Good morning and happy Thursday! This will be a quick post this morning before a more extensive update and 7-day outlook later this evening.
The SPC highlights our region for a slight risk of severe weather today. The primary threats are damaging winds and hail. The “ring of fire” pattern continues into the weekend with multiple thunderstorm complexes to track.
Forecast radar this morning:
Forecast radar Friday morning:
Forecast radar Friday night/ Saturday morning:
Each round of storms will have the potential of strong to severe storms embedded within the complex and also be plenty capable of producing lots of cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rain. It’ll be common to hear reports of rainfall amounts of 1″, or more, within less than an hour. Individual timing around storm complexes will have to be handled as they come.
The other big story remains the heat. Note temperatures well above normal over the Ohio Valley region this weekend:
This follows our upper air pattern centered on 8/22-8/24 very nicely:
We forecast the following for weekend highs:
The combination of passing storms and the setting sun Tuesday evening provided sun incredible rainbows. Thanks to John Feister for sharing this photo taken near Whitestown.
John Salewicz snapped this Zionsville rainbow. Thanks, John!
Thanks to Brent Harris for this image out of Madison County.
The “ring of fire” pattern continues for the next 5-7 days and means we’ll have to remain on our toes as storms track around the periphery of an expanding heat dome. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be the result and the Weather Prediction Center highlights this well.
After a mostly dry Wednesday, heavy rain and storms are a good bet Thursday morning.
The hottest air of the year is sitting on deck for the weekend. In fact, we forecast highs in the lower to middle 90s Friday into early next week. Quite the impressive late summer heat wave awaits on deck. Heat indices will reach 100° + this weekend.
The tropics will also be cranking up over the next couple weeks. The chance is there for some sort of Gulf of Mexico mischief next week. (Far too early for any sort of details on strength, timing, or track).
PS: We continue to experience technical issues with a slight lag on audio/ video. We are aware of the situation and will be transferring to a new program in the near future. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
A look at some of the latest data hot off the press suggests we remain under fire for the potential of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening hours. Initial activity could fire as early as 3-4 o’clock across western sections. The latest HRRR forecast radar (valid at 4pm) shows an advancing line of strong, and possibly severe, storms pushing east.
Again, the primary threat is damaging wind, but a couple hail reports will also be possible.
As of the 12 o’clock hour, a complex of thunderstorms sits to our west across western/ central portions of Illinois. We’ll keep a close eye on this complex as it continues pushing east and likely intensifies in a hot, humid, and unstable air mass over the next few hours. Please plan a way to keep abreast of the latest radar and local media this afternoon and evening as storms move in.
The day is dawning bright with lots of sunshine. Patchy fog is being reported in spots, but isn’t as widespread as Monday morning. The majority of today will be dry, hot, and humid, but we continue to eye the evening and nighttime hours for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center highlights the region for a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds.
We bracket the hours of 4pm to 11pm for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana.
Forecast radar shows a line of storms developing across northwestern portions of the state before racing south and east through the evening and nighttime hours. Embedded cells within this line could reach severe levels. Again, damaging winds are of greatest concern.
Precipitable water values reach greater than 2″ in spots tonight, suggesting locally heavy rain will be possible within any storm that develops.
Remain weather-aware today and pay attention to your favorite media/ weather source as new data rolls in through the day.
Mostly Dry Start To The Work Week…Dense fog is around in spots this morning, particularly northwest of the city. Otherwise, a broad circulation around a departing area of low pressure may help spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm across east-central parts of the state this afternoon. The key word here is “isolated,” however, and most will remain rain-free today.
Better Rain/ Storm Chances…Details on timing are still murky, but we forecast better rain and storm chances Tuesday afternoon on through the mid week period. With all of the moisture in the air, locally heavy downpours can be expected. The nature of the showers and thunderstorms will be what you would expect this time of year- scattered, meaning not everyone will see beneficial rains.
Serious Heat And Humidity…Temperatures will reach the hottest levels of the summer late week into the weekend. Plenty of humidity will be in place as well and conditions may warrant watches, warnings, or advisories for the heat and humidity Friday-Sunday. In a summer that’s spoiled many of us with unseasonably cool conditions, we’ll make up for at least a portion of lost time over the upcoming weekend.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
While today will be mostly dry, better chances of scattered thunderstorms lie ahead Tuesday.
More Like Summer…The upper air pattern this week will be unlike what we’ve seen the majority of the summer. A ridge of high pressure will expand across the southeast region and build northwest. Meanwhile, a trough and associated cooler air mass will impact the northern Rockies and northwest region.
Low pressure will dominate our sensible weather today with lots of clouds and widespread rain downstate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact central portions of the state. As we progress into the work week, we’ll have to remain on our toes for thunderstorm complexes that may ride the periphery of the expanding hot dome to our south. This will keep things rather active and unsettled through the forecast period.
The other topic of interest will be our temperatures. Whether we crack the official 90 degree mark or not is yet to be seen, but it’ll certainly feel very hot and humid around these parts through the week, especially the back half of the week. ”Air you can wear” will be the weather theme this week.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Cool shifts northwest this week while heat builds across the south and central.
Happy Saturday afternoon to all! This evening’s video covers what continues to look like an active weather pattern, including multiple rain chances ahead for the upcoming week. We also discuss the upper air pattern and the expanding area of heat.
With each passing day our thoughts turn more and more towards the upcoming busy fall and winter months ahead. Among the vast array of data to sort through, we wanted to show you the latest JAMSTEC (Japan Agency For Marine-Earth-Science And Technology) take on the upcoming fall and winter. Admittedly, we’re still a ways off from being able to tell you with any sort of certainty what the upcoming winter holds in store, as far as the “concrete details” go. That said, thinking, at least here, remains on the side of the camp that believes another colder/ snowier than normal winter lies ahead for our region.
As far as the fall goes, we’re likely to see a predominant southeast ridge dominate the pattern, with more of a “back and forth” fight across our immediate neck of the woods. In some ways, we’re beginning to see this type reflection in the pattern this week.
In any event, the latest JAMSTEC fall (Sept-Nov) idea as far as temperature anomalies go:
Note the southeast ridge should keep the south-central and south-east (on up along the eastern seaboard) a touch warmer than average. The center of the cool will back west for a time to include the Rockies, N Plains, and northern Lakes. Again, more of a back and forth fight here, and quite active!
Before we close, as stated above, we think another cold, snowy winter lies ahead for our area. The JAMSTEC remains bullish on another cold winter (Dec-Feb) for the 3rd month in a row: