Warmer Days Coming, But Cool Continues In The Short Term…

Screen Shot 2015-04-27 at 10.18.12 PMHighlights:

  • Cool weather continues through mid week
  • Upper low spawns shower chance Wednesday-Thursday
  • Dry, warmer close to the week
  • Much warmer and more humid early next week with storm chances

1After a cool open to the work week, the next couple of days will continue a similar theme.  We’ll enjoy more sunshine Tuesday when compared to Monday afternoon and temperatures should be a degree or two warmer.

Attention will shift to a potent upper level area of low pressure dropping across the region in the mid week time period.  This will do two things of note- provide reinforcing cool air and help create a scattered shower chance in the Wednesday-Thursday time period. (Scattered 0.10″ to 0.25″ rainfall amounts).

Weather conditions will begin to relax as we put a wrap on the work week.  Expect increasing sunshine and a much warmer pattern.

Warmth and humidity will continue to build early next week and help add fuel to storm potential.

2It’s a rather anomalous look to the 500mb (upper air pattern) charts for mid week, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.  A potent upper level low will dive southeast across the region and help spawn a shower chance, along with provide a much cooler feel of things Wednesday night into Thursday.  Surface low pressure will develop along the SE coast (in response to the UL energy diving southeast) that will provide a windy/ rainy end to the week across coastal regions down east.

3Warmer days are ahead, and more humid days, as well.  Our wind flow will back to the southwest late in the weekend and early next week.  Temperatures will respond, but so will humidity levels.  Throw in a little energy and you have the makings for stormy times to open up next week.

Warm May On The Way?

As our attention shifts to May, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the upcoming month. Due to licensing issues, we’re not allowed to share all of the forecast models that we look at here with you, but did want to give you an idea of some of the data we’re looking at.

The month is likely to open up with an anomalous pattern in place, including one that will support a rather significant coastal storm along the SE coast.  That said, as we progress a bit deeper into the month, guidance suggests a much warmer pattern awaits for those locally across the Ohio Valley and Mid West.

Using a combination of model guidance, here’s an idea of what we’re projecting the upper air pattern to look like as we open the month and progress into the middle of the month.

May1

May10th

As a whole, the majority of forecast data, including analogs of weak El Nino events of the past would imply a warmer than normal May is on the way.  Note the warmer anomalies across the mid South and Ohio Valley region.

Screen Shot 2015-04-26 at 9.23.21 AM

 

 

 

 

 

The CFSv2 also is in agreement with the warm idea for May.  Areas where cooler air will be more likely?  The SW and northern tier regions.


Precipitation for April has been running above normal across our region and across the southeast, as a whole.  This is a good sign if you don’t like exceptionally hot and dry summers.  Precipitation this time of year can set the tone for both as we move into the summer months ahead.

  

For the month of May, we anticipate near normal precipitation (right around 5″), but stress that precipitation isn’t always uniform this time of year as thunderstorms can dump locally heavier totals.

Wet Today; Much Better Sunday!

Screen Shot 2015-04-25 at 9.33.34 AMHighlights:

  • Wet, at times, today
  • Increasing Sunday sunshine
  • Small rain chance mid week
  • Warming trend late week

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANIThis morning’s water vapor loop, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows low pressure and the associated “big spin” over the mid section.  This will continue to slowly track east, southeast as we go through today and will provide the chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms at any point today into the evening hours.  Severe weather is possible across southern IN on south into KY and TN.  Heads up if your travels take you that direction today and have a way to get the latest weather information.  A much brighter Sunday is ahead and this will set the stage for a calmer week overall when compared to this past week.

hires_ref_indy_11Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows heavier and more widespread rains lifting into the region early this afternoon.  Today’s rainfall totals, however, don’t look as heavy as what was expected earlier this week.  Now we’re thinking most will fall in the 0.50″ range, with locally heavier totals under spots that see a thunderstorm.

Wet Saturday Coming…

After another frost and freeze across central Indiana this morning, attention begins to shift to wet times ahead Saturday.

Most of today will be rain-free and feature sunshine, but this morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows moisture beginning to increase.

  
A storm system will continue to organize over the Plains today before tracking east Saturday. This will spread another significant rain event into our region, and feature a severe weather outbreak across the TN Valley. Tomorrow will very likely be a busy severe weather day across the Volunteer state. 

 
Back here on the home front, expect rain to develop late tonight across western IN before spreading east. Certainly by Saturday morning, all of the region will be seeing rain. 

   

 An average of multiple computer models, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, (some we can’t show publicly due to licensing issues) would suggest anywhere from 1″-1.25″ of rain falls Saturday (with locally heavier totals). Sunday still looks like a much better (drier) day, and the pick of the weekend.

   

  

  

  

Another Frosty Night Coming…

Temperatures dipped to between 30°-32° for many central IN neighborhoods this morning. After sunshine and an unseasonably cool afternoon, temperatures will fall to similar levels tonight and Friday morning.

As such, the NWS has issued a *Freeze Warning* Friday morning. 

