Dec 03
Tonight we discuss the various model solutions for the upcoming wintry pattern ahead Friday through Monday. This is the data that helped us come to an official IndyWx.com forecast…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/03/video-model-discussion-on-upcoming-wintry-threat/
Dec 01
Your complete 7-Day IndyWx.com forecast can be found in the video player to the right of this post.
Before we begin to discuss the potential wintry mischief ahead for late week, it’s important to stress that there are still several unanswered questions out there that will have to be ironed out with time as we go through the next couple of days. That said, the latest data continues to suggest the potential is there for a rather prolonged, multi-day, winter weather event looming. This won’t come from some sort of powerhouse storm system, but instead multiple waves of energy (low pressure) moving along a pressing arctic boundary. The continued “curious” item here is the interaction with the arctic boundary’s progress south and east and the resistance that will be put forth from the southeast ridge.
The latest 500mb pattern off the 0z run of the GFS forecast model has “trouble” written all over it and we must keep a close eye on things as we move forward the next couple of days. Additional model data from the European forecast model and Canadian are also suggesting fun times ahead.
This image is valid Saturday evening and shows a couple of important items- the southeast ridge and the associated fight it’ll put up with the pressing arctic front, as well as “renewed” energy organizing across the Four Corners region, organizing before a track northeast.
The way we currently see things panning out would suggest the threat of light accumulating snow is on the table late Thursday night through Friday followed by a dry and cold day Saturday. That said, as shown above, renewed energy will move northeast the second half of the weekend into early next week and be responsible for spreading moisture back over what will be an unseasonably cold air mass in place, certainly one conducive for wintry precipitation.
It’s important to note that this isn’t just a snow event, but some places of the immediate coverage area (central Indiana, in particular) could experience an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain, as well. It’s far too early to talk about any sort of storm total accumulations as these type “overrunning” events can surprise… That said, we are gaining confidence on “part 1″ of this event providing light accumulating snow for most of central Indiana Friday- light meaning less than 3”. Additional accumulation of wintry precipitation would occur with “part 2” of this event during the back half of the weekend.
Again, it’ll be crucial to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and developments as things become clearer as we move forward. As of now, keep a mental note in the back of your mind that the possibility is there for accumulating snow late Thursday into Friday, as well as later in the weekend…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/01/potential-long-duration-winter-event-looming/
Nov 29
Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found in the video to the right of this article.
We continue to keep a close eye on the developing weather situation here late next week. Many questions remain in regards to the track, timing, and strength of the cold air associated with an arctic cold front that will result in record-breaking cold for portions of the country next week. How much fight will the southeast ridge put up as the front progresses east? Will we have to deal with a wave of low pressure along the arctic boundary, potentially leading to some wintry “mischief” around these parts? We hope to give some clarity around those questions by looking at some of the latest data below.
First, let’s take a look at the various model solutions for late next week. It should be noted that the latest run of the National Weather Service’s GFS forecast model has taken a turn to look more like the overnight run of the European forecast model and suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure moving through here Friday into Saturday of next week, leading to the threat of wintry precipitation. Taken at face value, this would suggest the threat of an accumulating snow event for central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning of next week. This is in stark contrast to the 0z GFS run signaling dry, cold weather during the aforementioned time frame.
Here’s a look at the latest GFS solution, valid next Friday evening:
There’s relatively good agreement in the GFS ensembles, but, again, we’ll have to fine tune the details. It’s encouraging to see the agreement in the pattern evolution, though, this far out.
Here’s a look at the latest European forecast, again valid for next Friday evening.
As we spoke about above, the 0z ECMWF run suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure in the cold air here next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the latest run of the GFS model, there would be the potential of accumulating snow here. The ensembles are on the left and the operational run is on the right. The precise details will have to be ironed out, but we note relative agreement here.
The latest Canadian forecast model also sees the wave of low pressure along the pressing arctic front, but suggests the wave is too far south to result in any sort of significant snowfall accumulation for central Indiana. (As of this post time, the 12z Canadian ensemble package hadn’t arrived).
