- Page 720

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17
Days 18-25
Days 25-32
Days 32-39
Days 38-45
European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Saturday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Weekend And Looking Ahead…

It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday.  Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state.  Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain.  When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana.  Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!

As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure.  As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain.  Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday.  With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.

Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.

As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region.  We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.

Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week.  The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend.  Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat.  A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.

On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.

Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…

Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

Active Severe Weather Day…

We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather this afternoon and evening across central and eastern portions of the state.  The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center includes an ‘Enhanced’ risk for the majority of the state and has upgraded southeastern portions of the state into a rare ‘Moderate’ risk.

Part of the reason behind today’s severe weather has to do with an overall pattern shift. An intense short wave trough (especially for this time of year) will dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from southern WI (this morning) before “cutting off” over the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Additionally, a couple of frontal boundaries will swing through the state- the most potent being the boundary that surges east this afternoon and evening.  The combination of ingredients spell trouble across at least a portion of the region- especially from Indianapolis and points south and east this afternoon and evening.

High resolution forecast radar products are likely struggling with handling the specifics today, but we think one or two lines of storms will track southeast across the state this afternoon and evening.  The risk of severe weather will diminish from 7p to 8p from northwest to southeast across the state.  Greatest concerns from a severe perspective include the potential of large, damaging hail and straight line winds.  Additionally, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out.  It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon and evening.  Have a means of getting the latest information with respect to watches and warnings that may be issued later today from the National Weather Service.

As we look ahead, though the severe threat will end, unsettled times will remain this weekend.  In fact, a couple of the stronger showers Saturday afternoon could contain hail (below severe levels), due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low.  Greatest coverage of showers this weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours both Saturday and Sunday.

Cut Off Low, Forecast Discussion, Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, SPC, Summer, T-storms, Tornadoes