Better Coverage Of Storms Tuesday…

Screen Shot 2015-08-31 at 10.09.29 PMHighlights:

  • Better coverage of Tuesday storms
  • Splash and dash storms through the rest of the week
  • Hot pattern continues into the holiday weekend

An upper level disturbance will track overhead Tuesday and be responsible for helping kick off more widespread showers and thunderstorms.  These will be slow movers and capable of depositing hefty rainfall totals in localized areas.  This won’t be a “uniform” rain event by any stretch of the imagination and some locales may not even see a drop of rain.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish to “isolated” for mid and late week.  The big weather story will be the unseasonably warm regime leading into the holiday weekend.  Our next storm of note appears to be on the horizon around a week from today and deliver better rain and storm chances by next Tuesday, along with cooler air.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″ (locally heavier totals)

Monday Weather Notebook…

Cool August:

  
Despite the warm close to August, the month, as a whole, has been cooler than average across the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley.

Heat Expands:

  
Highs Sunday reached the lower and middle 90s along the Front Range. 90s were also common across the Arklatex region. 

Highs into the lower 90s will be possible across central IN later this week and for the Labor Day weekend as ridging expands.

  
Isolated Storms:

Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible as we progress through early and mid week, but many won’t receive any rain.

   
   
Forecast 10-day rainfall numbers are dry. See the GFS below, and most of that rainfall is projected with a cold front early next week. The GFS and European models pick up on the front and suggest much cooler air blows into town behind it.

   
 

Spotty Saturday Showers…

Screen Shot 2015-08-29 at 10.18.08 AMHighlights:

  • Most widespread rain across northern IN today
  • Isolated storm possible Sunday
  • Warm week upcoming

A weak frontal boundary remains draped to our west this morning and is serving as the focal point for showers from IL into northern IN.  As of now, most of central IN is simply dealing with mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions.  As we progress into the afternoon we’ll include the mention of scattered showers, but this won’t be a big deal and many will remain rain-free today.

Though isolated showers or storms are possible during the upcoming week, most will remain free of any rain.  Temperatures will be very summer-like- not a bad thing as we rumble towards the big Labor Day weekend and the kick-off to the college football season (hard to believe)!

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Yesterday was a fantastic day for a hot air ballon ride and the “@cryptics cam” caught just that!  Be sure to follow @cryptics on Twitter for awesome views of the sky and associated weather conditions here across central IN!

Welcome To The Weekend!

Quick post this morning (we’ll update our 7-day later this evening) to highlight our weekend forecast. 

We’ll begin to go through a transition this weekend from the unseasonably cool, dry, and pleasant air of the past several days to warmer and increasingly humid times. Riding will slowly expand to include all of the region by early next week. Hot, dry weather will be the result next week.

This weekend is the transition period and we’ll continue to mention isolated storm coverage Saturday and Sunday. Most will remain rain-free.

 

Isolated storm coverage can be expected across the Ohio Valley this weekend.

 
 

As we always say, don’t pay attention to the precise location of shower/ storm coverage on futurecast radar products, but you get an idea of the isolated nature of storms Saturday evening.

 
Weekend forecast:

  • Friday- Variably cloudy, 80°
  • Saturday- Isolated t-storm; 64°, 84°
  • Sunday- Isolated t-storm; 68°, 85°

Make it a great Friday and we’ll have a fresh 7-day later this evening!

Thursday Weather Notebook…

Cool and Dry:

   
 
We’re off to a cool start this morning with many reporting sites in the lower 50s. Note the cooler than normal air extends all the way to the Gulf Coast. Unlike the past couple days, today should feature mostly sunny skies. Enjoy a beautiful day!

Role Reversal:

   
 
Per the latest European ensemble mean above, the overall weather pattern will transition from a cool trough to a much warmer eastern ridge as we go into the weekend and into the week ahead.  This is a very warm look for Labor Day weekend.

The warm anomalies expand east to engulf much of the central, Lakes, and Ohio Valley next week.

  
Minimal Rain Chances:

We’ll maintain isolated coverage of storms in our forecast this weekend, but don’t get too excited about rain chances over the upcoming week. Most will remain dry Saturday and Sunday. 

  
Erika:

This morning TS Erika is looking a little better. Conditions only appear more favorable for further development in the coming days. All interests along the east coast of Florida up along the Carolinas should remain abreast of the latest conditions.

   
 
Water conditions are very warm and will promote strengthening in the coming days. Combine this with a favorable upper pattern and Erika should grow stronger, potentially rather rapidly, over the weekend.

