Weekly Outlook: Generally Pleasant Autumn Weather…

October (month to date) is running slightly wetter than normal. Through the 21st, rainfall is running 0.52″ above normal at IND.

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A reflection of cooler than normal air remains centered over the Great Lakes and upper Mid West.

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In the near term, frosty mornings highlight the weather headlines. We forecast mid to upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings across many central Indiana neighborhoods, including isolated lower 30s reports. Nothing like a frosty, crisp October morning…

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The pattern will transition from cooler than normal this week to briefly warmer than normal for the second half of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will flirt with 70° early week, but we caution the ridging won’t hold.

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Rainfall amounts through the upcoming (7) days will be generally light. Note the GFS and Canadian forecast less than 0.25″ out through the upcoming (7) day period.

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A weak boundary will move through the region late Thursday into early Friday with light showers possible.

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Another (more significant) storm system will pass late day 7. Cooler air will quickly flow in behind this system. Early precipitation estimates range from light (0.25″ range GFS) to moderate (0.70″ range Euro).

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Frosty Mornings Ahead…

While some communities experienced widespread frost Sunday morning, most folks around central Indiana escaped the frosty threat, as clouds hung tough around the immediate area.

Wednesday and Thursday mornings will provide another chance of frost across more widespread portions of the region.  We forecast 37 degrees Wednesday morning officially at IND and 38 degrees Thursday morning.  That said, outlying communities can expect to fall into the lower to middle 30s both mornings.  We suggest to plan on more widespread frosty conditions the next couple of mornings compared to that of Sunday morning when an official Frost Advisory was in effect.

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Light Showers To Begin The Week Otherwise Cool And Dry…

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44/ 62

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Reinforcing Cool Air…After a cool weekend, a reinforcing shot of unseasonably chilly air will move into the region later this evening.  A couple sprinkles or light showers are possible both today and Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will remain light for those that do see a shower.  The bigger story will be the cool air as highs Tuesday only top out in the lower to middle 50s.  Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings as skies clear and lows dip into the 30s.

Extended Stretch Of Dry Weather…High pressure will supply lots of sunshine and an extended stretch of dry weather Tuesday night through the weekend.  Additionally, after an unseasonably chill start to the period, temperatures will moderate, reaching above normal levels over the weekend.  All-in-all, a very pleasant weekend appears to be waiting on deck.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Interested in private weather consulting?  E-mail us at bill@indywx.com.

This was the peak weekend for fall foliage across many central Indiana communities.  Lots of vibrant colors remain and with an overall dry, cool week upcoming we should be able to hold onto that color for a while longer.  John Salewicz sent in this beautiful photo taken in Zionsville over the weekend showcasing the color.  Thanks, John!

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IndySportsReport.com Colts Forecast

Colts v. Bengals Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

10.19.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  After a gloomy Saturday, today will feature bright sunshine and a continuation of cooler than average autumn air.  Needless to say plan on packing the jackets and sweaters for that important tailgate.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather” all season long!

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home

Partly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
Temp: 45-50 Temp: 52 Temp:  57
Wind:  W 5 MPH Wind: SW 5-10 MPH Wind:  SW 5-10 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.10”

IndyWx.com 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

IndyWx.com 2014-2015 Winter Outlook
Issued: 10.19.14
Author: Bill McMillan- Chief Forecaster

2014-2015 Winter Outlook

Whitestown, IN-  The time has come yet again for us to post the annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook.  After last winter, I know some of you may cringe at the sound of that word- “winter.”  The brutal winter of ’13-’14 was one for the record books around these parts in terms of snowfall totals, duration of snowpack, arctic cold, etc.  Winter 2013-2014 won’t be forgotten in quite some time, if ever.  All of that said, no one can stop time and another winter awaits on deck…

