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May 20

Extended Period Of Dry Weather; Warming Trend Next Week…

• Filed under Client, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend, Rain, Weather Rambles

• May 20, 2023

Updated 05.20.23 @ 6a

A cold front settled south across Indiana Friday evening. Most area rain gauges picked up anywhere between a tenth and 1/3 of an inch but a few lucky neighborhoods cashed in on up to half an inch. Whatever amount of rain you received last night, cherish it.

As we look forward, an extended dry period and quiet weather can be expected. This overall dry, calm pattern will prevail through the entire week ahead. As moisture levels slowly begin to increase over the holiday and all-important Indy 500 weekend, small rain chances may sneak back into the forecast, but even this is very unlikely from this distance.

High pressure will result in dry skies and plenty of sunshine in the week ahead (despite some haze from time to time, courtesy of those Canadian wild fires).

The focus is really just on temperatures over the next few days. The cool and dry airmass that reinforced itself behind our frontal passage will remain in control through Monday and then we’ll see moderating temperatures through the upcoming work week. Despite the temperature “uptick,” dry air will remain in place through the week. Great times for outdoor activities, no doubt, in the week ahead.

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May 19

Dry Times Likely Become A Bigger Issue Before The Pattern Shifts…

• Filed under Client, El Niño, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer

• May 19, 2023

Updated 05.19.23 @ 8:58a

The latest drought monitor (from May 18th) only shows portions of far western Indiana in “abnormally dry,” or D0 intensity.

Rainfall over the past (30) days has been hit and miss- not what one ideally wants to see this time of year as feedback can take hold quickly.

Officially, IND is running 3.4″ below normal in the rainfall department since April 1st.

A cold front will press through central Indiana this evening and offer up a smattering of showers and thunderstorms. While some lucky folks will pick up a half inch, or so, most will likely only accumulate rainfall totals between 0.10″ and 0.30″.

After this, dry times return through the weekend and next week, as a whole. In fact, the pattern long term looks significantly drier than normal through the month of June.

Without question, we’ll see the drought monitor begin to include more of the Ohio Valley in abnormally dry or “droughty” conditions in the coming weeks.

As the Nino matures, the middle and back half of summer should take on an increasingly wet look, but that’s not before 4-6 weeks of the current dry pattern getting even drier…

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