I. Scattered light showers will impact the southern half of the state today, but these won’t be a big deal and more of just a nuisance for our Valentine’s Day. Temperatures will remain in the 40s for most of the afternoon before rising overnight.
Forecast radar today at 3p shows scattered light showers around.
II. A cold front will drop in Thursday evening and this will deliver more widespread heavier rainfall and even a couple of thunderstorms Thursday night. In general, we expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain to fall.
III. We’ll turn briefly colder to close the work week. A couple of light snow showers are possible Friday morning and a wave of low pressure will “try” to push moisture into the cold air Saturday. As of now, we remain unimpressed with the prospect of impactful wintry weather Saturday, but have included the potential of wet snow in our Saturday forecast. Precipitation appears to be very light. Nonetheless, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.
IV. The pattern continues to scream and warm and wet next week as a big ole southeast ridge remains in place. This will direct the steering current into the TN and OH Valley regions and multiple waves of rain, occasionally heavy, will result beginning early next week and continuing into the middle and latter portions of the week. Widespread 2″ to 3″ totals with locally heavier amounts seems to be a good bet next week.
We note a true Gulf connection and precipitable water values that will exceed 300% of normal at times. Parts of the Ohio Valley will deal with flooding, but it’s premature to get more specific than that from this distance. If you live near waterways, plan to keep a close eye on future updates and forecasts.
V. We note data continues to suggest a colder period looms as we close out the month of February and head into March. Note how the GEFS and EPS continues to tank the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Winter’s not over, not by a long shot…
