Windy, Wet Sunday Ahead; Back To Winter Next Week…

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Wet And Windy Weekend…Some spots saw a touch of light freezing rain during the wee morning hours.  That’s now long gone as temperatures have risen into the upper 30s as of this forecast package.  Temperatures will continue to “warm” into the lower 50s today (today’s average high is 49) with scattered showers dotting the central Indiana landscape from time to time.

Much heavier and more widespread rainfall will lift north into the area Sunday afternoon and we forecast embedded thunderstorms along with strong and gusty winds for the second half of the weekend.  Widespread 1 to 1.5″ rainfall is likely Sunday with locally heavier totals.  As mentioned, the other big item of business will be the wind.  Winds will likely gust towards 50 MPH in spots as strengthening surface low pressure lifts north Sunday night into Monday.

Colder Air Returns…The period of milder air will be very brief as temperatures return back to well below normal values Monday afternoon and continue through the big Thanksgiving week ahead.  Some lingering wrap around moisture may lead to a few flurries or scattered snow showers Monday afternoon with falling temperatures and continued strong and gusty winds.

More Substantial Snow Maker For Thanksgiving?  Details remain sketchy, but computer modeling continues to suggest we need to keep on our toes for the potential of light accumulating snow Thanksgiving.  Snow or not, temperatures will be much colder than normal as the arctic hounds come calling yet again to set up a frigid Black Friday for shoppers.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″

Looking Closer At The Current SST Anomalies…

It may only be November, but we’ve been locked in the grips of Old Man Winter for the past few weeks (really since the early season snow back at Halloween).  While some “relaxation” will likely occur at a point during the first half of December, simply taking a look at the latest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies has to put a smile on the faces of those wanting cold and snowy weather for the upcoming winter.

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Let’s take a look at the highlighted features above, starting in the Atlantic and moving towards the Pacific.

1.) Warm water off the eastern seaboard: Suggests some ridging is likely from time to time that could force would-be east coast storms inland.  This is a factor in our forecasted above normal snowfall for the winter of 2014-2015.

2.) Modoki El Nino: A Modoki event, or central-based, El Nino is far different than an east-based El Nino event and the associated “blow torch” that can ensue for the winter months.  Computer modeling continues to suggest a weak to borderline moderate Modoki event is in the cards.  The sensible weather here in the states is vastly different from this type of event than many of the broad-brushed El Nino impact maps you may see on various media outlets.  This is a cold, snowy look for many central and east.

3.) North-central PAC Waters: Water temperature profiles in the north-central PAC region continues to be an item we at IndyWx.com lean heavier on in looking at our longer range forecast outlooks.  The ring of warmth around the colder north-central anomalies in the Pacific suggests plenty of Alaskan ridging ahead in the coming months.  Downstream impacts?  Central and eastern troughiness and associated colder than normal air.

As we state, there are MANY drivers that impact the weather, and this is simply taking the SST anomalies (1 ingredient) and dissecting the impact that they alone would have on the region.  There are many other factors that we look at as we forecast long range weather.  Taken verbatim, the SST anomalies suggest we’re on the right track suggesting a colder, snowier than normal winter looms…  By the way, if you haven’t seen our winter outlook that was posted back on 10.19.14, you can view it here.

Cold IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast…

Good morning and happy Friday! We’re dealing with more unseasonably cold weather today which will result in needing the heavier coats and winter attire tonight as you head off to your favorite football game.

While we forecast light freezing rain and freezing drizzle late tonight into early Saturday morning, most, if not all, of this should wait until after high school football tonight. Forecast radar shows light freezing rain moving in from the southwest around midnight.

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Kickoff temperatures will be in the middle to upper 20s.

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Your official IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast for Friday, November 21st:
Increasing afternoon and evening clouds with light freezing rain developing after midnight. Dry conditions can be expected for area football games. It’ll be cold with temperatures settling into the middle 20s by the end of the game. South winds can be expected 5-10 MPH.

For more on a variety of sports news and updates across the region, be sure to visit the Indiana Sports Report at IndySportsReport.com.

Thursday Night Rambles…

There’s a lot of weather to discuss over the upcoming 7-10 days, so in no particular order of most or least important, here’s what’s on our mind…

1.) Light freezing drizzle and freezing rain potential predawn Saturday.
As milder, more moist air streams north over lingering low level arctic air look for reports of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle early Saturday.

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2.) Windy, wet storm Sunday.
We still target Sunday for milder air, but it’ll come at a wet and windy cost. Indications continue to point towards 1″-1.5″ of rain and 40 MPH+ gusts. Heaviest rain falls late Sunday morning into the early afternoon.

