Mostly Dry And Cool; Looking Nice For The 4th!

Screen Shot 2015-07-02 at 7.32.56 AMHighlights:

  • Lots of clouds, but mostly dry and cooler than normal
  • Increasing sunshine for the holiday weekend
  • Scattered storm chances increase early next week

While we have considerable cloudiness around, rain chances across central IN will remain few and far between over the next several days (great news)!  Better chances of rain and storms will remain across southwestern portions of the state.

We’ll increase our sunshine going into the holiday weekend with only an isolated thunderstorm chance.  With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will also be on the rise, but still remain a couple degrees below normal.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected as we roll into early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″

Wednesday Night Rambles…

Just a few thoughts on this Wednesday night…

1.) June officially closed wetter than normal and near average temperature-wise…

   
 The Indianapolis National Weather Service posted this earlier today, further discussing the June rain situation. 

Honing in more specifically to the region shows some areas greater than 12″ of rain during the month of June, and more than 175-200% of normal. 

   
 
2.) Rain coverage over the next couple days will be widely scattered across central IN, but increase as you travel southwest. SW portions of the state will be most at risk for more widespread thunderstorms and heavy rains. 

3.) Incredibly interesting times loom out around mid month. The MJO is nearly off the charts in Phases 6-7 and would suggest cooler than normal times (overall) rule for the majority of July. 

   
   

4.) The CFSv2 remains consistent on the wetter than normal times continuing in July…

  
Much more in the AM…get some rest! 

Another Day Of Storms, But A Break Is Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-06-30 at 7.23.10 AMHighlights:

  • Scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon
  • Mostly dry mid week
  • Still think we’re mostly dry for the 4th
  • Scattered storms return early next week

A cold front will sweep through the area tonight and ahead of the boundary we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage by this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms will likely reach strong to severe levels, including damaging winds and large hail.  The good news is the front should be to our south by Wednesday morning, and as a result Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly dry and less humid.

Another disturbance will move through the area late week and we’ll increase coverage of thunderstorms Friday, but still think the holiday, itself, will be mostly rain-free across central IN.

Showers and thunderstorms (scattered variety) will return to our forecast early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″

July Outlook

With only a few days left of June, thoughts are turning to the 4th of July holiday, getting those summer vacations taken care of before school starts back, and pre season football practice starting up.

June will finish as one of the wettest on record, and coming on the heels of a very dry May, we’re actually right where we should be from a year-to-date precipitation perspective.

Here are some highlights we’re focusing in on that’ll impact our July weather:

  • Highly amplified MJO
  • Very wet June through the Mid West/ Ohio Valley
  • Warm water off the East Coast
  • Persistent western ridging

June will finish as a top 5-10 wettest June on record for many communities throughout our immediate region. With the wet conditions, it’s very tough to get any sort of long-lasting truly hot weather and while we’re certain to have plenty of warm, humid days during the upcoming four weeks (it is July, after all), we don’t anticipate any sort of significant heat wave. We fully expect being able to save on cooling costs when compared to normal.  We also note a highly amplified MJO, or Madden-Julian oscillation.

In July, phases 6-7 are cool signals for our region.

  
 We note sea surface temperatures are quite warm off the eastern seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. While this doesn’t have a direct impact on our weather here in regards to temperature, it can suggest some southeast and eastern ridging at times. When we look at the upper air pattern below, we note the region will likely be in between predominant ridge positions east and west for July. The end result for our particular part of the country would be a cooler and continued unsettled time of things for the better part of July.


*As a side note, this sort of water profile does “raise an eyebrow” for potential tropical activity in the Gulf and potentially along the east coast, and that’s something that we’ll have to keep a close eye on as we progress into the heart of the season.

We sort through a variety of data to help build our weekly (client based) and monthly upper air charts. While we can’t share all of those forecast models here directly with you (due to licensing), a combination of GFS ensemble data, CFSv2, and European weeklies have helped us build this upper air pattern for July.

July2015UAThis would provide continued cooler than normal times (particularly daytime highs, considering the wet ground) and a busy time tracking cold fronts and individual disturbances that will ignite frequent showers and thunderstorms.

“Average” July weather for IND includes mid 80s for highs, mid 60s for lows, and 4.5″ of rainfall.  In summary, we anticipate July 2015 to run 2-3 degrees below average and precipitation to run above normal by a couple inches.  We think we just keep on rolling down the tracks from the wet and active regime put into place in June.  Time will tell!

Sunny Sunday!

Screen Shot 2015-06-28 at 8.28.41 AMHighlights:

  • Cool and refreshing start
  • Sunny Sunday before clouds increase late
  • Storms rumble in tonight
  • Unsettled week

Sunday has dawned bright and sunny, along with an unseasonably cool feel (I’ll take this every day this time of the year)!  Most of today will feature lots of sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase this evening and thunderstorms will rumble into central and northern IN later tonight.

Unsettled weather will be the rule this week, including multiple disturbances tracking across the region.  These individual disturbances will enhance coverage of showers and thunderstorms from time to time this week.  While no all day rains are anticipated, the additional rain and storms certainly isn’t good news for the region.

We continue to keep a close eye on the all-important 4th of July forecast.  As of now, it appears as if we’ll see a cold front pass Friday night and provide drier weather for Saturday, but stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall forecast: 1.5″-2″

Breezy And Much Cooler Today; Beautiful Sunday On Tap…

Flooding is an issue across many central IN communities this morning. Particularly hard hit is the Muncie community. 

