The first work week of the new year will feature us looking ahead to a significant period of cold around mid month. Additionally, we’re still trying to figure out the snow situation. While we’re not ready to pull the trigger on a southern stream event or high ratio clipper, it’s going to be tough to get out of this cold blast without some sort of snow. Those details we’ll become clearer as time draws closer.
A word of caution to those who watch operational data and want to iron out specific solutions in the 7-10 day range, you may want to stop (or have the dramamine handy). When the pattern is in states of major transition, model mayhem can ensue. Add in a crashing SOI and model output will continue to offer up a variety of solutions from run-to-run.
While we’re still not confident on how things unfold from a precipitation perspective in the Sunday-Monday time frame, we’re much more confident on the coming cold. What’s on the table is a day where we see lows around zero and highs in the lower teens. (Lay snow down and those numbers will drop lower).
The GFS ensemble is FINALLY coming around to seeing the arctic plunge. Source: Weatherbell.com
The European ensemble screams “trouble” with a leader-follower type scenario Sunday-Monday. We know Friday’s storm system is a rain maker for our area, but does a secondary push of energy lead to renewed storm development cutting through the Ohio Valley early next week? That’s what we’ll continue to monitor.
What do we know: That a significant period of cold arrives in the 13th-14th time frame. Depending on the snow situation, temperatures around zero can be expected for lows with highs in the lower teens.
Still trying to sort through the details: A lot is going on with our weather pattern right now and models will continue to struggle with storm specifics. Whether we see a southern stream system put us on the table for snow potential, or deal with fast-moving, high ration clipper systems remains unclear at the moment. Stay tuned.