Updated 09.03.23 @ 9:22a

The extended stretch of quiet weather has given us time to finalize the initial set of analogs we’ll lean in on for the upcoming winter. Speaking of that, our annual Winter Outlook will be published Friday, October 27th.

While long range seasonal models differ on the placement of warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we’re refraining from going “all-in” on a modoki Nino event as of now. This is something that no doubt will have our attention as we go through the course of the next several weeks. It’ll be interesting to watch the trends. The modoki, or central based, warm event would go a long way in upping the ante for a colder, stormier winter, locally. This is something that’s possible but we still have more questions than answers with how this evolves.

SST configuration as of September 1, 2023:

Our initial set of analogs includes the following years:

• 1957-1958
• 1972-1973
• 1991-1992
• 2002-2003
• 2009-2010
• 1982-1983
• 2015-2016

We’re looking at 1st year Nino events of moderate to strong intensity. (Most modeling peaks this event in the +1.5 to +2 range in Nino region 3.4). In addition, we’re also looking at critical SST configuration in the NPAC and northwest Atlantic. Out of the list above, heaviest focus as of now centers on ’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16.

A blend of those years gives us the following temperature and precipitation pattern for meteorological winter:

Temperature

Precipitation

There’s a lot more that goes into our seasonal outlooks than simply taking a blend of analogs, but this will serve as a nice starting point from this distance. It’ll be very interesting to watch the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest SSTs currently “tucked in” to Nino regions 1+2 and 3 into potentially a more central, or region 3.4 event.

Make it a great Labor Day weekend and know we’ll have much more to come in the weeks ahead on our winter ’23 – ’24 thoughts…