Dec 21

Welcome Back Winter!

Highlights:

  • Mild open to winter
  • Christmas weekend snow
  • Cold returns

Pleasant Open To Winter…It’s a state divided today as clouds dominate across northern portions while the majority of central and southern IN will enjoy plenty of Vitamin D!  It’ll also be unseasonably mild today and Friday as a southerly air flow returns in advance of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will deliver spotty showers Friday and an area of low pressure will track along the boundary Saturday.  This will result in more widespread rain overspreading the region Friday night into the day Saturday. As colder air begins to filter into the region, we’re still thinking a narrow band of wet snow will develop along the northern shield of precipitation Saturday morning.

Turning our attention to Christmas Eve shows upper level energy moving across the Ohio Valley and this will likely result in an expanding area of snow across the region.  If trends continue, we’ll have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season Friday morning.  Are you dreaming of a White Christmas?

A cold pattern will engulf the region next week and we’ll await the middle and latter portions of the week for the potential of additional wintry mischief.  From this distance, it appears this very well may be a significant event.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-back-winter/

Dec 20

Touching Base On Wednesday Evening: Busy Winter Pattern Awaits…

Before we get into some of the latest thinking concerning the weather around Christmas, we want to reiterate the pending pattern change is one that we haven’t had the pleasure of “enjoying” over the past few winters.  Our idea is that a prolonged significantly colder than normal pattern is with us to close 2017 and continues into (at least) the first few weeks of January.  At times, and especially if we can get a healthy snowpack down, temperatures may become severely cold.  Speaking of snowpack, winter storms and rumors of storms will come fast and furious in this pattern and it’ll be important you keep abreast of the latest forecast as you go about your holiday travels this year.  It’ll be very, very interesting to see how the general public perceives the coming few weeks as winter conditions will be much more impactful when compared to the past few years.  Needless to say, we’ve alerted our snow clients that it’s most certainly time to stock up on the coffee and other energy drinks…some long days (and nights) are likely in this pattern down the road.

Now to the shorter-term:

I.)  Our first winter weather maker will arrive on the scene Saturday.  Guidance today has trended colder, overall, and suggests we need to be on guard for the potential of a narrow, yet possibly heavy, band of wet snow developing on the northern side of the precipitation shield Saturday morning.  As of now, central Indiana into western and central Ohio should keep close tabs on forecast developments.  We’ll have to “hone in” on overall snow placement over the next 24-48 hours, but that’s the best we can do from this distance.

II.)  Additional upper level energy will rotate across the Ohio Valley Christmas Eve and this, combined with arctic air pushing into the region, should maximize moisture production and lead to a period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve afternoon into early Christmas Day.  This energy should feature some Christmas “magic” and be enough to provide a more widespread light accumulation across the region (when compared to Saturday).

III.)  As we look forward to middle and latter parts of next week, the pattern screams potential is on the table for a more widespread, significant winter storm (Plains to the Northeast).  While obviously early on in the game, the overall pattern does back up the idea presented by modeling.

The wintry hits don’t stop there, but we’ll save those details for later posts.  Make it a great Wednesday evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/touching-base-on-wednesday-evening-busy-winter-pattern-awaits/

Dec 20

Mild Air On Borrowed Time; Turning Wintry…

Highlights:

  • Dry midweek
  • Rain changes to snow
  • Turning bitter

Changes Await…The midweek stretch will feature dry and unseasonably mild conditions.  A storm system will deluge the Tennessee Valley today, but will be too far south to impact our weather.  We’ll shift our air flow around from the northeast today to more of a southerly direction Thursday afternoon.  This is in advance of our next storm system that will deliver showers as we wrap up the last work week before Christmas.

While confidence is beginning to increase in the evolution of things as we head into Christmas weekend, important details are still a bit “iffy” and will require additional fine tuning over the next day, or so.  With that disclaimer, here’s how we see things playing out:

A cold front will slip southeast Friday night and a surface low will move northeast along the boundary Saturday.  The general consensus this morning is that this wave of low pressure will track further southeast when compared to yesterday’s data.  This would yield a colder solution, locally, and subsequent faster changeover to a period of wet snow Saturday.  In fact, if trends continue, we may have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season for Saturday.  Hope for a White Christmas is very much alive and kicking.

MUCH colder air will drill southeast Christmas Eve and with enough upper level energy in place, we forecast an additional period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve.  Bitterly cold temperatures will take control for Christmas and into early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-air-on-borrowed-time-turning-wintry/

Dec 19

VIDEO: Cooler For Midweek; Discussing Christmas Snow…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-cooler-for-midweek-discussing-christmas-snow/

Dec 19

Mild Now, But The Deep Freeze Awaits; Christmas Snow?

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably mild for now
  • Dry midweek
  • Turning colder and wintry as Christmas approaches

Bottle It Up…By this time next week, most will want to go back in time to the unseasonably pleasant December weather we’re currently experiencing.  If you’re one of these individuals, it’s too bad you just can’t bottle it up for the frigid times that loom.

The short-term period will continue to be dominated by relatively quiet conditions given the time of year.  A storm system will pass to our south Wednesday and provide the Tennessee Valley a good soaking.  We’ll turn cooler for midweek, but remain well above seasonal averages.

A cold front will move towards the region as we wrap up the work week.  This will deliver showers Friday into Saturday before colder air results in a potential transition to wet snow Saturday.  Thereafter, details remain sketchy (at best), but overall confidence is increasing in at least some snow falling during the Christmas Eve – Christmas morning period.

Models are struggling with a second piece of energy that will blow through prior to the big cold blast next week.  Typical model biases are showing themselves this morning (more progressive GFS versus the more amplified European and Canadian).  The best idea at this point is to go with a blend and trend towards a period of snow developing during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Eve, but please understand we’ll have to fine tune things over the next few days.  The other item to consider is that it won’t take much upper energy at all to ring out any available moisture as the arctic intrusion arrives.

Regardless of whether we enjoy Christmas snow or not, the period next week into early parts of 2018 looks particularly cold (at times bitterly so) with additional winter weather opportunities.  Snow removal companies might want to begin stocking up on the coffee!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-now-but-the-deep-freeze-awaits-christmas-snow/