The Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

It simply doesn’t get much better than this!  Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across central Indiana this afternoon…  If you aren’t outside now, we are making it mandatory to get outside upon reading this!  :-)  Enjoy, as the ups and downs of autumn will send us in an opposite direction late in the upcoming week.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the evolution of things heading into next weekend.  While there are still a couple of important differences between the GFS and European, we’re growing increasingly confident on a much colder feel next weekend.

Note the latest GFS operational run stacked atop individual ensemble members.  Needless to say, there’s ensemble support and leads to a higher confidence forecast in the mid range of a deep trough carving itself out across the Mid West and East.  Unseasonably cold air would be associated with this.

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Meanwhile, the European model is more extreme, suggesting a cut off feature develops across the southeast before helping spawn a Nor Easter and leading to high ground accumulating snows from the southern Appalachians northeast along the spine of the mountains.

Again, there’s ensemble support (left) to go with the operational run (right).

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Whether or not we get some sort of cut off low pressure system to really dig in and help generate high ground snow is up for debate and will be the focal point for many for the upcoming week.

Back here on the home front we’re becoming increasingly confident on the first push of wintry type air here next weekend and timing will have to be fine tuned as we move forward, including the all-important Halloween forecast.  The type air mass moving in will most likely put an end to the growing season across these parts as it’s likely capable of producing multiple below freezing nights.

Much more in the days ahead!  In the meantime, enjoy what we have in front of us now!

Beautiful Weekend, But Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

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Beautiful Autumn Weekend…Early morning clouds quickly burned off and gave way towards a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky by late morning.  That sunny theme will remain as we roll into the afternoon and the second half of the weekend, as well.  Highs this afternoon will reach into the lower 70s before a push of slightly cooler air moves in tonight that will keep us in the 60s for highs Sunday.

Warm Open To The Work Week Before Big Changes…We’ll open up our new work week with lots of sunshine and unseasonably warm (almost balmy) temperatures.  We think highs Monday afternoon make it all the way into the middle 70s.

A strong cold front has aim on the area Tuesday and will include showers and thunderstorms as the front passes.  Much cooler air will flow into the area behind the boundary for mid week.

As we get into the latter portion of the week, forecast models have a couple of different scenarios, but the common theme is a chilly one.  Whether or not the chilly air includes precipitation is yet to be determined, but we’re siding more towards the European solution for now and building light rain into our Halloween forecast as unseasonably cold air pours south.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast Highlighted By Dry, Cool Evening…

Rain showers are moving into central Indiana this morning, but rainfall amounts should be light. Some folks won’t get wet at all.

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Good news is that these showers will move out of the region and we’ll introduce a dry regime by the afternoon and evening.

Forecast radar at 7pm shows a rain-free Indiana.

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Temperatures will slowly fall into the lower and middle 50s by the 2nd half.

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Your official IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast for Friday, October 24th:

Dry and pleasant with temperatures around 60° at kick off, falling into the lower and middle 50s by the end of the game. Light southwest winds generally 5 MPH, or less. Enjoy your game!

Another Frosty Start…

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Bundle Up…It’s another chilly and frosty start to the day and patchy fog has developed across portions of central Indiana this morning.  Plan to leave a little extra time on your way to work or school to account for this.  Otherwise, the first half of the day will feature bright sunshine (fog should burn off quickly) before clouds begin to increase this afternoon and evening.

More Bark Than Bite…A couple waves of very light precipitation will move through central Indiana Friday morning and again Saturday morning.  With a very dry air mass in place, this should be scattered and very light in nature (some won’t get wet at all).  Temperatures will be very mild Saturday before a brief Sunday “speed bump,” as a frontal boundary moves through.

Warm Open To The Work Week…A pronounced southwesterly flow will be in place ahead of our next cold front that appears to have a Tuesday focus.  Monday and Tuesday will feature unseasonably warm temperatures.  We’ll note our best chance of widespread measurable rain of the forecast period on Tuesday.  Cooler air will flow back into the area on gusty northwest winds Tuesday night.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Frosty Now, But A Taste Of Indian Summer Coming…

Our immediate focus has to do with another frosty morning Thursday (many will have low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s come daybreak with plenty of frost).  That said, changes are coming as we transition from eastern troughiness to brief ridging come early week.

We’ll replace the frosty 30s with a couple days of highs in the lower to middle 70s early next week.

Upper air pattern centered on next Monday:

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We’ll flirt with 70 degrees Saturday before a Sunday “speed bump” (highs in the lower 60s), but highs Monday and Tuesday will likely be around, or above, the 70 degree mark with a breezy southwest flow.

