This week is about as boring as it gets around these parts in mid to late March. With the active pattern as of late, we’ll gladly take it.
While we have a weak system that will deliver raw conditions and light rain Wednesday (touch of light snow and, or sleet across northern and east-central Indiana), that’s about it for “excitement” between now and early next week. High pressure will return as we get set to close the work week and head into the weekend, along with increasing sunshine and moderating temperatures. We still forecast highs to reach the 50s Thursday and Friday and 60s over the weekend.
It’d be wise to enjoy the “lull” in the action now, as things turn much more active as we flip the page forward to Week 2.
First up, in what will be a series of storm systems to impact the area as we close March and open April, will be a coast-to-coast storm that tracks east during the early portions of the Week 2 time frame. More specific to our area, this would likely be a system that begins to impact central Indiana during the early to middle parts of next week.
We’ve highlighted a couple of the items that have our attention, and if they come to fruition, will result in one more wintry “setback” before we say spring has officially sprung.
This is a bullish signal for an ominous spring storm, including the risk of severe weather to the south of the storm’s track and late season wintry potential to the north. It’s, obviously, far too early to get specific with this event, but it’s worth keeping a close eye on. Note that as the surface low (SL) is tracking east, a late season arctic high is pegged to be dropping southeast.
By the time we get to the middle of next Tuesday, the surface low is deepening across the TN Valley region. Despite the strong high nosing into New England, I’d expect a northward trend in the system as time gets closer, especially considering we’ll be in late March by this time. Stay tuned.
Thereafter, the pattern is set to remain quite active as we head into the 4th month of the year (2019 is flying by already). Buckle up; the well deserved quiet times now won’t last much longer…
By the way, despite what may be one last push of wintry conditions early next week, data remains in excellent agreement of a significant warmup as we flip the page to April. We continue to believe the month, overall, will average above normal in the temperature department.