Zionsville’s Eagle Creek is also above flood stage this morning. 

  Thankfully, breezy north winds are ushering in a drier air mass that will be with us this weekend. A spotty sprinkle or shower will remain possible into the afternoon, but nothing significant. 

Sunday will feature lots of sunshine and cool air (the day will dawn in the lower to middle 50s)!
Highs today will only climb into the lower 70s, along with a gusty north wind above 20 MPH. 

  Enjoy the dry time while you can as rain and storms quickly return late Sunday night into early Monday. 
Forecast radar Monday morning around 8a:

  Overall as we look longer term, it’s a continued wet and cooler than average weather pattern. 
   
 

A combination of the GEM, GFS, and European forecast models prints out an average of 4″ of rain, locally, over the next (10) days. 

Longer term, there’s really no let up in sight with the wet and unseasonably cool pattern as we go through the first half of July…

Heavy Rain And Storms To Close The Work Week…

An area of low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley Friday and help rain overspread the region from west to east as the day progresses. Embedded thunderstorms can also be expected, including the threat of severe thunderstorms just to the south of the track of the low. As the surface low tracks northeast and strengthens, it’ll help pull much cooler and drier air into the region as we progress through the weekend, including a gusty wind Saturday. The pick of the weekend still looks to be Sunday- partly cloudy, unseasonably cool, and zero humidity. 

Here’s a look at what the surface map will look like early Friday morning. That area of low pressure entering into MO will be our heavy rain maker for the second half of Friday.

  

The area of low pressure will track ENE from southern/ central IN into eastern OH by Saturday morning and just off the eastern seaboard Sunday morning. 
   
 

Rain will begin to fall across portions of central IN as early as mid morning Friday, but it’s not until the afternoon and nighttime when the rain and storms will grow in coverage and intensity. Very heavy rains are a good bet with this set up and drastically cooler air waiting on the doorstep.

   
   

Severe weather will also be a concern just to the south of the low’s track. In particular we’re most concerned about the potential of severe across southern IL and IN.

  Rainfall totals will be impressive Friday, highlighted by a general swath of 1.5″-2″, but we caution that there will be locally heavier totals. Flash flooding may develop in some areas tomorrow evening. 
Hang in there, friends. A well-deserved dry period is just ahead, featured by decreasing rain chances Saturday (most of the day will be dry) and lots of sunshine Sunday. Both days will be significantly cooler compared to what we’ve been used to.

More Heavy Rain To Go Before Weekend Clearing…

Screen Shot 2015-06-25 at 7.53.15 AMHighlights:

  • Couple round of storms today
  • Heavy rain; flood threat Friday afternoon into early Saturday
  • Much cooler and drier this weekend

The morning is off to a wet start, including some embedded thunder and while we anticipate a break in the rain from late morning into the afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is possible by evening.  A slight risk of severe storms is in place across the southern half of the state.

Low pressure will move this way Friday and strengthen as it tracks into the eastern Lakes region.  This will spell very wet times around these parts from the second half of Friday into the wee morning hours Saturday.  Much cooler air and windy conditions will push into central IN Saturday on the backside of the low pressure system.  Before we enjoy those cooler conditions, heavy downpours are likely Friday afternoon into Friday night, including the potential of localized flooding.  If you live near a creek or stream, be sure to have your flood plan in place should rapid water rise occur.

As mentioned above, we’ll dry out rather rapidly Saturday afternoon and this will be followed by a beautiful Sunday.  How many times can we say late June starts in the lower to middle 50s, no humidity, lots of sunshine, and highs in the upper 70s?! :-)

We’re back to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances early next week, with continued cooler than average temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″-3″ (locally heavier totals)

Beautiful Day Before Thursday Storms; Much Cooler Weekend Ahead!

First things first and that’s today. Expect lots of sunshine and comfortable humidity levels, albeit a warm afternoon. Get outside and enjoy!

The upper air pattern for the past several days has included the “ring of fire” look, as individual disturbances track around the periphery of an upper ridge. That look will continue Thursday into Friday (image 1), but give way to a drastically different look over the weekend (image 2), as a trough and associated much cooler air develop over the east. 

   
 Before we get to enjoy those cooler weekend conditions (70s for highs; 50s for lows), we have more severe weather and heavy rain to deal with late tonight and Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center highlights far western areas for an enhanced/ slight risk of severe very late tonight. 

  
Forecast radar shows a complex of storms organizing over the upper Mid West during the overnight before progressing off to the southeast. The time stamps below are 2a, 7a, and 9a Thursday. Another round of storms are possible tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.

As has been the case with the past couple events, damaging straight line winds and localized flash flooding are of greatest concern.

   
   

Nice Weather Moves In For A Couple Days; Severe Storms Late Wednesday-Thursday…

Screen Shot 2015-06-23 at 7.41.11 AMHighlights:

  • Turning less humid with increasing sunshine this afternoon
  • Next round of strong to severe storms arrive late Wednesday night-Thursday
  • Cooler, drier weekend ahead

A frontal boundary will slip through the region today and provide an increasingly sunny sky this afternoon along with less humid conditions.  A disturbance may provide a shower or storm across far southwestern IN Wednesday, but we think the day will remain dry for the majority of the region.  The next round of strong to severe thunderstorms for our particular part of the region will come late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Similar to past thunderstorm complexes, damaging wind and localized flash flooding will be greatest concerns.  Scattered storms continue Friday, but the cold front should sweep the state Friday night and help provide a very nice weekend, including cooler and drier air.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″