Concern continues to grow in regards to a possible enhanced damaging wind threat with an evolving complex of storms Saturday night. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Storm Prediction Center upgrade the region to a Moderate Risk of severe weather to account for this in the near future.
Before hand, the first of possible (3) rounds of weekend storms will move in Saturday morning along a warm front. The latest short-term forecast radar products show this well. While locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is possible with this first round of storms, these will likely remain below severe limits.
Thereafter, most of Saturday will be nice, albeit much hotter and more humid. Attention will turn to our northwest late Saturday afternoon/ evening for what’s likely to be a rather explosive episode of strong to severe thunderstorms. The potential is there for this complex to organize into an intense bowing segment capable of producing widespread damaging winds across portions of the Ohio Valley. While we can’t pinpoint precise neighborhoods potentially impacted by this event, folks living across central Indiana should certainly keep abreast of forecasts Saturday. Furthermore, we’re also monitoring for the potential of localized flash flooding as some of our latest short-term forecast models suggest precipitable water values will exceed 2.5″ Saturday. This will help fuel torrential downpours and will aid in flood potential where training of storms occurs. Widespread 1″ rainfall is expected, with locally heavier totals between 2-3″.
Be sure and stay tuned for further updates from here and/ or your local favorite media.
We’re keeping a close eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest (across Iowa and Minnesota) this morning as these will continue to drop southeast with time today. We know we’ll see clouds increase locally from this complex of storms and some of the latest short-term model data brings in light rain during the afternoon as the complex drops southeast into IL and IN- though in a much weaker state. We’ll include mention of an afternoon shower due to this.
As we move into the weekend concern remains around the possibility of multiple thunderstorm complexes impacting our area. The Storm Prediction Center includes us in a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday and Sunday, including the chance of some storms producing a damaging wind and hail threat. We target Saturday morning and again Saturday night and Sunday for the best chances of thunderstorm complexes. Saturday night/ Sunday morning may provide the greatest risk of severe storms, and we’ll continue to monitor. We also note high precipitable water values present this weekend suggesting the threat of some localized flooding where storms train. Widespread 1″ rainfall can be expected this weekend, but we do caution some areas will see locally heavier totals in excess of 2″.
A much cooler, drier and fall-like feel is still slated to blow into town early next week, setting the stage for an incredible close to July and open to August!
After a pleasant Friday (sky conditions, temperatures, and humidity levels), we’ll begin to flip the script to a stormy one late Friday night and off and on over the weekend.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a large portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley for a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday.
Greatest severe concerns locally include damaging straight line winds and the possibility of large hail.
We target multiple rounds of weekend storms and while we’ll have to “sure up” timing of each complex we continue to focus in on late Friday night/ early Saturday and again Saturday night/ Sunday morning.
The latest high resolution NAM forecast radar product shows the potential storm complexes as we get closer and closer…
Again, we’ll fine tune timing as we move forward. This is all part of a major early season cold front and associated unseasonable chill early next week.
We’re wrapping up the work week with yet another push of unseasonably cool, dry air in place along with plentiful sunshine- another fall preview! The summer conditions we’ve enjoyed this year are more typical of those our neighbors across MI and WI expect. Humidity and warmth will build over the weekend and this will be coupled with a couple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move forward, but right now we’re focused on Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Sunday morning. The Storm Prediction Center outlines our region for a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday- highlighted by a damaging wind threat. Weekend rainfall potential sits in the half inch to one inch range, but we also want to be sure to point out there will be locally heavier totals where the stronger storms track. Once to next week, reinforcing cool, fall-ish, air will blow into town amidst gusty northerly winds.
The localized heavy storms this morning into the early afternoon were responsible for record rainfall today at IND. Officially 1.61″ was recorded- beating the old record daily value of 1.34″. After a dry couple weeks it was just what the doctor ordered!
As we write this, the cold front responsible for the torrential rain and vivid lightning earlier today is pressing south. Clearing is working in northwest to southeast, per the visible satellite image. Most will get into the clearing prior to sunset.
A much cooler and drier air mass is building in behind the frontal boundary and will result in a cooler than average close to the work week (what a wonderful summer pattern we’re in)! Note the 24 hour temperature change depicting the cooler air on the move southeast!
