Continued Cooler Than Normal…The Great Lakes region and northern Ohio Valley will remain under the influence of a swirling upper low. This will keep better rain shower and embedded thunderstorm chances across northern parts of the state this afternoon. We’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered shower here this afternoon and again Friday, but coverage will be reduced from that which we’ve seen over the past couple days.
Questionable Saturday…Forecast models certainly aren’t in agreement on our weekend forecast and range from a dry and warm Saturday (European solution) to one that features plenty of cloudiness and showers around (GFS solution). The GFS has been the most consistent on our weekend forecast the past several days and we’ll lean our Saturday forecast more in that direction for now. Stay tuned.
Slow Warming Trend Ahead Of Next Storm…A warming trend will continue into the early and middle parts of next week as temperatures reach seasonal to slightly above average levels for a couple days. Our next significant storm system appears to be on the horizon late next week and include rain and storm chances along with another cool down.
We’re looking at another day similar to that which we saw on Tuesday- morning sunshine giving way to afternoon cloudiness and scattered showers and embedded thunder. September-like cool air is combining with day time heating (and the still powerful late July sun angle) and embedded weak disturbances rotating southeast in a fast northwest flow to create this chance of afternoon/ evening showers and embedded thunder. We’ll continue this overall theme into the weekend before drying things out early next week. While everyone won’t see rain, there will be a couple of local downpours. Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels before rising to near normal early next week.
Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday. Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid to long range pattern and the overall tendency for cooler than normal air to continue taking up residence across the middle part of the country into the Ohio Valley region.
As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) and Facebook (search IndyWx.com).
July 2014 is already much cooler than normal month-to-date across the Ohio Valley and Mid West region. With a continued much cooler than normal pattern in place through month’s end, we’ll likely close July as the coolest on record for IND.
We’ll remain in a cooler than normal northwest flow pattern into early August. In fact, the upcoming 10 days doesn’t show any sort of significant summer heat and the majority of those days should be near, or below, average.
Highs today will climb into the lower to middle 70s with increasing afternoon clouds and a possible instability-driven shower this afternoon/ evening. Forecast radar shows this chance of showers. We’re not looking at any sort of widespread or heavy rain, but a couple showers will be around the region later today.
With the cool around around and combining with the still powerful late July sun angle, another day of instability-driven showers are possible late Wednesday.
Much more later today! Btw- if you find anyone serving pumpkin spice lattes let me know. This fall-like weather has me craving one!
A big upper low is located across the eastern Great Lakes. The circulation around this UL feature will result in an unseasonably cool, fall-like, feel across our neck of the woods the next couple days. On that note, the entire forecast period will remain cooler than normal. Sky conditions both today and Tuesday will vary depending on your location. Overall, expect more cloudiness across central and eastern parts of the state compared to the west. Additionally, scattered light showers will be possible this afternoon- more likely east. We’ll repeat this forecast Tuesday, though coverage of showers will be a bit more widespread (still not a huge deal).
The overall theme through this forecast period will be a cooler than average one and a bit unsettled. We’ll remain in a northwest flow regime and weak disturbances will move through the area from time to time, creating a slightly better shower chance each time they rotate through the area. Looking at the temperature forecast the upcoming week sure will have many scratching their head whether or not we’re heading into August or September?! The cool summer of 2014 rolls along…
This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we note scattered redevelopment across north and central parts of the state.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook the region for a severe threat today. Damaging straight line winds and hail are of biggest concern.
Until the autumn-like cold front passes later this evening, central Indiana is in play for scattered to numerous storms.
Future radar product off the high resolution NAM shows this.
Once to this evening, storm chances will shut down dramatically and we’ll note a rather abrupt wind shift to the northwest with the passage of the cold front.
A MUCH cooler, fall-like, air mass will settle into the region and lead to a prolonged period of cooler than normal air as we close July and open August. Record cool readings will be possible early/ mid week.
