January Thaw For The New Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2017-01-14 at 4.13.32 PM Highlights:

Damp, chilly Sunday
Milder week ahead
Spring-preview late next week

Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s). Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north. Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.

While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions. Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.

We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week. Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions. (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).

The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend. In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday. Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place. We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.

Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February. Winter is far from over…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 0.00″
Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Bill McMillan January 14, 2017 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Freezing Fog, Rain, Spring Tease, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Saturday Morning Freezing Rain Update…

More widespread precipitation is spreading across central Indiana this morning. Most of this precipitation is falling as freezing rain.

Modeled forecast radar continues to show moisture streaming across the region through around the lunchtime hour before diminishing.

Temperatures will remain around 30-32 degrees along and north of the I-70 corridor as this rain falls so it’ll freeze on contact. Allow extra time if you must travel and slow down. Due to our phenomenal road crews and marginally cold temperatures, we don’t expect major travel issues this morning, but do use caution if traveling. A light glaze of ice (around 0.10″) is possible on elevated surfaces, including tree limbs and power lines.

Temperatures will go above freezing this afternoon across most of central Indiana and precipitation will end. Highs both today and Sunday should top out in the middle 30s across the region.

Lows tonight will settle back down into the middle to upper 20s, but dry conditions should remain for most of the night.

Our next round of precipitation looks slated for a Sunday morning arrival and, similar to this morning, this precipitation will likely fall as a mixture of light rain and light freezing rain.

Updated 7-day out later! Have a great Saturday!

Bill McMillan January 14, 2017 No Comments Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain

Surge Of More Widespread Precipitation Saturday Morning…

Light freezing rain and drizzle has been falling across central Indiana this evening, mainly from the city, itself, and points south. A light glaze of ice has been reported into the forecast office in Monrovia and Plainfield.

For the next several hours, patchy light freezing rain and drizzle will continue, but nothing in a widespread, “uniform” fashion (great news for those night owls out and about).

However, we do note some of the higher resolution forecast models suggesting a waive of more widespread precipitation arriving into central Indiana Saturday morning. This most likely pushes in sometime between the hours of 7a-9a and encompasses the heart of the state, including Indianapolis.

This “slug” of moisture will continue to fall across central Indiana through the morning hours before tapering off and diminishing around lunchtime. The afternoon and evening should be void of any widespread precipitation of significance.

While this won’t be a crippling event by any stretch of the imagination, be careful for slick spots Saturday morning and allow road crews room for salting. In general 0.05″-0.10″ of glaze still seems like a good bet for most central Indiana neighborhoods by lunchtime Saturday.

More in the morning! Have a great night!

Bill McMillan January 13, 2017 No Comments Forecast, Freezing Rain

Quick Friday Evening Notes…

1.) While we’re still expecting freezing rain across central Indiana tonight into the early morning hours Saturday, dry air will really limit totals. Instead of the 0.10″-0.20″ of glaze per…

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Bill McMillan January 13, 2017 No Comments Freezing Rain, Rain, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Winter thoughts..., Wintry Mix

Weekend Ice And Heavy Rain Next Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-12 at 7.08.19 AM

Highlights:

Turning colder
Freezing rain develops Friday night
Wet times continue

Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.

The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.

We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.

Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.