Warming can be expected this weekend (briefly) along with a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Best rain chances appear slated for Sunday. Weekend rainfall amounts may come close to 1″-1.25″ for a widespread portion of the forecast area. In fact, we should see more uniform moderate to heavy weekend rain totals when compared to that of today. We’ll keep a close eye on timing.
The bigger story will actually be the unseasonable chill that will once again have things feeling very fall-ish around these parts early next week. We forecast Indianapolis highs to only reach the upper 60s Monday- more than 15° below normal.
Showers and thunderstorms have been noisy for some this morning and included vivid lightning. As morning storms push east, a second round of thunderstorms can be expected as the actual cold front passes the region this afternoon. We’ll note showers and embedded storms redeveloping around the lunch time hour just north of the city and as these press southeast, a couple strong to severe storms are possible primarily south and southeast of Indianapolis. A much cooler, drier air mass will build in this evening and set the stage for a beautiful close to the work week, complete with unseasonably cool temperatures.
The weekend will provide a temporary moderation in temperatures, but we’ll remain busy tracking rain chances. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, a couple of disturbances will create a rather unsettled couple of days. We actually think Saturday into Sunday poses the best shot of widespread rains we’ve seen over the past couple weeks. That’s a good thing for a region now more than 2.30″ below normal for the month. As we move into next week, the big story will be temperatures that are very much like fall as we get set to wrap up July. Monday and Tuesday’s highs aren’t a typo- we’re forecasting upper 60s for highs.
We’re not excited about prospects of needed rainfall or widespread thunderstorm activity Wednesday. That said, the latest HRRR forecast radar, valid 5am Wednesday, suggests a broken line of thunderstorms may be impacting northern suburbs.
Meanwhile, the high resolution NAM forecast radar (valid the same time) isn’t as aggressive…
Regardless, we’re not looking at any sort of widespread, significant rain over the next 24 hours. The big weather story this time tomorrow night will be another punch of unseasonably cool air amidst a fresh northerly breeze.
We note renewed rain chances that could provide better overall coverage and moderate rain totals (0.50″-1″ for some) for the weekend.
Busy times continue in the good ole forecast office! This morning’s video talks about the one-two punch of cool air inbound to close July and looks at our increasingly-needed rain chances. Have a great day!
While we haven’t had very many true summer-like days over the past week, today certainly will feel very “summery!” Look for hazy sunshine, hot, and humid conditions. The Storm Prediction Center has placed northwest Indiana under a Slight Risk of severe weather late today. We’ll keep a close eye on area radars as we move into the nighttime hours as storms upstream will likely track southeast and arrive into central Indiana during the early morning hours Wednesday. These will likely be in a weaker state than what our neighbors to our northwest will experience, but still a gusty storm is possible. A second round of storms will likely fire up Wednesday afternoon, but we still think the redevelopment takes place south and east of the city Wednesday afternoon. While a local downpour is possible Wednesday, we’re not looking at any sort of significant rains on a widespread basis, unfortunately.
A much cooler, drier air mass will build in as we put a wrap on the work week, but we’ll eye an unsettled weekend pattern, including scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday. Another push of even cooler air will then blow into town early next week. It’ll feel very fall-like as we close out July and open August.
The overall weather pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days will be one that we’ve grown quite accustomed to. In the midst of a warmer and more humid couple days (back to seasonal and slightly above normal levels), confidence continues to grow on a pattern that will feature well below normal temperatures as we put a wrap on July.
Here are a couple of maps we created this evening depicting the upper air pattern week 1 and week 2. We’re eyeing a one-two punch of cool, fall-ish, air that will have things feeling “out of season” yet again.
A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’re not looking at heavy rain totals, but potential is there for a quick 0.25″-0.75″ as the front drops through. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible, especially south and east of the city Wednesday afternoon as this front passes.
Then we shift our eyes to an unsettled weekend. While it won’t rain the entire time, showers and thunderstorms will be in our forecast over the weekend in front of a reinforcing (stronger) blast of cool air that will blow in early next week. Again, rain potential isn’t terribly impressive, but we’ll take what we can get (things are turning mighty dry out there as we’re down more than 2″ MTD). The way we see things now would suggest 0.50″-1″ type rains over the weekend.
Once to next week “cool” is the word. Needless to say, we’re going to wrap up July with a feel that’s very much like autumn. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us if we set a couple records for the cool air next week. More on that and the rain chances ahead a bit later. Have a fantastic evening!