Forecast models differ on the next round of rain, but we’ll highlight the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame for our next best chance of widespread rains and embedded thunder along with a cool down for mid and late week.

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Frost On The Pumpkin…

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Frosty…It’s the coldest morning for most since last May.  Frost is rather widespread here at IndyWx.com HQ this morning (southern Boone county).  Thankfully, brilliant mid-Autumn sunshine will help temperatures warm into the upper 50s this afternoon (still roughly 5 degrees below average).  We’ll do it all again tonight as lows dip into the middle to upper 30s for many outlying communities.

Weak Weather System…First, most of, if not all Thursday will be dry with increasing late day clouds.  A couple very light showers will move across central Indiana late Thursday night into early Friday.  This won’t be a big deal in the least and we’ll quickly get back to dry weather.

Nice Weekend…A nice and dry weekend awaits with moderating temperatures.  All-in-all, it’ll be a beautiful autumn weekend.

Warmer Ahead Of The Next Storm System…While temperatures will moderate into the lower 70s early next week, it’ll come at a cost and that will be our next chance of widespread rain and embedded storms.  We’ll get back to cooler air by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sends in this brilliant shot of fall color that’s reaching peak across Zionsville.  Flat out awesome, John!  Thank you!

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Weekly Outlook: Generally Pleasant Autumn Weather…

October (month to date) is running slightly wetter than normal. Through the 21st, rainfall is running 0.52″ above normal at IND.

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A reflection of cooler than normal air remains centered over the Great Lakes and upper Mid West.

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In the near term, frosty mornings highlight the weather headlines. We forecast mid to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings across many central Indiana neighborhoods, including isolated lower 30s reports. Nothing like a frosty, crisp October morning…

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The pattern will transition from cooler than normal this week to briefly warmer than normal for the second half of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will flirt with 70° early week, but we caution the ridging won’t hold.

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Rainfall amounts through the upcoming (7) days will be generally light. Note the GFS and Canadian forecast less than 0.25″ out through the upcoming (7) day period.

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A weak boundary will move through the region late Thursday into early Friday with light showers possible.

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Another (more significant) storm system will pass late day 7. Cooler air will quickly flow in behind this system. Early precipitation estimates range from light (0.25″ range GFS) to moderate (0.70″ range Euro).

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Frosty Mornings Ahead…

While some communities experienced widespread frost Sunday morning, most folks around central Indiana escaped the frosty threat, as clouds hung tough around the immediate area.

Wednesday and Thursday mornings will provide another chance of frost across more widespread portions of the region.  We forecast 37 degrees Wednesday morning officially at IND and 38 degrees Thursday morning.  That said, outlying communities can expect to fall into the lower to middle 30s both mornings.  We suggest to plan on more widespread frosty conditions the next couple of mornings compared to that of Sunday morning when an official Frost Advisory was in effect.

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Light Showers To Begin The Week Otherwise Cool And Dry…

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Reinforcing Cool Air…After a cool weekend, a reinforcing shot of unseasonably chilly air will move into the region later this evening.  A couple sprinkles or light showers are possible both today and Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will remain light for those that do see a shower.  The bigger story will be the cool air as highs Tuesday only top out in the lower to middle 50s.  Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings as skies clear and lows dip into the 30s.

Extended Stretch Of Dry Weather…High pressure will supply lots of sunshine and an extended stretch of dry weather Tuesday night through the weekend.  Additionally, after an unseasonably chill start to the period, temperatures will moderate, reaching above normal levels over the weekend.  All-in-all, a very pleasant weekend appears to be waiting on deck.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Interested in private weather consulting?  E-mail us at bill@indywx.com.

This was the peak weekend for fall foliage across many central Indiana communities.  Lots of vibrant colors remain and with an overall dry, cool week upcoming we should be able to hold onto that color for a while longer.  John Salewicz sent in this beautiful photo taken in Zionsville over the weekend showcasing the color.  Thanks, John!

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IndySportsReport.com Colts Forecast

Colts v. Bengals Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

10.19.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  After a gloomy Saturday, today will feature bright sunshine and a continuation of cooler than average autumn air.  Needless to say plan on packing the jackets and sweaters for that important tailgate.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long!

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Partly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
Temp: 45-50 Temp: 52 Temp:  57
Wind:  W 5 MPH Wind: SW 5-10 MPH Wind:  SW 5-10 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.10”