We continue to watch substantial changes in the high latitudes and the modeling (on a daily basis) is being forced to correct towards more of a blocky look by Thanksgiving week. My suspicion is this has to do with Phase 2 of the MJO.
This morning, note the changes highlighted from now (image 1) to the 2 positives beginning to combine (image 2) to eventually form more of a high latitude ridge, or block (image 3).
By the time we get to Thanksgiving, note how there’s a totally different look and a pattern has ‘suddenly’ developed that can drive cold air (in more of a sustained manner) south into the Lower 48- particularly eastern portion of the country.
This doesn’t just happen overnight, but what we should begin to see on the modeling is more substantial cold shots for the last 10 days of November, including the threat of some sort of wintry “fun and games” from the Plains, stretching out to the Great Lakes and interior Northeast around Thanksgiving, itself. (Too soon to call for the OHV).
My suspicion is this is all thanks to the MJO. Note how the European continues to slow things in Phase 2 (a cold phase this time of year for our portion of the country).
The question then becomes “can we take things back into Phase(s) 7, 8, and 1 in December (all traditionally cold phases).
Or do we roll right into Phases 3, 4, 5, and 6 (all big time warm phases). That’s what our December forecast hinges on and we’ll keep a very close eye on things. Stay tuned.