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-057-231615-
/O.NEW.KIND.FZ.W.0002.150424T0600Z-150424T1300Z/
/O.CON.KIND.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150423T1300Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-RUSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LAFAYETTE…FRANKFORT…KOKOMO…
CRAWFORDSVILLE…ANDERSON…MUNCIE…INDIANAPOLIS
401 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

…FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING…
…FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. A
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES: AROUND 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS: SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE KILLED IF NOT PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

 
The median date of the last 32° freeze in the spring is between mid and late April across the region. As you can see, nothing terribly unusual in regards to the absolute temperature, but the prolonged nature of the cool is.

   

Frosty Weather Turns Wet Saturday…

Screen Shot 2015-04-22 at 7.02.51 PMHighlights:

  • Frosty start Thursday and Friday for some
  • Wet, chilly, and raw Saturday
  • Brighter 2nd half of the weekend
  • Watching next week

4Tonight’s water vapor loop, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, is showing drier air making it’s way into our region.  This will set the stage for plentiful sunshine Thursday and Friday (well deserved, I might add :-)).  Winds will also begin to diminish this evening.  The combination of winds going calm and clearing skies will promote the chance of a frost and freeze across central IN tonight (and likely again tomorrow night) as reinforcing chilly air pours into the region.  Those with ag. interests be sure to take note.

Attention then turns to the weekend and we’ll label it as “half-n-half” for now.  A wet, chilly, and raw Saturday should give way to increasing sunshine Sunday.  Early to mid next week will provide a new set of challenges and we’re leaning towards the wetter solutions yet again.  Keep in mind the drier forecast model sets (GFS in particular) had to come around and play catch up to those leading the way Saturday (EC and GEM).  Expect changes and stay tuned.

1Forecast lows tonight, thanks to Weatherbell.com, are suggested to fall into the lower to middle 30s.  Should the wind go calm then expect a few readings around 30 degrees.  We’ll likely dip near these readings again Friday morning.

2After a dry close to the work week, moisture increases late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Expect a wet Saturday with early rainfall numbers projected in the 0.50″ to 1″ range.

5

 

3

Rain Early Wednesday Morning; Chilly Pattern Continues…

Screen Shot 2015-04-21 at 9.39.23 PMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably chilly air arrives behind a band of showers
  • Needed dry time Thursday-Friday, but frost potential looms
  • Wet, cold, and raw Saturday

It’s been a chilly and WINDY open to the week.  After a day of sunshine Tuesday, clouds thickened Tuesday evening and showers aren’t far behind.  We forecast a band of light to moderate rain to move north to south during the overnight period- particularly between 1a and 5a.  Unseasonably cool air will be the rule as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  A new storm system looks to deliver widespread rain Saturday.  Factor in temperatures running well below average and you have the makings for a rather nasty Saturday (a far cry from last Saturday’s sunshine and 80 degree warmth).

1A band of showers will move through central IN Wednesday morning and will be followed by another push of unseasonably cool air.  Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows overnight rain moving through the region.  Between one tenth and one quarter inch is a good bet.

3High resolution forecast models suggest many dip to around freezing Thursday and Friday morning.  Those with ag. interests, take note.

2Wet weather returns Saturday.  The European and Canadian forecast models led the way with this system and now the GFS (shown above) is playing catch up towards a cold and wet Saturday.

Wind Advisory In Effect 11a-8p

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-211530-
/O.CON.KIND.WI.Y.0002.150421T1500Z-150422T0000Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS
329 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM.

* WINDS: 40 TO 50 MPH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS

* IMPACTS: UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT. DRIVING WILL
  BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

Heading In The Wrong Direction…

Screen Shot 2015-04-20 at 3.32.01 PMHighlights:

  • Prolonged unseasonably cool weather
  • Band of showers late Tuesday night/ early Wednesday
  • Frost potential late week
  • Watching a storm system Friday night/ Saturday

SAT_ERG2_VIS_ANISurface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN.  Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing.  It’s a gusty day and that will continue.  Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers.  Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period.  The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday.  Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track.  Stay tuned.

1Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.

2The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend.  The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.

3Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends.  After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.

Unseasonably Cool Stretch…

Screen Shot 2015-04-19 at 9.10.05 PMHighlights:

  • More heavy rain and embedded thunder tonight
  • Unseasonably cool air this week
  • Frost and freeze threat

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANILow pressure over IN this evening will move north into the Great Lakes Monday and strengthen along the way.  A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and Monday morning and shut off the heavier rainfall.  Before that we have several hours of additional moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight.  Tomorrow will be a breezy and MUCH cooler day and help set the tone for the week as a whole.  We’ll watch for a weak disturbance to provide a shower chance mid week and keep a close eye on the weekend for the chances of rain.  Model data is in disagreement on Saturday as of now.

RAD_KIND_N0R_ANITonight’s radar, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, shows another slug of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunder moving in from the south.  Heavy downpours will make for excellent sleeping weather tonight.

Overall rain coverage will decrease significantly as we progress through Monday, but we can’t totally rule out the chance of afternoon showers redeveloping in “pop-corn” fashion as just enough sunshine may work on what will be a very unseasonably cool air mass moving in.

Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows this Monday afternoon.

1Unseasonably chilly air will be the rule this week- including 50s for highs most every day.  The only exception may be highs around 60 Tuesday and highs that may not make it out of the 40s Wednesday.  Frost and freeze conditions will be a concern on multiple nights/ mornings this week.

2 3After a warm month (to date) [image 1], Mother Nature will do what she does best- attempt to balance things out the upcoming 7-10 days [image 2].

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