PM Strong Storms…

The morning is off to a sunny, muggy, and warm start.  Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon, but when we look at heat indices, it’ll feel like around 100 degrees across many central IN neighborhoods.

The visible satellite shows the sunny skies in place right now, but we note the cloud deck off to the northwest.  That’s in association with a frontal boundary that will press through our region tonight.

VisA line of thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and a few of these could be strong to severe as they push to the south.  Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern.  We think best chances of thunderstorms across central IN will come during the mid to late afternoon hours into the early evening.

3p

6p

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11pThe air mass is loaded with moisture today.  In fact, precipitable water values will zoom to 2″+ this afternoon and suggest the threat of torrential rainfall with any storm that develops.

2Once to Tuesday, a MUCH cooler, drier air mass will arrive on the scene and help set up an unseasonably cool close to the month.

Fantastic Saturday!

Screen Shot 2016-06-25 at 8.58.02 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Saturday
  • Storms return Sunday
  • Much cooler next week

Couldn’t Ask For Better Weather…After a week filled with multiple days of rain and storms, we’re rewarded with simply phenomenal weather today!  Dry conditions and mostly sunny skies will combine with lower humidity and highs in the mid/ upper 80s to create a great day to be outdoors.

Humidity will return Sunday and a frontal boundary will press in during the afternoon.  Storm chances will be on the rise and a strong to severe storm can’t be ruled out.  While storm coverage won’t be as widespread as this past week, we’ll keep an eye on the radar tomorrow evening.

The big story next week is the MUCH cooler air mass that will blow into town.  A shower will accompany the unseasonably cool air Tuesday before we return to mostly dry conditions for the middle of the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″

Drier Air Works In Later This Evening; Eyeing A Cool Close To The Month…

Screen Shot 2016-06-23 at 7.59.42 AMHighlights:

  • Stormy times later today, especially south
  • Drier air mass works in
  • Storms return Sunday
  • Cooler to close the month

The Clean Up Begins…It was an active (and long) night across central IN as storms rumbled through.  Thankfully, the clean up will take place with dry conditions today for most of us.  For our southern viewers, we expect more widespread thunderstorms to fire during the afternoon and evening hours as a frontal boundary drops south.  We think most of central IN is dry today.

A drier, more refreshing air mass will filter into the region to close the week and head into the weekend.  Sunshine will prevail.

Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick for the second half of the weekend and storms will be associated with the moisture return.  Saturday is definitely the pick of the weekend!

Cooler times loom to wrap up the month…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Wednesday Morning Update…

The first of two waves of showers and thunderstorms is moving through the region this morning.  It’s the second wave of storms this evening/ tonight that has most of our attention.

The Storm Prediction Center has included more of central IN in a Moderate Risk of severe weather with the morning update.

IN_swody1All modes of severe weather are possible this evening and tonight, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds.  Localized flash flooding is also possible where storms train.

Specific timing remains in question and we’re still not confident in the way short-term model data is handling the situation.  Fine tuning will be required as we move into the afternoon hours.

Once we rid the morning storms, clearing should develop for the afternoon and help boost temperatures into the middle 80s.  Sunshine is a bad thing this afternoon.  It won’t take much to destabilize things and ignite the second round of storms to our northwest this evening (southern WI/ northern IL).  That second round of storms is the one expected to pack a punch for some as they race southeast.

Have a means to get the latest weather information later today and ensure your family’s severe weather plan is in place.

Much more later this afternoon!

Latest Thinking On What Will Be A Busy Wednesday…

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) maintains a significant severe weather risk across Indiana Wednesday.  A Slight risk encompasses the southern portions of the state, while an Enhanced risk takes up residence across central Indiana.  Finally, a Moderate risk is located across the northern third of the state.  Given the latest data, we wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of the Enhanced/ Moderate risk areas are upgraded to a rare High risk during the early Wednesday morning SPC update.  Regardless, we want to be very clear that Wednesday is a potentially dangerous weather day across Indiana.

