Unsettled, But A Better Feel Coming…

Screen Shot 2016-07-24 at 8.26.06 AMHighlights:

  • Storm chances increase tonight-Monday morning
  • Drier, cooler air on deck
  • Widespread storms Thursday

Hang In There…It’s been a long couple of days with high heat and humidity, but relief is in sight. A cold front will move through the state Monday.  Ahead of this front, a band of showers and thunderstorms will slide through Indiana.  A few of these storms could be strong with locally heavy rain.  Best chances of storms across central IN appear to arrive tonight and Monday morning, before transitioning to southern IN Monday afternoon.  Drier air will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday.

Our next rain and storm chances are dialed up for Thursday and early indications suggest this could be a fairly widespread event.  Though we’ll maintain rain chances next weekend, coverage will diminish when compared to Thursday.  Temperatures will be much more tolerable than what we’re dealing with today.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″ (Locally heavier totals)

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) A big ole ridge will supply oppressive heat and humidity across the Mid West this weekend.  Unseasonably hot temperatures will combine with downright “soupy” air to create heat indices between 105-110 degrees across central IN this weekend.  Take it easy and implement frequent breaks if your plans take you outdoors.

HeatIndex

2.) Similar to what we’re seeing on radar this evening, thunderstorms will also make an appearance from time to time for some.  With an atmosphere loaded with moisture, any storm that develops will be plenty capable of producing “frog straggler” type rainfall rates.  Perhaps there will be a couple periods of more concentrated storm activity, focused on late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and again late Saturday night-Sunday morning.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

LateFriNight

3.)  The pattern is one (as has been the case all summer) that’s transient and the situation that develops to wrap up July and open August is an all-too-familiar look around these parts: NW flow aloft that offers storm potential, along with seasonal to slightly warmer than average.  It’s a wet look, overall.

WetPattern

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

This is what the upper air pattern should look like as we close July- 10 days from now (hard to believe)!

July31st

4.)  Looking further ahead, the latest JMA Weeklies continue to suggest the most sustained hot pattern should remain across the west as we rumble deeper into August.  That’s not to say we won’t deal with periods of hot weather here at times, but sustained heat will be hard to come by with such a pattern…

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Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.39 AM

Cranking Up The Heat…

Screen Shot 2016-07-20 at 7.25.55 AMHighlights:

  • Much more dry time than stormy
  • Heat and humidity reach dangerous levels this weekend
  • Cooler next week

Splash And Dash Storms, But Most Remain Dry…A quick glance at the forecast above may suggest wet times, but don’t let that fool you.  “Isolated” and “scattered” are key words. While we’re still keeping an eye on the potential of a more widespread complex of storms late tonight/ early Thursday, we’re far from confident on the precise location of this potential storm complex and short term modeling isn’t offering up much help.  Regardless, with such a muggy air mass in place, an isolated storm could fire anytime between now and the weekend.  There are a couple periods we’re watching for more concentrated storm potential (Friday evening and Sunday).  Timing remains fluid.

The big story with this forecast remains the heat and humidity.  Temperatures will soar into the middle 90s this weekend and when you combine those hot readings with dew points in the lower and middle 70s, dangerous conditions result for anyone with longstanding outdoor plans.  Have a means of taking frequent breaks and receiving plenty of water.  The heat and humidity this weekend will be a serious situation.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast: 

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″ (locally heavier totals)

Heat Builds Late Week, But Doesn’t Last…

The pattern remains in a transient state.  An upper ridge will build over the region late week into the weekend.  With this will come the hottest air of the season (multiple days of lower to middle 90s starting Friday, continuing into early next week).  The hottest days appear slated for Friday and Saturday.  Heat indices will approach 105 degrees.

However, just as fast as the ridge builds over the area, we see the “want” to position itself over the Rocky Mountain region.

