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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-chilly-start-sunday-am-keeping-close-eyes-on-interaction-between-approaching-trough-late-week-and-remnant-tropical-moisture/
Sep 18
Quiet For Now, But Attention Warranted In The 7-9 Day Window…
The big story in the immediate term is centered squarely on the temperature forecast. Frost Advisories are up for our friends across northern parts of the state, northwestern OH, and into southwestern MI. Even a few folks outside of the city, itself, can expect patchy frost (a few weeks early mind you, and another byproduct of the recent dryness) across central Indiana.
There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the short-term forecast as quiet conditions prevail. High pressure will remain in control for the upcoming work week with slowly moderating temperatures. We’ll go from below, to seasonal, to slightly above normal by week’s end.
The next “problem” arises by next weekend as forecast models sort out what to do with remnant tropical moisture from now TS Beta and an approaching cold front. In this morning’s client video (never posted due to the connectivity issues), we walked through the various solutions. We’ll be “back to normal” from a video perspective late tomorrow and appreciate your patience more than you know.
There’s two windows that are open late next week/ next weekend, including the Deep South and the Ohio Valley dealing with remnant tropical moisture. Given the overall pattern, we favor the southern solution from this distance, but should Beta “dilly dally” in the western Gulf, there will be an opportunity for that next approaching trough to pull that remnant tropical moisture northward into an area desperately needing rainfall. Stay tuned. Interestingly, the European and GFS both agree on the northern trend at 12z.
Notes and Asides: We’ll be back at home base tomorrow night after being down on the Gulf for the past week and will resume normal video production at that point. Despite the quiet times right now, it’ll be interesting to see how things begin to ramp up late next week. Much more later. Have a relaxing Friday evening.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-for-now-but-attention-warranted-in-the-7-9-day-window/
Sep 18
Friday Morning…
I hope this finds you having a great Friday morning! Just wanted to drop a quick note to let you know of connectivity issues from the road this morning. I…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-2/
Sep 17
Long Range Update: Extended Dry Pattern Rolls Along; New Winter Seasonal Data Is In…
Unfortunately there likely won’t be any significant changes to our precipitation pattern until late autumn and winter. Until then, we’ll have to take any drop of rain we can find. Once the pattern flips though, it may do so in quick and rather dramatic fashion (still expecting a wet winter).
The consensus of long range data shows the dry pattern continuing over the upcoming few weeks, including the JMA Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and ensemble products.
Analogs and other teleconnections support this dry theme. At least in the immediate range (through mid October) the only way to bust up this dry pattern is to get tropical moisture involved.
The new JMA Weeklies maintain the ‘mean’ ridge position across the West for the majority of the upcoming few weeks, but there will likely be attempts to expand the ridge across the northern tier Week 2 and 3 that would lead to at least transitional periods of much warmer air, after the cool period in the short term.
The model sees the ridge expanding Weeks 3-4 and the associated warmth that spreads east after the chilly regime.
The new JAMSTEC seasonal data is also in and maintains a warm look this winter. A lot of this has to do with an expected persistent southeastern ridge. We agree with this but, as is the case each winter, there will be challenges that have to be dealt with.
We also agree with the active storm track through the Ohio Valley and associated well above normal precipitation in the December through February period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-extended-dry-pattern-rolls-along-new-winter-seasonal-data-is-in/
Sep 16
A Story On Sally…
Each autumn my family and I visit the gorgeous stretch of beaches on 30A (along the Florida panhandle). 99% of our visits have been met with pristine conditions, and I can count on one hand how many times (not all day washouts) rain has chased us inside.
For reference on what these beaches typically look like this time of year, I wanted to share a couple photos from last year’s trip. For those who haven’t been to Santa Rosa, Seaside, or Grayton Beach, this is what you normally can expect, including clear water and sugar-white sand. That is unless a hurricane threatens. While officially making landfall well to our west (roughly 150 miles in Gulf Shores, AL), the impacts were significant along the Florida panhandle. As Sally pushes inland, things are now slowly beginning to diminish here along the coast. It looks like we’ll finish this event in Grayton Beach with just shy of 19” of rain, 88 MPH winds, and at least 2 attempts of water spouts (not confirmed due to the intensity of rain and being at night).
Note the radar signatures around 1:45a this morning.
And again just after 4:30a.
It’s still tough to get out and explore the damage in our neighborhood, but a quick scan shows some of the impacts to houses, especially roofs and front porches.
The surf has also been something to behold. Many times, as the photos to begin showed, it’s tough to get 1’ to 2’ waves. This storm produced 12’ to 14’ waves, locally, along with a 4’ storm surge. In my 36 years, I’ve, personally, never seen waves like this on these beaches- including Michael, Ivan, and Opal.
See some of the videos I recorded this morning below:
Normally, this home is 50-75 yards away from the oceanfront.
The storm is, thankfully, now beginning to wind down here and we’re fully expecting to be back out on the beautiful beaches (though we know they’ll look very different from what we’re accustomed to) for an evening sunset. Our friends across the southeast states now will have to deal with flooding rain, gusty winds, and quick spin-up tornado potential between now and Friday evening.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-story-on-sally/