   
 

Early Fall-Like Now, But Heat Builds…

Screen Shot 2015-08-26 at 11.04.49 PMHighlights:

  • Taste of early fall continues (for now)
  • Moisture slowly returns this weekend
  • Heat builds this weekend and grows hotter next week

After a couple days of variably cloudy skies, we should see more in the way of sunshine as we get set to wrap up the work week.  Conditions will remain unseasonably pleasant to be outdoors.

We’ll begin to transition to warmer and more humid times this weekend and with a disturbance nearby, an isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorm has to be included in our forecast.  Most should remain rain-free, however.

Overall dry and increasingly hot conditions will be the rule next week as ridging develops over the Great Lakes region.  Folks longing for more summer before fall truly sets in look to have their wish granted over the upcoming couple weeks ahead.

In the tropics, all eyes remain on Erika.  Though many questions remain, folks from the east coast of Florida up along the Southeast coast should remain abreast of the latest developments.  It’s likely Erika will go through a strengthening process over the next couple days.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Wednesday Weather Notebook….

Refreshing:

We’re off to another pleasantly cool start this morning. Also note the cooler air has been able to ooze into the southeast. 

  
Speaking of cool, it’s been a cooler than normal August for the central and Ohio Valley.

   
 
Periods of Low Clouds:

This morning’s satellite shows that we’ll continue to contend with low clouds moving from north to south at times today. All in all, we’ll officially go with “variably cloudy” skies for your Wednesday. Highs will remain well below average and in the low-mid 70s.

  
Overall Dry:

Our dry regime will continue this week, but we note a disturbance may combine with return moisture this weekend to squeeze out a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Sunday appears to be the best chance at getting wet as of now.

  
Heat Builds:

Warmth and humidity will build beginning this weekend, and particularly next week (we’re not finished with the 90s). Note the excellent agreement on long range ridging in the 8-10 day, per the GFS, European, and Canadian.

  
The GFS ensemble chart also shows the warm to hot anomalies over the upcoming couple weeks, after the current cool.

  

A Word On Early September…

First and foremost, I’ll apologize in advance for a lack of posts today and go ahead and apologize for the same tomorrow.  We’ve been incredibly busy over the past couple days and as a result posting has (and will be) out of schedule until mid week.

We wanted to briefly touch on early September with this post.  (This isn’t our September forecast, as that will be posted by the end of the week).

Speaking of September, we’ve always had September as a warmer than normal month.  Despite the warm September forecast, we did initially think we may have a 2-3 day period in early September that would feature yet another pop of cooler than normal air.  That’s speaking specifically at the period around 9.3-9.5 (give or take a day or two) and after a warmer than normal stretch this weekend into early next week.  (By the way, after a warm September, we think things turn cold rather fast in October and November, but that’s for another day).

The reasoning behind our thinking of a few days of cooler air in the 9.3-9.5 time frame was from the overall pattern that is leading to Typhoon Atsani recurving in the western north Pacific.  It’s important to note that it isn’t the recurving typhoon itself, but the overall pattern that provides a good hint at what’s ahead downstream 6-10 days later- be it ridging or the tendency for “troughiness.”

wp1715However, modeling has been trending towards Atsani stalling in the north Pacific and even some data likes to drift the system northwest over time through the upcoming weekend before significant weakening.

gefs_WP17_current

 

 

Atsani

The end result here?  Much less emphasis on cool and attention that turns to a rather lengthy period of warmer than normal temperatures through the month of September, including early September.

ecm_eps_z500a_conus_11Much more later!

Fall Feel Arrives Tonight…

Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 5.09.30 PMHighlights:

  • MUCH cooler than normal, fall feel blows into town
  • Dry week ahead
  • Moisture and warmth returns for the weekend

A cold front is on the doorstep this evening and will sweep through the region tonight.  Ahead of the front we’ll maintain mention of a shower or thunderstorm, but the band of storms coming through will be “broken” and everyone won’t get wet.  A MUCH cooler feel will blow into town tonight and remain intact through the balance of the work week ahead- a downright fall feel.  Winds will be breezy Monday afternoon out of the northwest.

Moisture and warmth will return as we head into the upcoming weekend along with an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chance.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Tonight’s “@cryptics Cam” captures storm clouds gathering to the west as a cold front moves into town.  This image was snapped around 4:15p Sunday evening.CNHqAMuUYAAqzB3

Saturday Morning: A Look Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date.  As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.

* Click on any image to enlarge.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August precipitation departure- month-to-date

August precipitation departure- month-to-date2015 to date has been cool central and east:2015 to date has been cool central and east:

2015 to date has been cool central and east:

4The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging.  It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO).  Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…

10Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east.  It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.

11As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening.  A few of these storms could reach strong levels.  The culprit?  Another strong late August cold front.  Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.

5Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.

6

7Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.

3We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.

9However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…

8Images credited to the following:

  • weatherbell.com
  • http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
  • http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#seasonMaps