Dec 29

Intense Snow Squalls By Evening…

One cold front moved through central Indiana last night with rain showers and a notable wind shift.  A secondary cold front will sweep through the region later this afternoon.  Not only will this deliver reinforcing cold air to wrap up the short work week, but with enough upper level energy and instability, it’ll also serve to ignite some intense snow squalls by evening.  This won’t be a “uniform” snow event, but where the squalls develop, expect rapid reduction in visibility (brief white-out conditions), and a quick coating to 1″ of snow.  Winds will also gust to 40 MPH by evening and overnight.

Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like later this evening:

4p forecast radar

4p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

10p forecast radar

10p forecast radar

If you have travel plans this evening into tonight, please allow extra time to reach your destination as these intense snow squalls lead to brief white-outs and quickly create slick travel.  Scattered snow showers will continue into Friday morning, especially across the northern and eastern sections of the state.  Friday will be a cold day as highs top out around 30.

More with an updated 7-day forecast later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/intense-snow-squalls-by-evening/

Dec 28

Snow Squalls Thursday Evening; Active Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-28-at-10-18-11-amHighlights:

  • Showers this evening
  • Snow squalls develop Thursday evening
  • Active weather pattern into next week

Early Sun Gives Way To Showers By Evening…A sunny, frosty start to the day will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky by afternoon and scattered showers by evening.  Latest data suggests showers arrive into central Indiana by 6-7p.  This won’t be a significant rain maker, but just enough to create damp conditions as we put a wrap on Wednesday.

A reinforcing push of cold air will blow through Thursday evening.  With enough instability and upper air energy, scattered heavy snow squalls will become likely across the region by afternoon into the evening.  This won’t be a “uniform” snow event, but some localized accumulation (thinking a coating to less than 1″ in spots), along with dramatic drops in visibility can be expected by evening as these scattered snow squalls increase in coverage.  Additionally, winds will gust to 40 MPH and will aid in creating hazardous travel at times tomorrow PM.  Scattered snow showers will continue into the day Friday.

Moving forward, we continue to eye the potential of a light wintry mix arriving on New Year’s Eve.  As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but we’ll monitor things as new data streams in.  “Light” is the key word for now and temperatures look marginal, at best, for wintry issues.

As we rumble into next week, model consistency and overall agreement is rather non-existent.  This leads to a lower than normal confidence on the important details in regards to the early week storm system (and looking forward, towards a second storm coming along just beyond the current forecast period).  For now we’ll go with showers Monday afternoon paving way to more widespread rain Tuesday.  As colder air rushes in Tuesday night, precipitation will change to snow along with a strengthening northwest wind and an increasingly bitter feel by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-squalls-thursday-evening-active-pattern/

Dec 27

New Year, New Pattern Awaits…

As we rumble through the remainder of 2016, a “transient” weather pattern awaits.  Cooler, more seasonable, air is working itself into the Ohio Valley today and will be followed by another (stronger) cold front Thursday.  That front will pack more of a punch in the cold department, along with providing opportunity for snow showers, as well.  That said, we’re still about a week off from more of a sustained cold pattern.

With the arrival of the new year, a new weather pattern will emerge as well…

The EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) will flip back to negative phases as the New Year arrives.  This will help drive the shift, initially, to a colder regime, locally.

epo

epoanom

wpo

wpoanomAccordingly, we see the ensemble data flipping to a colder pattern over the upcoming (10) days.  Note the low anomalies in the higher latitude regions today (Image 1) versus Day 10 (Image 2).

day1

day10The pattern developing by Day (10) is one capable of producing another frigid regime- only January style.  Cross-polar flow sets up shop and, unlike, December, some blocking is noted, as well.  This can help the mean storm track shift further south.  (Bye-bye Great Lakes cutters, though Mid Western and Ohio Valley Snow Lovers will find a new worry in the form of suppression potential ;-)).  Individual storms will have their respected challenges, as always.  As a whole, it’s a very cold, stormy look and a pattern capable of leading to an expanding snow pack across the Lower 48.

Notes:  The new European Weeklies are in and reflect the general idea here of a more sustained cold, wintry pattern unfolding as January arrives.  The Weeklies are very cold through Weeks 2-3, in particular.  As far as snow goes, they also suggest an active storm track with numerous storms leading to an increasingly snowy regime through the middle parts of January, as well.  That said, we’re a bit hesitant to focus too much on the long-term snowfall details as the Weeklies have been too generous in the snow department over the past several weeks.  As a whole, it’s very tough to argue the pattern isn’t one that should yield the snowy “goods” in the coming weeks though.

More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/new-year-new-pattern-awaits/

Dec 26

Unseasonably Warm; Wet Day After Christmas…

screen-shot-2016-12-26-at-8-33-12-amHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm today
  • Showers and perhaps a t-storm by lunchtime
  • Turning more seasonable later this week

Wet At Times Today…A cold front will push across the state later this afternoon.  Ahead of the front, a warm southwesterly air flow will lead to a spring-like feel on this day after Christmas.  Coverage of showers will increase by late morning and around lunchtime, including the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm.  Once the front sweeps through the region, our winds will flip to the northwest and result in a cooler feel as early as tonight.  Tuesday will feature much more seasonable conditions.

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Thursday afternoon and with enough upper level energy around, we’ll mention scattered snow showers in our forecast.  Colder weather will be with us to close the week and head into New Year’s weekend.

Speaking of New Year’s, we still eye a storm system around New Year’s Eve.  Confidence is low in the overall set-up in regards to storm track and timing and fine tuning will be required.  For now, we’ll simply go with a developing light wintry mix Saturday and “sure up” the details later this week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-warm-wet-day-after-christmas/

Dec 24

Merry Christmas Eve…

screen-shot-2016-12-24-at-8-03-42-amHighlights:

  • Areas of fog
  • Rising temperatures Christmas night
  • Turning more seasonable next week

Ah, Christmas Eve…From our home to yours, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a blessed holiday season.  It’s hard to believe Christmas Eve is upon us.  Despite areas of fog and an overcast, chilly day, weather really won’t present much of a challenge, locally, for travelers or last-minute shoppers (surely we don’t have any of those in central IN).  😉  Rudolph will be needed tonight as areas of fog and low clouds remain across portions of the state.

Conditions will remain damp and chilly into Christmas as most of the day remains in the 30s.  Our air flow will shift to the south Christmas afternoon and provide a late day boost on the thermometer into the 40s after dark and near 50 by midnight.  As we see the southerly wind erode the chilly conditions in place we’ll also have to be on the look out for a passing shower Christmas afternoon.

Better shower coverage will push in ahead of the cold front Monday morning.  An embedded clap of thunder is also possible.  Winds will shift to the NW with the passage of the cold front Monday afternoon and cooler air will spill into central IN Monday night. That high you see in the upper 50s will come just prior to the frontal passage.

After the mild start Monday, seasonable temperatures will return next week.  Models are struggling with handling a piece of energy the middle of next week.  We’ll keep an eye on it over the next day or so.  Scattered snow showers will likely accompany a push of colder air Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/merry-christmas-eve/