Mar 12

Work Week Opens Snowy…

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably cold
  • Snowy Monday
  • Cold week ahead

Sunny, But Cold…We may have sprung forward overnight, but Mother Nature can have a mind of her own.  Despite gaining an extra hour of daylight in the evening, temperatures will feel more like the dead of winter this week.  With the cold air comes snow chances, as well…

A frigid start to the day is at least accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine, however, clouds will increase as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Eventually those clouds will lower and thicken and give way to snow overspreading the state from west to east during the predawn hours Monday.  With marginally cold temperatures during the daytime Monday, we don’t anticipate big travel problems for most of central Indiana.  That said, if your travels take you north, prepare for slick travel as a “plowable” snow falls for our neighbors across northern Indiana.  As it stands now, we forecast generally an inch, or less, for the city, itself, Monday morning before melting occurs during the daytime.  As colder air pours into the state Monday evening, an additional dusting to coating is possible in spots through central Indiana as scattered snow showers and heavier bursts continue into midweek.  As mentioned, further north, several inches of snow (2″-5″) will fall for places like Lafayette, Kokomo, Marion and points north.  Perhaps an even bigger story will be the cold that follows the early-week snow.  Lows will fall into the middle teens for many central Indiana neighborhoods Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looking ahead, confidence remains low in the late week forecast.  That fast-moving northwest flow aloft can (and will) wreck havoc on model solutions and fine tuning will be required as we progress through the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/work-week-opens-snowy/

Mar 11

Winter Finally Shows Up…

Highlights:

  • Much colder than average
  • Snow prospects to open the week
  • Busy pattern continues

Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-finally-shows-up/

Mar 10

Extended Period Of Unseasonably Cold Air…

Today will begin a rather extended period of unseasonably chilly air that will grip the region.  It’s not until the latter portions of next week that we should begin to see slowly moderating temperatures.

The reason for this is a persistent trough setting up over the Great Lakes and eastern portions of the country.  From time to time, individual disturbances will come racing along in the fast northwest flow aloft and help to reinforce the cold and also create snow potential.

Forecast models continue to show an eastern trough into the middle parts of next week.

 

This is an impressively cold pattern for so late in the season.

This is the type pattern that will promote multiple nights in the teens over the upcoming week.  We forecast coldest nights to be Saturday night, Sunday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night.  Each has the potential to send neighborhoods into the middle-upper teens.

As far as snow goes, we still are keeping an eye on the early stages of the work week.  We’ll fine tune things this weekend, but models continue to show energy diving southeast Monday that would help snow overspread the region during the day, continuing into Tuesday morning.  This time of year, snowfall rates and time of day means a world of difference between snow flying in the air, versus accumulating.  The potential is there for light accumulation Monday night as reinforcing cold air pours in.

Stay tuned!  Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/extended-period-of-unseasonably-cold-air/

Mar 09

Enjoy Today; Winter Returns…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like feel today
  • Much colder pattern developing
  • Accumulating snow early next week?

Colder Pattern Taking Hold…The day is dawning bright and sunshine will be with us through the majority of the day, along with pleasant, spring-like temperatures.  Find a way to get out and enjoy it!  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end tonight.

Clouds will increase late in the day and give way to showers during the nighttime period.  A cold front will press south and pull much colder air into the region as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  The suppressed route is still the one most likely for the weekend system and instead we’re left with an unseasonably cold, mostly dry forecast, locally.  We’ll still be on the watch for the potential of some light snow early Saturday, but the more significant, accumulating snow will be shoved south to the TN Valley.  Those beautiful northeast TN and western NC mountains look to be in the “sweet spot” for this storm (plowable accumulations).

Another storm system will track through the Mid West as we close the weekend and open next week.  Consequently, clouds increase late in the day Sunday and snow should overspread the region Monday.  Reinforcing cold air will arrive Tuesday with snow showers and gusty winds.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/enjoy-today-winter-returns/

Mar 08

Strong Wind Event; Winter Makes A Comeback…

Highlights:

  • Windy day ahead
  • Colder pattern develops
  • Two snow chances in the days ahead

Hold On To Your Hats…The big story today will be developing strong and gusty winds, especially from the city and points north.  Westerly gusts will approach 50 MPH+ this afternoon and evening.  Hold onto your hats (and steering wheels)!

As we move into the latter portions of the week and into next week, a fast and active weather pattern will develop.  Three disturbances will have at least some impact on our weather between Thursday evening and Tuesday morning.

The first disturbance will result in an increase in cloudiness late Thursday along with an evening shower- especially across far eastern portions of the state.  We’ll turn much colder to close the week and that’s when our second disturbance will approach.  Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow is possible.  Models have trended further south with this disturbance, but we need to keep an eye on this as a last-minute shift north could take place.  As of this update, the most impactful disturbance looks to be the one that arrives Monday into Tuesday.  Accordingly, we’ll forecast developing snow Monday, continuing Tuesday with strong and gusty winds and even colder air.

After a prolonged stretch of spring-like warmth, the upcoming forecast period will serve as harsh reality that Old Man Winter still has some fight left in him.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-wind-event-winter-makes-a-comeback/