2We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.

That said, there are unknowns.  How does morning convection impact our ability to heat/ destabilize things during the afternoon?  Are models underestimating the cold pool that will likely develop with the storms during the afternoon/ evening?  If so, a further southeast track and more robust situation could unfold (when compared to what forecast radar products suggest as of this post Tuesday evening).

While all modes of severe weather are certainly possible, for our immediate region, we’re particularly concerned for the threat of widespread damaging winds and flash flooding.  It wouldn’t surprise us if localized 3″+ amounts fall across portions of central and northern IN Wednesday.  Precipitable water values (PWATs) surging to 2″+ give increased confidence on localized flash flooding, especially considering the recent wet times.

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FlashFloodThreatThe first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.

1We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours.  We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.

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4Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours.  Timing will have to be fine tuned as Wednesday morning arrives.

To close, if you take anything from this post, please understand the importance of knowing your family’s severe weather safety plan.  Have a means of getting the latest watch and warning information from the National Weather Service and take any and all bulletins seriously.

Much more later!

Needed Breather Today Before Wednesday Severe…

Screen Shot 2016-06-21 at 7.10.47 AMHighlights:

  • Needed quiet time today
  • Stormy mid week; high-impact severe event possible
  • Drier to close the week

All Eyes On Wednesday…Today is an easy one.  Drier air will move into central parts of the state as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours, and we’ll also enjoy lots of sunshine.  It’ll feel fantastic out come evening!

All eyes will remain locked in on Wednesday as we monitor the prospects of potentially two rounds of thunderstorms.  Timing and track will have to be fine tuned, but we think the day offers up the possibility of morning thunderstorms, followed by a second round of storms during the afternoon and evening hours.  All modes of severe weather are in play, locally, Wednesday- particularly damaging wind.  Additionally, localized flash flooding will be likely where storms train.  It’ll be an important day to have a means to get the latest watches and warnings.  It wouldn’t be a bad idea to review your severe weather safety plan with your family at some point today.

After morning storms Thursday we should dry things out during the second half of the day and on into the first half of the weekend. Storm chances return Sunday-Monday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″ (locally heavier totals)

Scattered Severe Storms Tonight…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 11p.

Screen Shot 2016-06-20 at 4.49.21 PMDamaging straight line winds and large hail are of biggest concern as these scattered strong to severe storms continue to advance southeast.  This is all in association with a cold front moving into a very warm, moist, and unstable air mass.

Forecast radar this evening continues to show a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing into central IN during the evening hours.

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2In addition to the hail and wind threat, locally torrential downpours are a good bet as precipitable water values (PWATs) approach 2″+ in some areas.

3We’ll turn much quieter during the overnight as the cold front passes through the region.  A northwest wind shift will allow a drier air mass to slip into central IN come Tuesday morning.

A quite Tuesday is needed, as more active times loom come Wednesday…

Stormy At Times…

Screen Shot 2016-06-19 at 10.28.38 PMHighlights:

  • Front arrives late Monday
  • Strong storms; heavy rain threat Wednesday
  • Unsettled pattern

Busy Week Ahead…The overall pattern features the mean ridge position across the Four Corners region and sets up an active NW flow for our part of the country.  It’s a pattern we need to get used to as it’ll remain intact to close the month and open July.  Challenges are present in regards to specifics with timing and track of thunderstorm complexes we’ll deal with this week, particularly Wednesday.

In the shorter term, a frontal boundary will slip into central IN Monday night and a broken band of thunderstorms will accompany it.  A few storms could reach strong to severe levels Monday evening.

Attention will then shift to Wednesday.  Ingredients are coming together to present both a severe component (damaging wind the biggest threat) and localized flash flood threat.  We’ll update our latest thinking Monday morning.

As we progress into late week, additional shower and thunderstorm complexes are possible, but we stress timing issues abound.  It’ll be a warm and humid end to the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″ (locally heavier totals)