Hot dome will provide a couple days of highs in the middle 90s Friday-Saturday. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits

Hot dome will provide a couple days of highs in the middle 90s Friday-Saturday. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits

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Note the difference of the ridge position by Day 10. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits

Note the difference of the ridge position by Day 10. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits

4While some oppressive heat and humidity will impact our local area to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend, this is a pattern where it’s incredibly difficult to deal with any sort of one particular weather pattern for any time of substance.  Looking forward to August, we don’t see this changing.  Remember that word we leaned on to begin summer? “Transient” remains the best way to describe the pattern moving forward, as well.

Additionally, this is a pattern that should result in a return of wet and active times as we put a wrap on July and welcome August.  It’s impossible to nail down the precise details of any one particular neighborhood’s rainfall numbers from this distance, but understand the pattern is one that should yield more locally hefty rains in the weeks ahead.

WetTo close, we’ll leave you with a look at the latest PNA pattern.  This has been the primary driver of our weather this summer, and it also argues any sort of dry, hot weather doesn’t last.  Note the positive PNA returning to close July.  This also lines up well with our idea of unsettled times returning…

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PositivePNA

Stormy Start; Heat Builds Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 10.07.34 AMHighlights:

  • Storms to start the work week
  • Heat and humidity build
  • Heat doesn’t last

Renewed Storm Chances Later Today…Alarm clocks weren’t needed today as a big complex of storms and heavy rain rumbled through the state during the pre-dawn hours.  Many neighborhoods received a quick 2.5″+ during the overnight and predawn hours.  As we write this, renewed thunderstorms are firing to our west and will impact portions of the state later this afternoon.  Additional hefty rains are a good bet for some.

We’ll dry things out as we rumble through the mid week stretch and while isolated storms are possible to close the week, most folks should remain dry as a big ole’ upper ridge builds over the mid west.  The big story will be intensifying hot, humid weather- centered on Friday-Saturday.  Heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees during this time frame, as well.  The good news is that forecast data points to the associated hot dome backing west and setting up shop over the Rockies to close the month and open August.  Accordingly, the hottest anomalies will shift west, as well.  We’ll be left with a NW flow aloft providing a cooler and unsettled stretch to close the month of July and open August.

Wet

The pattern to close July and open August should look rather familiar to what we’ve seen the majority of summer. NW flow aloft with frequent rain/ storm chances. Courtesy: TropicalTidbits

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Pleasant Weekend Before Storms Return…

Screen Shot 2016-07-16 at 7.24.50 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Storms return late Sunday night into Monday
  • Heat builds late next week

Refreshing Feel…A weak disturbance is tracking through central IN this morning with a band of clouds and a couple sprinkles.  That said, sunshine will quickly return late morning into the afternoon and set up a beautiful day, along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity.

Our next round of storms will arrive from the NW late Sunday night into Monday.  A few of these storms could be strong to severe and also include locally heavy rain.

Modeling disagrees on the magnitude of cooling and drier weather behind Monday’s front.  The more aggressive GFS would imply another push of pleasant air for a couple days Tuesday-Wednesday, while the European isn’t as bullish.  For now, we’ll split the difference and revisit tomorrow.

One thing that modeling does agree on is building late week heat.  Expect a hot, humid close to the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″

Hot, Drier Pattern Awaits…

We’ve been relatively spoiled so far this summer- both in regards to temperature and precipitation.  That said, as we approach the second half of July, things appear to be changing for the hotter and drier side of things.

July, so far, has been very pleasant, locally.  BTW- another push of drier air is inbound that should lead to a nice weekend, including low humidity values.

1Ensemble data continues to suggest that the mean ridge position (hot dome) develops over the eastern portion of the country early next week before slowly retrograding northwest with time.

2By the middle and latter portions of next week, the hot dome is set up in a position that will yield an extended stretch of hot temperatures across the state, including multiple mid-90 degree highs across central IN.

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4Given the current look of the ridge position, this would also be a rather dry pattern, as well, as the storm and rain track would shift north across the Canadian border into the northern Great Lakes states.  (Follow that 588 line above for a good indicator of the storm track).

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8One always has to be careful in trying to predict the timing of the ridge breaking down/ overall placement this time of year (models can struggle), but for now it appears as if we really heat things up and dry things out as we move through next week- especially the middle and latter portions of the week.