Seemingly all winter, we’ve been unable to get the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, and MJO to cooperate and align. The end result is an overall pattern that has been unable to produce widespread, sustained cold. As we progress through the remainder of the month, the contradicting signals will continue.
Despite the negative NAO (a signal notorious for drawn out cold patterns this time of year), the deeply negative PNA and developing strongly positive EPO will hold off any significant cold. Even in the immediate term, notice how the signals are’t matching up (i.e. strongly positive NAO with a negative EPO).
The MJO is forecast to rumble into Phase 4 to close the month and this is also a phase that favors eastern ridging.
Given the above, to no surprise, the consensus of model data is for a warm, wet close to the month.
Does this pattern change in April and we actually see some alignment with our teleconnections? What about the MJO? Does the current movement continue and do we get into the colder Phase 1 as currently shown? Interesting times ahead as we sort through the data. Our official April Outlook will be online late week.