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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-evening-video-tropical-airmass-locks-in-more-on-our-july-outlook/
Jun 29
July 2020 Outlook: The Heat Is On…
As we head into “halftime” of meteorological summer, there’s good reason to believe the hottest stretch of weather for a big chunk of the country awaits. So far this summer, Indianapolis has only hit the 90° mark a total of (3) times. If our idea is correct, that number will go much, much higher in the month ahead.
A highly amplified pattern will take up residence for the majority of the month which is certainly unusual for this time of year. Anomalous cold will set up shop out West while heat bakes the Plains into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Given the ingredients in place, there’s reason to believe this kind of pattern will “repeat” itself throughout a good chunk of the month. At least locally, we think this will be a rather humid heat, with timely rains throughout the month. Some of this rain will likely come from “ridge riding” storm clusters that ride the periphery of the ridge that will retrograde west from time to time during the pattern transition.
Modeling, overall, is in good agreement with the upper pattern.
Our official July Outlook is below. Officially for central Indiana, we’re forecasting temperatures to run 1° to 2° above normal with near to slightly above normal rainfall (1″ give or take either direction). Greatest concerns for drier conditions will reside through the southern and central Plains into the Great Lakes region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/july-2020-outlook-the-heat-is-on/
Jun 28
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
I. Recent wet pattern remains intact.
II. Persistent hot, muggy regime takes us into the holiday weekend.
Forecast Period: 06.28.20 through 07.05.20
A stationary frontal boundary will remain draped across the region until Tuesday night before getting a slight “nudge” off to the southwest Wednesday. The warm and humid pattern in place today will remain locked into the area straight through the holiday weekend (with a small break in humidity midweek). Periods of hefty thunderstorms can be expected- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. With such high moisture content in the air, locally heavy rainfall is expected at times. This “rinse and repeat” forecast will begin to change up by the holiday weekend as ridging builds overhead. While this won’t help us with the heat or humidity, this will reduce rain chances. Instead of scattered to numerous coverage, we’ll be talking about isolated coverage for the holiday weekend, itself. Most will stay dry. By this time frame, we’ll monitor the goings on to our south as a cut off low keeps the TN Valley into the Southeast region unsettled with more widespread storm coverage for the holiday weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-11/
Jun 27
VIDEO: Humidity Is Back Along With Periods Of Storms…
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Jun 26
Soupy Airmass Returns; Looking Ahead To Independence Day…
It’s still pleasant this morning across central Indiana, but that will begin to change by afternoon as heat and humidity increase in rather significant fashion. This tropical airmass will remain intact into early parts of the week and will help fuel hefty storms at times. The culprit? A warm front will lift northeast through the state over the next 12-24 hours, allowing a moist southwesterly flow to take control. A cold front will approach northern portions of the Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday before stalling out. This front will serve as a focal point for strong to severe storms mostly north of Indianapolis tonight. Eventually this front will slowly sink south before potentially even clearing the area, which would allow slightly cooler and much less humid air into central Indiana by midweek.
As we time out rain and storm chances, the first opportunity of scattered showers and storms will arrive late morning into this afternoon as the warm front begins to lift north. These will be of the “splash and dash” variety, but will be capable of brief heavy rain.
More widespread storms, including the possibility of a few strong-severe cells (damaging wind being of greatest concern) will target northern IN tonight- closer to the cold front.
These northern IN overnight storms should diminish before making it into Indianapolis.
With a warm and soupy airmass locked into place along with a trigger mechanism nearby with our frontal system, it’s a safe bet to expect scattered to numerous storms through the weekend and into Monday. During this time, overall coverage of storms should be greatest during the afternoon and evening, but even nighttime storms are possible. With precipitable water values approaching 2″ at times, any shower or storm will be capable of producing torrential rainfall in a short period of time.
As we move into early week, the front will get shoved southwest and drier air will try and intrude from the northeast. This may serve as a focus point for more widespread storms across central and western parts of the state early week. Eventually that drier air will win out across the entire area and should lead to a more pleasant feel along with eliminating rain chances by Wednesday into Thursday. Before we get to that point, widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″ to 2″ can be expected between now and Tuesday afternoon with locally heavier totals.
Looking Ahead: Things still look quite toasty around these parts for the Independence Day weekend, itself, as an expanding ridge builds overhead. Additionally, that same front that will be off to our west midweek will likely move back northeast by next weekend and help fuel a smattering of t-storm coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. Our call for the Independence Day weekend at this point is for hot, humid conditions (highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s) and plenty of dry time with widely scattered afternoon/ evening storm potential. These shouldn’t last terribly long for any one area.
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