It’s great to be back in the good ole weather office and craft a post about the upcoming weather pattern- a pattern that should be pointed out to be progressing along as planned. Simply put, if you like winter weather, this is the pattern for you.
If you haven’t had a chance to read the posts from the past couple weeks, please be sure to do so as we laid the ground work as to why we were buying a cold, wintry pattern returning:
- From December 20th: “Colder Than Normal Pattern Set To Return…”
- From December 23rd: “Impressive Cold Pattern Looming; Beware Of The Northwest Flow…”
As we look ahead over the upcoming (7) days we’re tracking two accumulating snow opportunities and one big slug of downright bitter (and dangerously cold) air.
First things first and that’s the snow event ahead Wednesday night into Thursday.
We currently think snow overspreads central Indiana late Wednesday night into the wee morning hours Thursday. Snowfall accumulations with system numero uno will likely be in the 2-4″ range for many neighborhoods across central Indiana.
The latest high-resolution NAM model shows the snow moving in and becoming moderate to briefly heavy during the wee morning hours Thursday:
Heaviest snow with system #1 falls prior to noon Thursday with light snow and gusty winds lingering for the PM.
That said, we don’t have much down time as system #2 is set to arrive late Saturday night into the wee morning hours Sunday. The weather situation is one that features an arctic boundary sinking south over the region Sunday morning with a wave of low pressure organizing along the middle Mississippi River Valley. The surface low is expected to move northeast Sunday and help spread precipitation into the greater Indianapolis and central Indiana region. With cold air in place, this precipitation is likely to fall in the form of snow.
While we have a couple of days to keep an eye on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, the likelihood of additional accumulating snow is growing with each and every model run. The “ridiculously” early call on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, based on a variety of raw numbers, medium range models, and ensembles would suggest 3-6″ of additional snow is ahead during the aforementioned time period. Again, we caution confidence ins’t as high as with system #1, due to the time period, but please be sure to stay tuned.
The GFS shows widespread snow falling across the region Sunday, with a favorable surface low track for accumulating snow across central Indiana:
Following the second snow system, model data continues to suggest we have to deal with some downright dangerous air. In fact, this would be the coldest air in many a year across central Indiana and many other locations of the Mid West and even into the Deep South. Forecast lows in the double digit below zero range are possible following the second snow maker and associated arctic front early next week….
Needless to say, I hope you like winter weather!