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3.) Coldest November Since 1976.
Briefly milder air (closer to normal) will return Sunday. Talk about feeling good from the recent cold… Widespread coast-to-coast cold.

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4.) Water profile still looking good for a big winter.
Thinking longer term now, a look at the current water profile continues to reinforce our ideas on some drivers that should result in plenty of cold and snow, relative to average, across our portion of the country.

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5.) Cold week lining up.
Enjoy the briefly milder air Sunday as much colder temperatures look to carry us through the Thanksgiving week ahead.

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6.) Thanksgiving storm prospects.
Far too many issues to handle before hand and it’s also important to note the wide variance in details concerning a possible Thanksgiving storm. That said, a cold pattern will be in place which “ups the ante” on a potential wintry event should storminess be around.

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Cold Close To The Work Week; Eyeing Freezing Rain Late Friday Night…

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Very Cold Close To The Work Week…We’ve been cold for so long, it’s hard to remember that our average high this time of year is still around the 50 degree mark.  We won’t come anywhere close to that before Saturday.  Sunshine will dominate both today and Friday before giving way to increasingly cloudy skies late Friday.

Freezing Rain Potential; Wind And Storms Sunday…Light freezing rain is likely late Friday night into the wee morning hours Saturday.  Thankfully before we see widespread icing problems, temperatures should “warm” above freezing with a cloudy, breezy, and showery day on tap.

Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will rumble through the region Sunday, along with gusty south winds as a strong storm system lifts into the Great Lakes region.  Locally heavy rain can be expected with this event Sunday.

Colder For Thanksgiving Week; Eyeing Late Week Storm Potential…While we’ll enjoy one day above normal (Sunday) the overall weather pattern is one that’ll continue to result in a colder than normal regime over our part of the country.  A cold Thanksgiving week is shaping up with well below average temperatures.  Some scattered snow showers/ flurries are possible midweek, but it’s as we go into late next week/ weekend when a storm of “more importance” emerges.  Far too early for specifics on rain or snow, but stay tuned…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting

Mid Week Light Snow And Reinforcing Cold…

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Light Snow…Light snow will fall across central Indiana Wednesday, especially from Indianapolis and points north.  We’re not talking about significant accumulations, but a dusting to half an inch will be possible across the region Wednesday morning.  This is part of reinforcing cold and wind that will once again have things feeling frigid come Wednesday evening.  Southwest winds will shift around to the northwest come afternoon helping drive in the arctic air reinforcements.

Cold Close To The Work Week…We’re anticipating a dry close to the work week, but one that’s much colder than average.  In fact, high temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be significantly colder than average lows this time of year.  Brrrrrrr…. Keep the heavy winter gear handy.

Milder, But Wet And Windy…A big Mid West storm system will deliver a rainy and windy time of things Saturday into Monday.  As precipitation moves into the region, a wintry mix of sleet and/ or freezing rain will be possible during the onset early Saturday.  Otherwise, strong and gusty southerly winds will deliver a briefly milder regime come Sunday with periods of heavy rain.  Early indications suggest weekend rainfall totals reach 1″ to 1.5″.

Turning Colder Again…Once our storm system lifts away from the region, colder than normal air will quickly come rushing back into central Indiana to open up the short Thanksgiving week.  More details later in regards to a potential storm system brewing closer to Thanksgiving, itself…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00 – 1.50″

Weekly Outlook: Amazingly Cold And Wintry Pattern

November continues to grow increasingly colder than average with each passing day. The prolonged nature of the severe cold is astounding for early and mid November. Average low temperatures this time of year are in the middle 30s. Tuesday’s high likely will be 15° below the average low. Amazing.

A byproduct of the cold pattern is a drier than normal one, as well.

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Equally as impressive is that 50% of the country was enjoying a beautiful snowpack as of Monday morning.

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A frigid start to Tuesday is on deck with record, or near record, temperatures (low and low maximum in jeopardy). Many will start the day in the single digits.

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Wind chill values will plummet to as low as 10° below zero Tuesday morning.

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Reinforcing cold, arctic, air arrives Wednesday with light snow (dusting to 1″ type accumulation). The NAM and GFS see the mid week light snow potential.

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The pattern will moderate going into the weekend as a big Mid West storm ramps up. As precipitation attacks lingering low level cold air, a wintry mix is possible late Friday night or early Saturday before quickly changing to rain as southerly winds help us warm.

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Couple of notes about the weekend into early next week: Temperatures will moderate to seasonal and above normal levels for a couple of days. Also, rainfall amounts of 1″-1.5″ are possible as an early estimate. As of now, most of this looks to fall Sunday.