Before we go further, it’s important to note that any long range, seasonal, forecast is a risky business.  Only the Good Lord above knows what the future holds.  While we’ll give you our best educated idea below, it’s important to note that this isn’t a forecast that’s “etched in stone” by a long shot.  We can highlight items that have our attention and suggest the way the winter pattern may go, but overall confidence in any seasonal forecast could (and should) be classified as low when compared to the day-to-day weather forecasts you see here or from your favorite weather outlet.  One final note before we sort through some of the data- we suggest raising an eyebrow to any winter outlook you may see out there that doesn’t list specific numbers (in regards to snowfall or temperatures) and/ or uses broad-brushed terms such as “harsh” or the “worst winter we’ve seen” without substantial data and numbers that back up such a call.  There’s simply no room for sensationalism in this industry, and, unfortunately, it’s becoming more common these days.

Lets dig into some of what has our attention…

ENSO Discussion/ Central and North Pacific Profile:

It wasn’t too long ago that some outlets were touting a major El Nino (represented by water temperatures that are above normal in the Equatorial Pacific) was on the way.  Models that, at one point, did happen to show a major El Nino are continuing to “back down” to a more reasonable weak-to-moderate event.  First, no El Nino is like another.  Furthermore, it’s also important to note that most models are keying in on what’s called a Modoki El Nino (or an El Nino that features anomalous warming in the central Pacific waters).  Big differences take place between an east-based event, central-based event, or west-based event.

As of mid October, the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO forecast suggests a weak to borderline moderate El Nino event is on the table this winter:

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The European forecast model seasonal forecast shows the developing Modoki El Nino as we head into the winter:  Note the warmer anomalies shifting west as we transition from November, December, January to December, January, February:

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Perhaps an equally important factor in the winter pattern across our neck of the woods has to do with what’s going on with water temperatures in the central and north Pacific.  The memorable (good or bad) winter of 2013-2014 was dominated by a persistent dip, or trough, in the jet stream steering winds across the Mid West and East.  This was powered, in large part, by anomalously warm water in the northeast PAC region waters.  This promoted an Alaskan ridge for the majority of the winter which played a role in dislodging one arctic air mass after another southeast.

Note the current SST anomalies as of 10.18.14:

CurrentSSTAnomalies

The central Pacific cool anomalies coupled with the warmer north and northeast Pacific anomalies lead us to believe the pattern may at least resemble (remember no winter pattern is identical to another with all of the “wild cards” in play) itself to that of last year, including plenty of arctic air intrusions.

* When it comes to developing analog years (we talk about this below), we must admit that we don’t have nearly as much experience to lean on when it comes to the impact the central/ north Pacific water profile has on our weather compared to that of the ENSO state.

Analog years:

In developing the 2014-2015 winter outlook, we’re leaning on the following analog years: 1968-1969, 1969-1970, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, and 2009-2010.  Analog years give us similar patterns of years past to help formulate an idea of what may lie ahead.

Again, no winter is identical to another, but we can draw ideas of what we may, or may not, see by looking back at past similar patterns.

Sorting Through Additional Data:

While the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) sea surface temperature anomalies would suggest a big ticket winter looms, the model is actually contradicting itself with its’ forecast surface temperatures for this winter.  Blowtorch, anyone?!

Image 1- seasonal Dec. Jan. and Feb. sea surface temperature anomalies; Image 2- seasonal Dec. Jan. and Feb. surface temperature anomalies

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The September (latest version as of this post) JAMSTEC makes much more sense with itself and our overall ideas as winter approaches.

Image 1- projected Dec. Jan. and Feb. sea surface temperature anomalies; Image 2- projected Dec. Jan. and Feb. temperatures anomalies; Image 3- projected Dec. Jan. and Feb. precipitation anomalies

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There have been studies published that suggest an early northern hemisphere snow and ice pack can impact blocking in the winter months and the resulting pattern.  Northern hemisphere snow pack is off to a bang up start.

Links to research on this topic and a look back at the last (6) mid Octobers for comparative purposes:

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Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Chart as of 10.18.14:

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What does this all mean to me?