So, with all of that said, we still have plenty of time to watch things unfold in the coming days. What are we confident in as of today?
What are the answers that have to be ironed out this week?
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/29/questions-around-next-weeks-arctic-front/
Nov 27
I’ll try and have a more in-depth post later tonight. Have a great evening!
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/27/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update/
Nov 26
Tonight’s Video Highlights: Lake Effect Snow Showers And Squalls Set To Impact Central Indiana Coldest Thanksgiving In Years On Deck Eyeing The Potential Of An Arctic Invasion Next Week
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/26/tuesday-night-video-update-lake-enhanced-snow-showers/
Nov 26
Good morning and happy Tuesday, Hoosiers! Yesterday’s forecast went as planned with most folks not receiving any snowfall accumulation and a couple reports of a dusting to half an inch type snow. We saw a couple local weather sources forecasting 1″ of snow and never understood that call as a lot of dry air had to be overcome initially.
Today will feature lots of clouds and another cold day as we watch a big southern storm begin to “make the curve” and impact the interior east. Places as close as eastern Ohio will deal with heavy snow tonight and early Wednesday. Additionally, locations as far south as east Tennessee will have accumulating snow by late tonight and early Wednesday.
Back here on the “home front” we’re looking at our next chance of snow arriving Wednesday afternoon. The wind trajectory off Lake Michigan should allow a couple of lake-enhanced snow bands to push south into north-central Indiana, primarily from IND and points north. It’s impossible to pinpoint with any degree of certainty the precise locations of these snow bands, but should your neighborhood end up under one of these snow squalls, don’t be surprised if you pick up a quick coating to 1″ of snow Wednesday afternoon/ evening.
Most model data (below) shows the lake-enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arriving Wednesday afternoon. We’ll have a complete forecast update (and probable video) here later tonight. Make it a great day.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/26/clouds-today-snow-showers-for-the-big-travel-day/
Nov 25
Good morning! Some light snow is possible later this afternoon and tonight, but “light” is the key word and this shouldn’t amount to much, if any, accumulation across the majority of central Indiana. At most, we’re looking at a few communities that may see a dusting to half an inch type accumulation. The latest high resolution data shows that we’re on the northern periphery of the storm system that will create all sorts of travel problems for our neighbors to our east and south in the days to come leading up to Thanksgiving.
Additionally, we’ll keep a close eye on the wind trajectory coming off Lake Michigan Wednesday. It’s looking more and more likely that we’ll have to deal with some lake-enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls here Wednesday as fresh arctic air pours south. While we’re not expecting any sort of widespread, uniform, accumulation with this, the idea is that a few places (primarily from IND and points north) may see a quick coating to 1″ of snow Wednesday as some of these snow showers and locally heavier (but isolated) squalls drift south into north-central Indiana. The latest GFS and NAM show the lake Michigan connection well and we’ll keep a close eye on the wind trajectory Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/25/snow-talk/
Nov 24
As we approach the all-important holiday travel season, I thought it would be nice to review what some of the data suggests in the long range sense. While nothing is “set in stone” talking about weather 2-3 weeks out, we feel pretty confident in the overall idea of a colder than normal pattern and one that’s also potentially wintry- from a precipitation perspective. The specifics with each storm will have to be handled as they come.
Let’s look at some of the data. BTW, I want to give full credit to the awesome model suite that can be found at Weatherbell Analytics for some of these images. Be sure to check them out at weather bell.com.
First, we’ll take a look at the Canadian ensembles, centered on the 8-16 day period. Note the tongue of cold coming out of western Canada, extending southeast and encompassing the Ohio Valley region. Folks, this is significant cold forecast off the Canadian ensembles as temperatures are suggested to average 5-7 degrees (C) below normal.
The latest GFS ensembles also suggest widespread colder than normal temperatures over the upcoming couple weeks. Similar to the Canadian (above), the GFS suggests temperatures average 5-7 degrees celsius below normal.