All of that said, look at the mid range pattern… Yes, once our Mid West storm rumbles into the Lakes, a cold trough is set to return. Will it feature the record type cold we’re currently seeing? Most likely no. That said, a solidly colder than normal regime will likely develop for the majority of Thanksgiving week.

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Snow Total Catch Up And More On The Bitter Air Inbound…

Snowfall totals through this morning are as follows:

Whitestown: 3″
Zionsville: 3″
Muncie: 3″
Bloomington: 2″
Martinsville: 3.2″
Castleton: 3″
Indianapolis: 2.5″

All in all, this first storm behaved as expected and matched our snowfall forecast to a tee:

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Our attention now shifts to bitter cold air, strong winds, and locally heavy snow bursts today into mid week.

An arctic front will move through the region later today and be responsible for falling temperatures, strong and gusty northwest winds, and scattered snow showers and localized, quick-hitting, snow bursts. We’re concerned the combination of all the factors could lead to treacherous travel this evening. It’s not so much the amount of snow that will fall, but the plummeting temperatures and strong winds (blowing snow).

Temperatures will fall into the teens for the drive home (before tanking to near record levels tonight between 5°-10° above zero).

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Forecast radar is picking up on the snow showers and locally heavy snow bursts this afternoon and tonight.

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Wind chill values will fall to 5°-10° below zero Tuesday morning.

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By the way, we aren’t done with the snow this week. “Spokes” of upper level energy will dive southeast with reinforcing cold mid week to create more snow showers.

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First Winter Storm Of The Season…

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First Plowable Snow Of The Season…It may only be mid November, but we’re already talking about our first plowable snow of the season.  Let’s get right to the bullet point details of what you need to know:

  • Snow arrives into central Indiana around 2 o’clock
  • Snow increases in intensity around sunset into the mid evening hours; periodically reaching moderate to heavy levels
  • Uniform 2-4″ snow event tonight for central Indiana, but localized banding features could result in a 5″ report

Our snowfall forecast first issued Saturday morning remains.  The falling snow should be east of the region before the morning commute gets underway Monday, but the damage will already be done.  Our snow removal companies will be hard at work across the region.  The big story Monday will be fresh arctic air invading through the day along with gusty winds and renewed snow showers developing Monday night.

Periodic Snow Showers; Reinforcing Arctic Air…If you haven’t realized another wintry week was upon us, now you will!  Individual disturbances will move southeast into mid week helping to serve as arctic air reinforcements and snow shower producers.  Another important note- wind chill values will be below zero Tuesday morning.  Plan on severe cold.

Late Week Storm System…The details are “murky,” but a storm system will attack the cold air late week with a wintry mix of rain and snow.  More around this in the days ahead.  For now, the focus remains on tonight’s snow event.

Upcoming  7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 5″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″
Our snowfall forecast remains unchanged from Saturday morning, but we'll include mention of isolated 5" reports across central Indiana to account for banding potential.

Our snowfall forecast remains unchanged from Saturday morning, but we’ll include mention of isolated 5″ reports across central Indiana to account for banding potential.

Snow Chances And Gearing Up For Even Colder Air…

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Two Weekend Snow Events…The morning is off to a sunny, frosty, and frigid start with middle teens for many central Indiana communities.  Mid and high level cloudiness will stream into the region through the afternoon before lowering and thickening towards evening.  An area of light snow will then overspread central Indiana towards 6-7 o’clock.  This won’t be a huge snow event, but a dusting to less than 1″ will fall, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor.  This will be just enough to make for slick travel in places as you head out to church Sunday morning.

The second snow maker will be the more significant one.  Upper level energy will dive south out of the Plains states tonight and help ignite surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday morning.  This area of low pressure will then lift northeast and track up along the western slope of the Appalachians into Monday morning.  This will spread accumulating snows northeast into our region as early as Sunday evening, continuing overnight into the wee morning hours Monday.  Our initial snowfall forecast (posted below) places most of central Indiana in a 2-4″ swath of snow from this event, but we caution this still isn’t etched in stone.

Fresh arctic air will pour into the Mid West and Ohio Valley region Monday evening into Tuesday…  That Tuesday morning expected low isn’t a typo, BTW :-) .

Bitter Feel And Periods Of Snow Showers…Waves of upper level energy will dive southeast and serve to provide two things: reinforce the cold/ arctic air and provide periods of snow showers.  Gusty northwest winds will also accompany the waves of cold air.  All-in-all, plan on a wintry week ahead!

Questions Concerning Late Next Week…Forecast models are struggling on the details, but we still think a storm system will deliver the chance of snow or a wintry mix of rain and snow late next week.  Details to come in the days ahead.

Snowfall Forecast Sunday evening into Monday morning

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Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 5″