Feb 13
This will be quick this morning, due to time, but we’ll have your complete 7-Day forecast posted tonight. We’re continuing to monitor the weather situation Friday. The Canadian has led…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/snowy-friday-on-tap-for-some/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Feb 12
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Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
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0/ 27 |
9/ 36 |
21/ 28 |
8/ 27 |
17/ 32 |
24/ 42 |
28/ 46 |
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0.00” |
0.00″ |
1-3″ |
1-2″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
0.20″ |
Forecast Updated 02.12.14 @ 7:50a
Midweek Moderation…While still cold (and still below normal), temperatures will begin to moderate from the frigid readings of the past few days. Additionally, we’ll continue to enjoy sunny skies both today and Thursday, though we’ll add a gusty southwest breeze into the mix Thursday.
Accumulating Late Week Snow…We’re eyeing two fast moving clipper systems that will deliver accumulating snow for late week. The first snow event moves in Friday followed by a second snow maker Saturday. Both have the potential to produce a couple inches of snow across the region and we’ll be able to fine tune these amounts over the next day, or so.
Rainy And Milder…A push of milder air will move in early next week. Unfortunately, the milder air will come at a cost. With the heavy snow pack on the ground combined with the warmer air moving in from the southwest we’ll be looking at a gloomy period, including a couple waves of rain.
A push of colder air will swoosh back in here Tuesday night and could lead to a wintry mix before precipitation end. Looking longer term, we’re still expecting a “taste of spring” late next week!
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/accumulating-valentines-day-snow/
Feb 12
With today’s latest forecast model runs in house, we have excellent run-to-run consistency, the only problem is, that run-to-run consistency amongst each model continues to disagree with one another. We…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/snowy-weekend-ahead-or-not/
Feb 11
A developing weather situation warrants our attention tonight and that’s the potential of a snow event Valentine’s Day. The Canadian has led the way with this system and other forecast model data is beginning to follow it’s lead, slowly, but surely :-).
While we have time to continue to fine tune things, the trend is certainly one for the snowier over the past 12 hours. That’s not saying we have complete agreement amongst all forecast models, but the overall pattern is one that has to at least raise an eye brow for accumulating snow potential across central Indiana Friday.
A clipper system will dive southeast out of Canada and into the Dakotas Thursday. It’ll race southeast through the Plains states and into Missouri as early as Friday before tracking into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys’ Saturday morning. Clipper systems can always be challenging to track, but especially during the late winter and spring months. The combination of lingering winter chill and the resurgent spring warmth can turn what may seem like a “harmless” wet snow event into a full-blown snow storm with little warning if one’s not paying attention. That’s not saying this is the case with this particular event, but it is saying we have a close eye on things. This will come on the front end of a brief, but significant, pattern change that will promote warmer than normal conditions across the region next week. The tight thermal gradient can essentially help fuel this system as it moves southeast (whether or not this makes “the turn” and adds to the snow pack along the East Coast is yet to be seen). Temperatures Saturday may approach 50 degrees across southwest Missouri Friday while here, across the “snow fields” of central Indiana, we remain locked in the 20s.
For now we’ll refrain from hoisting snowfall potential, but suggest you keep a close eye on the Friday and Saturday forecast and plan for the likelihood of at least some accumulation. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/11/o-canada/
Feb 11
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Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
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-12/ 1 |
0/ 27 |
9/ 36 |
22/ 30 |
12/ 28 |
14/ 29 |
25/ 39 |
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0.00” |
0.00″ |
0.00” |
1-2” |
1” |
0.00″ |
0.50” |
Forecast Updated 02.11.14 @ 8:00a
Bitterly Cold Start…Take a look at the 8a central Indiana weather roundup, courtesy of the National Weather Service:
INZ030>032-037>040-046>048-054>057-064-065-111400- CENTRAL INDIANA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS INDIANAPOLIS MOCLDY -4 -10 75 N3 30.46R -EAGLE CREEK MOCLDY -8 -14 74 NW6 30.46R WCI -21 KOKOMO *+ PTCLDY -20 -26 76 CALM 30.46R MARION + MOCLDY N/A N/A N/A CALM 30.47S MT COMFORT *+ PTCLDY -17 -20 83 CALM 30.46R SHELBYVILLE PTCLDY -9 -15 75 CALM 30.47R ZIONSVILLE + PTCLDY -15 -22 71 CALM 30.46R
This just makes me shiver! We note temperatures as low as 16 degrees below zero reported at Zionsville this morning just after 7 o’clock. Today will be another brutally cold day, but sunshine will prevail. Arctic high pressure will remain anchored over our region and result in another bitterly cold night tonight, but not as cold as it was last night/ this morning.
Midweek Moderation…We’ll begin to get into a westerly and southwesterly air flow Wednesday into Thursday in advance of our next snow maker. While temperatures will remain below average levels, it’ll feel nice to go above freezing Thursday, albeit briefly. Gusty southwest winds could offset the relatively milder feel Thursday, as gusts may approach 25-30 MPH by afternoon.
