deter me from playing the student role for a few hours to hear someone I respect a great deal practically right in my back yard). Anyway, it’s not the actual typhoon recurving that usually leads to a central and eastern US trough 6-10 days later, but, instead, the drivers behind what creates the western Pacific typhoon to recurve that leads to troughiness and associated cooler air downstream 6-10 days after the recurve.

The majority of mid to longer range forecast models continue to suggest October opens warmer than normal.

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That said, note recurving Tropical Storm 16-W (image and forecast track courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center):

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This would imply a central and eastern trough 6-10 days down the road (October 2nd-ish time frame), and obviously a much cooler look than what the data above implies.

Perhaps the European is beginning to catch on….

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To summarize, despite what the majority of mid to long range guidance portrays as a warm October open, let’s keep an eye on that Oct. 1-5 time period for a possible cooler regime yet again. In the face of warm guidance, recurving Tropical Storm 16-W suggests we should monitor for a possible cooler trend in the guidance in the days ahead…

Long Stretch Of Dry Weather…

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46/ 64

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Tranquil Autumn Weather…A prolonged stretch of dry weather is on tap as we open a new work week.  While we’ll start the week off on an unseasonably cool note, temperatures will moderate back to seasonal levels by mid week and above normal levels heading into next weekend.  The next chance of rain won’t arrive until late Sunday and even that is not a good chance (not worth even mentioning in the forecast above just yet).

For all of you fall foliage fans out there, the combination of early cool air through September combined with the extended stretch of dry, sunny days has led to an early start to the color show.  With continued tranquil weather expected, anticipate ideal conditions for continued increased color in the days and weeks ahead.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

We enjoyed a colorful sunset last night off the IndyWx.com observation deck.  :-)

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