Latest European ensemble data suggests a cold look as well, but one that also may feature a day or two above normal (over the next couple weeks). The latest ensemble control run highlights the threat of some bitterly cold arctic air plunging south towards the second week of December (posted below). We’ll continue to monitor this in the days to come.
Here’s a look at the latest CFSv2. While it’s in stark contrast to only a couple of weeks ago (in its December forecast), the model is now onboard with most other data in forecasting a colder than normal December for our region.
It has to be pointed out that all of the cold data is forecast during a time where the three “major” teleconnections really aren’t in the most ideal spots for eastern cold. Typically, cold lovers across the eastern United States want a negative AO and NAO with a positive PNA. The NAO and AO are forecast to be very “sporadic” over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days while the PNA is forecast to go back negative. That said, the NAO has the biggest influence on our weather from January through March (we’ve covered this in posts in the archives). The expansive early season snow and ice pack through western Canada is having it’s say with a couple of early season “brutal” cold shots here (it’s very rare to get this kind of cold so early in the season). We’ll continue to monitor these teleconnections moving forward for any sort of a more defined signal that may begin to come to fruition.
Speaking of snow and ice cover; look at how much more territory across the Lower 48 is covered with snow and ice compared to this date (November 24th) last year. Impressive, huh?
November 24, 2012 (11.8% covered in snow)
November 24, 2013 (37.8% covered in snow)
As we look closer at the near term, there’s a chance of some light snow moving in Monday evening (not a huge deal, but some light accumulations of a dusting to half an inch are possible). Scattered snow showers will also blow into central Indiana Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of fresh arctic air blows in prior to Thanksgiving.
In the mid range, both the GFS and European ensembles (below) suggest an “intriguing” look for the first 10 days of December for the potential of a more widespread winter weather maker. It’s far too early for details, but with arctic air being supplied into a pattern that looks to have a southern branch beginning to flex it’s muscle, we’ll have to remain on our toes as we go into December… Here’s wishing you a very happy and healthy Thanksgiving, complete with safe travels!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/24/data-suggests-cold-pattern-keeps-on-keepin-on/
Nov 21
Today’s model data continues the theme of a southern and eastern storm for the days surrounding Thanksgiving. We’ll continue to monitor for any potential shift northwest, but as of now, the trend remains for a “suppressed” storm track. Here’s a look at the individual GFS ensemble members, off today’s 12z run. Taken at face value, 3 out of 10 members show some light snow in the air.
For now, the big story still appears to be the unseasonably cold air around for Thanksgiving. The ECMWF, Canadian, and American models (GFS and NAM) continue to hammer home the idea of a frigid Thanksgiving ahead (relative to the time of year, of course). I’m not convinced we won’t have to deal with some light snow next week at some point, but for now, the bigger story still appears to be impressive early season cold, and this cold pattern isn’t going away anytime soon.
The latest European forecast data illustrates this well. Note each and every day is well below normal, aside from tomorrow (cold air pushes in tomorrow PM). This is a snap shot of the average temperature (in degrees C) over the upcoming 10 day period. The blues, greens, and purples showcase the cold, relative to average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/21/a-closer-look-at-thanksgiving-week/
Nov 21
* A video update was posted late last night and talks about the rain, bitterly cold weekend ahead, and looks at Thanksgiving. Scroll below for that update.
Today will feature scattered light to moderate rain, but as noted last night, that rain will grow more widespread tonight. The latest HRRR simulated radar shows that well.
High temperatures today are forecast to reach the middle 50s, per the latest HRRR.
We’re still tracking major league early season arctic air due in here this weekend. Take a look at just how far below normal these temperatures are come Sunday (shown in degrees celsius). Wow! Our forecast high of 24 will be the coldest November day in 13 years and a whopping 25 degrees below normal! Thanks, as always, to Weatherbell Analytics model suite for this data.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/21/a-closer-look-at-thursday/
