Nov 17

Monday Forecast: A Calmer, Colder Week Ahead…

Updated 11.17.13 @ 8:46pm

Zionsville, IN Sunday was a violent day across central Indiana, including multiple tornado touchdowns (Lebanon and Kokomo, for example), heavy rain (widespread 1″+ totals), and damaging straight line winds (numerous trees and power lines down across the region, fueled by 70-80 MPH wind gusts).

Thankfully the new work week will dawn with a much calmer weather pattern in place, albeit much cooler.  High pressure will dominate our region, featuring dry and mostly sunny conditions both Monday and Tuesday.  Monday will still be a bit breezy and we’ll note a stronger push of cold air arriving Monday night, setting the stage for a seasonably chilly Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our next weather maker will arrive as we wrap up the work week. The culprit will be a cold front blowing through the Hoosier state and while model data differs significantly on precipitation totals in the Thursday-Friday time period, we’re confident in rain falling followed by a big blast of cold air for the weekend.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, the threat is there for some wintry “mischief” as southern branch low pressure attempts to attack the cold high to our north… We have plenty of time to watch this, but just make a mental note in the back of your mind for now as you prep for Thanksgiving holiday travel.

Monday: Mostly sunny; 40/ 51

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Tuesday: Mostly sunny; 29/ 48

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Wednesday: Increasing afternoon cloudiness; 30/ 51

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Thursday: Cloudy and raw with rain likely; 43/ 49

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Friday: Cloudy with rain likely; 44/ 49

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Saturday: Mostly cloudy and colder; 30/ 39

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Sunday:  Mostly sunny and cold; 19/ 30

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-forecast-a-calmer-colder-week-ahead/

Nov 17

Extremely Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Ahead…

Good morning!  We’re waking up to sunshine this morning after a round of rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Over 1″ of rain fell for many during the overnight period (1.53″ to be exact here at IndyWx.com HQ).

Unfortunately, skies now are clearing and this is only going to aid in the severe weather potential today, including some dangerous long-lived and strong tornadoes.

ECWVThis is a very rare November high severe weather risk day and must be taken seriously by all.

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The thinking here hasn’t changed in that we feel discrete super cells develop during the late morning and early afternoon before morphing into a squall line capable of producing damaging straight line wind. With the dynamics and energy in play here, any of these super cells could spawn a tornado. Additionally, it’s possible that a few of these tornadoes could be long tracked and very strong tornadoes.  The latest high-resolution simulated radar data shows this well.

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We still target a cold front passing through the region around, or just after, sunset and with this frontal passage the severe weather will come to an abrupt end.  The latest HRRR data shows this well as dew points begin to crash behind the cold front, indicative a much drier, cooler, and more stable air mass arriving tonight.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/extremely-dangerous-severe-weather-outbreak-ahead/

Nov 16

Late Saturday Night: Thunderstorms Develop Overnight; Update On Sunday

Good evening, Hoosiers!  Showers are developing now, and these will increase in coverage and intensity as we progress through the overnight. As we move into the wee morning hours, don’t be surprised if you’re awoken with loud claps of thunder, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail.  That said, we think overnight thunderstorms remain below what would officially be considered “severe.”

Here’s a look at the simulated radar later tonight, valid at 2am local time, courtesy of the HRRR model.

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As for Sunday, we continue to look over the latest data and our thoughts haven’t changed. It still appears the two biggest threats will be from damaging straight line winds and the possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes associated both within the squall line, itself, but also with any individual severe cells that develop before “morphing” into the squall line.  It should also be pointed out that even outside thunderstorms, southwest winds will howl across central Indiana, periodically gusting upwards of 40-45 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. Hunker down…

The latest high-resolution NAM suggests the possibility of super cells entering western Indiana early Sunday afternoon before organizing into a squall line as it moves through central and western Indiana. This line will mean business as it moves east across the state, and latest data suggests the most significant severe threat for central Indiana will be from 12 noon through 6p, moving west to east.  By sunset Sunday, most of central Indiana will see a much needed (and much colder) wind shift to the northwest, ending any threat of severe weather.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/late-saturday-night-thunderstorms-develop-overnight-update-on-sunday/

Nov 16

Some Saturday Afternoon Thoughts…

We continue to monitor Sunday’s severe weather outbreak very closely.  Simply put, the latest data suggests all of central Indiana will be under the gun for a potentially dangerous and life threatening severe weather event Sunday.  The bullet points highlighted in our previous post haven’t changed, but we note tornado parameters may be even more impressive per latest data.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid multiple tornado touchdowns will be reported across central Indiana tomorrow afternoon, followed by a more widespread damaging straight line wind event mid to late evening.  Certainly please keep abreast of the latest watches and warnings that will come tomorrow.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, but will remain below severe levels.  The latest NAM simulated radar shows the developing showers and thunderstorms tonight.

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Fast forward to Sunday evening and we note a line  of severe thunderstorms moving through central Indiana, including a potential widespread damaging wind event.

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Also, just to let you know, we’re also monitoring next weekend for another possible big weather event.  This time we’re not talking severe weather, but possibly a major early season arctic attack…  The latest European model isn’t holding back.  Could a cold Thanksgiving week be shaping up?  We’ll monitor closely.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/some-saturday-afternoon-thoughts/

Nov 15

More On Sunday’s Severe Weather…

We’re zoning in on severe weather details for Sunday and have posted some simulated radar data below that may suggest what area radars look like Sunday afternoon and evening.  That said, here are the quick important bullet points to remember for Sunday:

  • Central Indiana appears to be under fire for severe weather potential at any point Sunday afternoon and we bracket the hours from 12p until 8p for the “greatest threat” of severe weather across the region.  
  • Initially, we’re concerned with the potential of individual severe cells that may promote quick spin-up tornadoes.  While this could impact any parts of central Indiana, it’s the area from south-central to east-central Indiana that we’re most concerned for this potential as of now.
  • All of central Indiana will be the focal point for the possibility of a damaging straight line wind event as a potent squall line crosses the state from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening.
  • Rainfall amounts may approach 1″, but it’s the severe weather (straight line wind and tornado threat) that’s of greatest concern.

Latest high-resolution simulated radar shows the squall line moving across the state Sunday afternoon and evening.  This is courtesy of the Weatherbell Analytics model suite.  Stay tuned for much more information and be sure to follow us on Twitter (@indywx) for updates on the go!

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The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights Sunday’s severe weather threat.  As you can see below, this storm will impact a large portion of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys so please take note and keep abreast of the latest weather conditions should you have travel plans Sunday.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-sundays-severe-weather/