Updated 02.05.23 @ 10:57a
We still need to watch the leader-follower setup mid and late week. While an overall warmer than normal pattern will carry the day through mid month, there can still be periodic opportunities for wintry “mischief” despite the mild time of things as a whole. Perhaps more interesting though is what is happening behind the scenes now to potentially drive a more dramatic pattern reversal later this month.
We note the MJO is forecast to roll into Phase 8 just before the 20th.
This is not only a much colder phase, but also an active (stormy) phase, as well.
Note the high latitude blocking in place on the analog composite above. Also of note, forecast model trends are taking the EPO negative slowly but surely once past mid-February.
Call here is for a colder than normal pattern to return for the last week of the month and through at least the first week of March, but time will tell. In the meantime, we’ll pay close attention to the 12z guidance today on mid and late week and update again either late this evening or early Monday morning.