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May 29
Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?
In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.
It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.
In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.
After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow. Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things. As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern. Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks. With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.
When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:
In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit. With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead. Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-from-the-recent-dry-regime/
May 29
VIDEO: Alberto Chugs North…
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May 28
VIDEO: Alberto’s Moisture Arrives Late Tomorrow Night…
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May 27
Alberto’s Tropical Moisture Tracks North Later This Week…
Understanding tropical remnants can be a headache to track once inland, here’s our best idea of where we currently think Alberto’s remnant tropical moisture will track this week. More specific to Indiana, we believe best opportunity for tropical downpours will come late Tuesday night through early Thursday. Wednesday appears to be the wettest day.
The combination of blocking high pressure off the Florida coast and the lack of forcing to the northwest should allow the remnants of Alberto to track north, northwest into the middle and latter parts of the week before curling northeast into southeast Canada and New England by next weekend.
The European output (shown above) paints a swath of 1″ to 2″ with locally heavier rainfall into parts of IL and IN. Again, we think the majority of this comes in that Tuesday night through Thursday morning time period.
When we look at forecast precipitable water, values climb above 2″ Wednesday and will help promote locally heavy downpours.
This isn’t expected to be a particularly long lasting event and we should get back to an increasingly dry regime as next weekend approaches.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/albertos-tropical-moisture-tracks-north-later-this-week/
