Unsettled Stretch Ahead…

Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  While some short term forecast models suggest some hefty rainfall totals, we think what’s more than likely to happen is that most neighborhoods see around one half inch late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.  There will be some locally heavier totals reported closer to 1″, but that will be the exception to the rule!  The local air mass is just so dry (as of this evening dew points are still in the lower 50s across central Indiana) and while moisture will increase through the night, it’ll likely be too little too late.  Regardless, don’t be surprised if a rumble of thunder wakes you during the overnight. Some early showers are possible Sunday, otherwise the theme will be a drier one through the day.  While some of our short-term forecast models suggest showers are around Monday, we’re siding more with the GFS and European models and providing a dry start to the work week (we’ll continue to monitor and update if needed Sunday).

The rest of the work week will feature a busy time of things in the good ole forecast office as we track multiple disturbances.  Each one of these will be capable of producing heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.  As of now, we’re forecasting heavier rain Tuesday and Friday, but we’ll fine tune the timing as we move forward.

Finally, as we move into next weekend, there are considerable model difference between the GFS and European forecast model.  For now, we’re splitting it down the middle and going with dry skies along with comfortable temperatures Saturday.  Model numbers vary from the upper 40s (GFS) to middle 50s (EC) for overnight lows and lower 70s (GFS) to middle 80s (EC).

More later, friends!  Have a relaxing evening!