Hoosier snow lovers have to love the trend we’re on- 4 of the past 5 winters have featured above normal snow here.  As we started, take any long range seasonal outlook with a grain of salt.  That said, there’s a “tad” :-) higher than normal confidence in this year’s forecast.  The combination of analog years, a Modoki El Nino event, and the temperature profile in the northern Pacific waters would imply a cold and snowy winter (when compared to normal) awaits for our region.

  • IndyWx.com forecasts meteorological winter temperatures (Dec., Jan., Feb.) to average 2 degrees below normal (Fahrenheit).
  • Average snowfall at IND is 25.9″.  IndyWx.com forecasts 35″ of snow (first flake to last flake).

Remember that we’ll be here all winter long producing daily forecasts and in-depth winter storm discussions.  In addition, if your industry is impacted by winter weather, please be sure to shoot us an e-mail at bill@indywx.com to learn ways about how we can help your business with customized winter weather consulting.  Also, be sure to follow us on Twitter @IndyWX for more “behind the scenes weather…”

References:

  • http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
  • http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en
  • http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
  • http://www.weatherbell.com
  • http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=localcli
  • http://www.ecmwf.int

Breezy For Your IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast…

Today will be the mildest day of the upcoming seven day stretch as highs top out in the upper 60s with a good deal of sunshine. The trade off? Gusty southwest winds that eventually shift to the northwest during many high school football games this evening as a cold front moves through the region.

Winds will still be gusty during your favorite game tonight (15-20 MPH).

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After highs in the upper 60s today, most communities will quickly fall into the 50s for game time. With a continued gusty breeze, be sure to pack the jacket!

Forecast 6pm temperatures:

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Your official IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast for Friday, October 17th:

Mostly cloudy, breezy, and turning cooler. A widely scattered shower is possible across northern and northeastern portions of the state. Most will stay dry. Temperatures falling into the lower 50s central and north and upper 50s downstate by the end of the game. West wind 15-20 mph and gusty will shift to the northwest during the game. Precipitation totals where it does rain will be light and under 0.10″.

Beauty Of A Close To The Work Week…

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Pick Of The Upcoming 7 Days…Though we’ll note a gusty southwesterly breeze by the afternoon hours, Friday will easily be the pick of the upcoming seven days with dry skies and slightly above average temperatures.  Enjoy much needed sunshine!

Chilly Air Blows In…A cold front will pass through the region early Saturday and be accompanied by a noted wind shift to the northwest and an increase in cloudiness.  While any one location stands a risk of seeing a quick-hitting light (key word) shower, most folks will remain dry.  Best chances of picking up a shower will be across northeastern portions of the state.

The big story over the weekend will be a renewed push of unseasonable chill (more like November).  Couple that with a gusty northwest wind Saturday and you’ll definitely want the jacket or sweatshirt handy.  Sunday will feature a frosty start followed by a cool, crisp afternoon complete with sunshine.

Reinforcing Chilly Air…Light rain will be possible Monday evening into early Tuesday as another push of cool air blows southeast.  Precipitation amounts will be very light and won’t amount to much.  Otherwise, the story as we move into the middle and latter portions of next week will be more dry weather and unseasonably cool conditions.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Getting To Be That Time Of Year…

A couple opportunities of frost and freeze conditions will be served up to central Indiana communities in the upcoming week.

Reinforcing shots of chilly air will invade the region with the first being Saturday morning. A cold front will pass with an increase in cloud cover and a possible light, quick-hitting, shower then the story will be dry, chilly, and breezy conditions Saturday afternoon.

Note the digging trough Saturday.

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While we think the GFS may be too aggressive on Sunday morning cold (suggesting an official freeze for IND), we are confident of the first widespread frost for many communities Saturday night/ Sunday morning as overnight lows fall into the middle 30s for most folks.

Another push of chilly air will move in Monday night and Tuesday and result in the threat of another frost the middle of next week.

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When you total up the upcoming 5-10 days we’ll note a similar theme that we’ve seen through October so far- significantly cooler than average.

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While we “flirt” with that first official 32° reading, note that it’s right on schedule per the “normal” first freezing temperature.

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