You can always catch your latest 7-Day Video Forecast in the video player to the right of this post.
We continue to be very impressed with what’s ahead, winter weather-wise, for central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 10 days. Simply put, what’s at stake is a 10-day period of winter weather that could rival the all time greats in terms of snowfall and cold. It’ll certainly be interesting to watch things unfold in the days ahead.
Here are some quick-hitting bullet points of what we’re eyeing…
- Accumulating snow late tonight-Thursday
- Accumulating snow late Saturday night-Sunday
- Coldest air since 1994 early next week
- Dangerous cold and wind chill values to 40 degrees below zero
First things first and that’s tonight’s and Thursday’s snow event. We think snow becomes widespread across central Indiana prior to, or around, midnight. The low pressure system that will aid in snow production across our region Thursday AM is organizing across the central Plains this evening and this will move east northeast with time between now and Thursday morning.
Latest high-resolution simulated model data shows the snow increasing in coverage across central Indiana around midnight.
We think the period of heaviest snow comes during the early to mid morning Thursday and will result in a horrible rush period on area roadways. Accumulating snow ends by noon and is replaced with falling temperatures, gusty northwest winds resulting in blowing and drifting, and scattered lake-driven flurries.
All eyes will then shift to storm number two set to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday. An arctic boundary will moves towards the region Saturday night and Sunday and help surface low pressure develop. All of our medium range models (GFS, Canadian, European) are on board with a developing surface low in the Ark-la-tex region late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning and can be seen below.
There are still some questions that we have in regards to the extreme snowfall forecasts off some computer models, and we’ll stick with our initial call made here last night of an additional 3-6″ of snow late Saturday night-Sunday for now. We come up with that range based off an all model blend, including raw numbers, operational data, and ensembles. An extremely strong arctic high pressure system will be plunging south and will limit how far north the heavy snow makes it. That said, snowfall ratios and an initial impressive thermal gradient will lead to a heavy snow storm for some parts of the Ohio Valley region Sunday. Stay tuned.
As early next week approaches (and I’m all settled in to enjoy what I hope to be Auburn’s second National Championship in 4 years), the coldest air since 1994 will be blowing into the region. Downright dangerous wind chill values of 40 degrees below zero will be possible Monday into Tuesday and result in extremely dangerous conditions to be outdoors for any period of time.
Here’s a look at the latest wind chill idea:
Forecast lows of 15 to 20 degrees below zero will be likely early next week across central Indiana with afternoon highs struggling to make it to zero.
Prepare now for a significant triple threat punch of snow and cold in the days ahead. Stay tuned!