• Active Pattern Ramping Up; Monitoring Multiple Storm Chances…

    Highlights:

    • Spring-like air continues
    • Severe t-storm potential Friday PM
    • Much colder weekend
    • Another round of strong-severe storms next week?

    Buckle Up For A Wild Ride…Morning fog (some very dense, especially north of the city) will burn off and give way to increasing sunshine today, along with unseasonably warm temperatures.  In fact, we’ll be near-record territory (Indy’s record high today is 70° and we forecast to tie that record this afternoon).  We’ll remain near record territory over the next couple of days, but our attention will, unfortunately, have to shift from the record warmth to strong-severe thunderstorm potential.

    Most of Thursday will be dry, but a few scattered showers will likely dot the central IN landscape by the evening hours.  Similar to Thursday, most of the day Friday will also be dry.  It’s not until we head into Friday evening and night that we’re concerned for thunderstorms tracking through the state.  A few of these storms will likely reach severe levels.  Large hail and damaging winds are of greatest concern with the severe thunderstorms that develop.  The cold front will sweep the state Friday night and a midnight high Saturday morning in the upper 40s will crash (most of the daytime will feature temperatures in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s) and wind-whipped snow flurries can be expected.

    A weak weather system is still expected late Sunday and could feature a light rain and snow mix (not a big deal).  What will be a bigger deal is a much stronger storm system rolling through the Mid West early next week.  Unfortunately, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday…

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace
    • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″


  • Agri-Worries: Reason To Be Concerned…

    February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).

    The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth.  By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February.  That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation.  Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms).  Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.

    That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt.  Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.”  With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.

    Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze.  Still have a long way to go, friends…


  • Incredible February Warmth Continues Until This Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Unseasonably warm conditions continue
    • Strong-severe t-storm potential Friday PM
    • Much colder this weekend

    Spring-Like Weather Continues…A weak weather system will create the chance of showers into this afternoon, but many more dry hours can be expected than wet.  In fact, some neighborhoods won’t even see a drop of rain today.  The bigger news?  A continuation of unseasonably warm, April-like, temperatures.  In fact, we’ll turn even warmer for the second half of the work week and get back to dry time Wednesday and most of Thursday.

    A strong cold front will sweep through the state Friday night.  Ahead of this front, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Friday afternoon into the evening hours.  Some of these storms may become strong to severe and include damaging straight line winds and hail.

    We’ll then turn much colder Friday night and that will set the stage for a more seasonable weekend.  Snow flurries may fly in the blustery northwest flow Saturday.  A fast-moving weather maker will then spread a mixture of rain and wet snow across the state Sunday evening into early Monday.  Confidence is low on timing of this late weekend system and fine tuning will be required moving forward.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″


  • Spring-Like Now, But Winter Returns This Weekend…

    Highlights:

    • Dense morning fog
    • Tuesday showers
    • Severe potential Friday
    • Much colder this weekend

    Two Seasons This Week…We’re starting the work week with dense fog across central Indiana.  This will eventually burn off to a variably cloudy sky by afternoon, along with continued unseasonably warm temperatures.

    A weak weather system will press through the state Tuesday and this will help lead to a period of showers Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours.  This won’t be a big event (most neighborhoods should accumulate between 0.10″-0.25″ of rain), but plan to pack the rain gear as you leave the house Tuesday morning.

    A much stronger storm system will impact the region Thursday into Friday.  As strong low pressure passes by to our northwest it’ll help pull anomalously warm, moist air northward Friday.  Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along the strong cold front that will pass late Friday.  While we still have time to “fine tune” details on timing, early thinking would place greatest emphasis on large hail and damaging wind potential.  Stay tuned.

    Much colder air will hit with authority Friday night and set-up a wintry weekend.  The spring-like feel of this past weekend will be all but a distant memory and flurries may fly Saturday morning in the colder, blustery air.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall:  Trace
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Sunday Morning Rambles: Focusing On Severe Weather…

    Low clouds and areas of fog will be slow to burn off this morning, but the sunshine should eventually return later this afternoon and evening, providing a phenomenal close to the weekend.

    Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average.  We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.

    A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on.  That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

    The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week.  We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook.  It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.

    We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday.  Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.

    Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period.  As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2.  This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.


  • Awesome Weekend Weather Continues; Changes Ahead Next Week…

    Highlights:

    • Spring-like weather rolls along
    • Shower chances return
    • Strong t-storm potential
    • Different tune next weekend

    Is This February?  Our stretch of unseasonably pleasant, spring-like, weather will continue for the second half of the weekend and as we progress into the early stages of the work week.  Find a way to get outside the next couple of days (that’s an order ;-)).

    A weak weather system will scoot through here Tuesday and serve to increase our cloud cover, along with a few scattered showers.  Dry conditions return Wednesday, but by then all eyes will be on an approaching stronger storm system that will provide increased shower coverage by Thursday and strong to severe thunderstorm potential Friday.  Speaking of severe weather, we think this spring will offer up a busy severe weather season.  We’ll have additional updates on the severe potential as time gets closer, but just keep a mental note Friday could be a busy weather day.

    We’ll abruptly transition back to winter Friday night and the air will grow cold enough a week from today to allow scattered snow showers to fly in a gusty northwesterly breeze next Saturday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
    • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″


  • Thoughts Shift Towards Severe Weather Season…

    With the unseasonable warmth this week, our thoughts begin to shift to the coming spring months ahead.  Of course with spring comes the potential of storms- some of which include severe weather outbreaks.

    Already, 2017 has wasted no time in the tornado department, year-to-date- more than double the (10) year average across the United States.

    The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north.  As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.

    The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.

    As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west.  The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast).  Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.

    Much more later as spring evolves.


  • Extended Dry Period; Spring-Like Weekend Ahead…

    Highlights:

    • Chilly today
    • Spring-like weekend
    • Extended dry period

    Beautiful Weather…There’s no reason to waste many pixels on this forecast.  Despite a slight “speed bump” today (temperatures will top out a few degrees below normal), the balance of this 7-day forecast period is one that will feature unseasonably pleasant (and quiet) weather.  We’ll note periods of clouds today as weak cold air advection kicks in, along with a gusty northerly breeze this afternoon.

    After Thursday morning, it’s off to the races as an extended period of sunshine will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Temperatures will reach 60 Friday, mid/ upper 60s this weekend, and near 70 Monday.

    The next weather item of note will be increasing clouds late Tuesday, followed by showers Wednesday.

    Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

    • Snowfall: 0.00″
    • Rainfall: 0.00″