Before we take a look-ahead to January, reviewing our December forecast vs. reality (and what’s to come), shows that we’re in a strong position to grade well for the last monthly forecast of 2019- especially across the eastern half of the country.
IndyWx.com December Temperature Outlook:
Reality Month-to-Date:
Remainder of the month:
As we look ahead, at least until we get to mid and late winter (when the AO and NAO can begin having more influence on the pattern), I think we’ll go as the MJO sees fit. There are growing signals the MJO should begin to get more amplified as we get into the new year and this should play a significant role in the overall January pattern. The idea is a relatively warm open to the month (cooler than what we’ll see the next week, but still a touch milder than average) that trends colder as the month progresses.
The MJO looks like it will cycle into Phase 5 before “curling around” into Phases 6 and 7.
This would yield a transitional time of things from a predominant eastern ridge that gives way to expanding cold late Week 2 into Week 3.
By the way, there are reasons to believe the amplitude would likely continue into Phase 8, 1, and 2, late month and into February. If so, this would result in cold overwhelming the pattern along with increased storminess (plenty of winter storm threats to boot). Truth be told, after a mild open to meteorological winter (nice to still cash-in on an early season snow event), there are plenty of reasons to believe we’re looking at winter to return with authority as January evolves.
Our complete January Outlook will be online Sunday.