I’ve cut a video, but have been having technical issues getting it uploaded over the past hour. I’ll continue to work on this and post it should I win the technology “battle…”
While the severe threat and associated damaging wind event is diminished (capping and considerable cloudiness) we don’t won’t to provide a false sense of security. While the widespread damaging wind event is no longer forecast, remain weather aware this evening and overnight as a severe storm or two is certainly possible. Additionally, the flash flood threat remains quite high where storms repeatedly move over the same area (2-3″ can be expected on a localized level). We’ll keep mention of showers and storms in our forecast until an autumn-like cold front sweeps the region tomorrow afternoon/ evening.
The big story moving forward to next week will be yet another push of unseasonably cool air.
More later tonight should the video finally upload. Make it a great evening.
Quick update this morning, but a more extensive discussion will hit the site later this afternoon/ evening.
An initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through central Indiana this morning as a warm front crosses the state. After morning storms rumble through central Indiana the majority of the day will be rain-free and turn downright hot and muggy. An oppressive feel to the air will develop this afternoon as dew points rise into the 70s. We’ll then target another (more widespread and intense) outbreak of severe weather late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a moderate risk of severe weather today:
The ingredients are in place for a significant severe weather episode later tonight…
Big picture overview:
An autumn-like cold front will slice into a very warm, humid, and unstable air mass Sunday. Individual disturbances out ahead of the cold front will combine with ingredients listed below to potentially lead to a rather widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak tonight.
Additionally, short term model data forecasts…
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy and an ingredient of what helps fuel a thunderstorm) to reach 4000-5000 J/kg. Anything over 2000 is enough to lead to strong storms should other factors be in place.
Dew points to climb into the lower and middle 70s.
Precipitable water to reach 2.5″ (suggests a flash flood threat and local microburst potential)
The greatest concern has to do with the potential of a widespread damaging wind event late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday, but concern is also present that a couple of super cells could develop in advance of the more widespread complex of storms. Within these super cells, an opportunity is there for large hail and a tornado potential and we’ll closely monitor this as well.
Concern continues to grow in regards to a possible enhanced damaging wind threat with an evolving complex of storms Saturday night. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Storm Prediction Center upgrade the region to a Moderate Risk of severe weather to account for this in the near future.
Before hand, the first of possible (3) rounds of weekend storms will move in Saturday morning along a warm front. The latest short-term forecast radar products show this well. While locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is possible with this first round of storms, these will likely remain below severe limits.
Thereafter, most of Saturday will be nice, albeit much hotter and more humid. Attention will turn to our northwest late Saturday afternoon/ evening for what’s likely to be a rather explosive episode of strong to severe thunderstorms. The potential is there for this complex to organize into an intense bowing segment capable of producing widespread damaging winds across portions of the Ohio Valley. While we can’t pinpoint precise neighborhoods potentially impacted by this event, folks living across central Indiana should certainly keep abreast of forecasts Saturday. Furthermore, we’re also monitoring for the potential of localized flash flooding as some of our latest short-term forecast models suggest precipitable water values will exceed 2.5″ Saturday. This will help fuel torrential downpours and will aid in flood potential where training of storms occurs. Widespread 1″ rainfall is expected, with locally heavier totals between 2-3″.
Be sure and stay tuned for further updates from here and/ or your local favorite media.
We’re keeping a close eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest (across Iowa and Minnesota) this morning as these will continue to drop southeast with time today. We know we’ll see clouds increase locally from this complex of storms and some of the latest short-term model data brings in light rain during the afternoon as the complex drops southeast into IL and IN- though in a much weaker state. We’ll include mention of an afternoon shower due to this.
As we move into the weekend concern remains around the possibility of multiple thunderstorm complexes impacting our area. The Storm Prediction Center includes us in a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday and Sunday, including the chance of some storms producing a damaging wind and hail threat. We target Saturday morning and again Saturday night and Sunday for the best chances of thunderstorm complexes. Saturday night/ Sunday morning may provide the greatest risk of severe storms, and we’ll continue to monitor. We also note high precipitable water values present this weekend suggesting the threat of some localized flooding where storms train. Widespread 1″ rainfall can be expected this weekend, but we do caution some areas will see locally heavier totals in excess of 2″.
A much cooler, drier and fall-like feel is still slated to blow into town early next week, setting the stage for an incredible close to July and open to August!