Meanwhile, a major winter storm will impact the Deep South and result in heavy snow and ice accumulations. My old stomping ground of Johnson County, TN will likely accumulate 7-10″ of heavy, wet snow Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Tracking Two Snow Systems…We continue to have a couple questions around two snow makers Friday and Saturday. The Canadian forecast model remains most aggressive in snow production, delivering a full-blown snow storm Friday with 4-6″ totals while the GFS suggests we struggle to accumulate 1″ Friday. We’re continuing to go with a blend between the two, and side with the European model for now. This would suggest 1-2″ of snow Friday followed by another fast moving clipper system Saturday that could deposit another 1″, or so. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the Friday-Saturday forecast.
Milder Air, But Wet…Our next storm system will move in Monday and looks to primarily be a rain maker. Who thought highs approaching 40 (seasonal levels) would feel warm?! After this brutally cold winter, it’ll feel just that!
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/11/tracking-late-week-snow/
Feb 10
With a deep snow pack in place, calm winds, clear skies, and arctic high pressure settling over head tonight, the stage is set for a record breaking cold night. In fact, the coldest air in the country will settle over eastern MN, WI, and down into central IL and IN tonight. We note latest forecast data suggesting some air temperatures tonight “not fit for man nor beast…” Both the RAP and HRRR forecast lows in the city to plummet to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero. Note the graphics below aren’t even extended until the 7-8 o’clock time period, or normally the coldest time of the morning when official lows typically take place.
While our official low isn’t forecast at 20 below zero, we do forecast an official low in the city at 12 degrees below zero and note many outlying areas may flirt with 15-20 degrees below zero by morning. Certainly, a brutal night is ahead with arctic high pressure settling in…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/core-of-coldest-air-settles-over-central-indiana-tonight/
Feb 10
After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.
Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.
Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.
You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/
Feb 09
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Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
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-1/ 12 |
-12/ 15 |
0/ 27 |
10/ 37 |
19/ 24 |
3/ 25 |
20/ 34 |
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0.00” |
0.00″ |
0.00” |
0.00” |
1-2” |
1” |
0.00” |
Forecast Updated: 02.10.14 @ 5:05p
Bitterly Cold Air To Begin The New Work Week…A fresh batch of bitterly cold air settled into the Hoosier state overnight and is ready to greet us “smack dab in the face” on the way out the door. We call this “ouch cold.” Additionally, winds will remain gusty this morning and result in wind chill values as cold as 20-30 degrees below zero Monday. Normally, this would be a huge deal, but seems to be “just another day” during the snowy and bitterly cold winter of 2013-2014.
As the arctic high moves overhead tonight into Tuesday morning, we’ll experience the coldest air of the week, bottoming out anywhere from 7 to 14 degrees below zero across the snowy central Indiana landscape. Officially, we’re forecasting 9 below to begin the day Tuesday for Indianapolis.
Midweek Moderation…Though we’ll remain below seasonal levels straight through the forecast period, we’ll notice a moderating feel to the air mass by the middle of the week. The relatively milder air may be offset by strong and gusty winds blowing from the southwest Thursday in advance of our next weather maker. Some concern will be there for blowing and drifting snow of the existing snow pack Thursday for the open country.
Monitoring Late Week…Forecast models continue to suggest we’ll deal with our next winter weather maker towards late week, but we caution timing and the precise track of the low pressure system will have to be fine tuned as we go through the week. At this extremely early stage in the game, it does appear as if an accumulating snow will occur with this system in the Friday-Saturday time period. Stay tuned.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/09/another-bitterly-cold-air-mass/
Feb 08
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Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
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5/ 24 |
16/ 28 |
-1/ 16 |
– 9/ 12 |
– 3/ 26 |
8/ 34 |
23/ 33 |
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0.50” |
1-2″ |
0.00” |
0.00” |
0.00” |
Dusting” |
1” |
Forecast Updated 02.08.14 @ 8:49a
Weekend Snow…While we’re not looking at a significant storm system this weekend, we’ll deal with waves of accumulating snow through the period. A period of light snow will continue today, especially through early afternoon and then we’ll note renewed snow developing to our west this evening. This area of snow is in response to additional upper level energy moving off the Rockies and will slide into central Indiana late tonight into Sunday. Finally, there’s the chance portions of central and south-central Indiana see a third wave of light snow Sunday night into early Monday morning. By the time all is said and done, we’re anticipating 1.5″ to 2″ of snow this weekend for most, with a few 3″ reports where snow persists. It’ll be a cold weekend, but nothing as bitter as the past few days have been.
Another Arctic Blast…A sprawling arctic high will settle into the Ohio Valley to open the work week. This will supply dry weather, but yet another bitterly cold air mass. We’ll note below zero overnight lows and highs only in the teens under mostly clear conditions.
Some Questions Around Late Week…Model data is in disagreement with the handling of the southern and northern streams of the jet late next week. As of now, we’re siding with a “middle of the road” approach and introducing snow showers into your forecast Thursday into Friday. The possibilities range anywhere from an accumulating snow event to dry skies with moderating temperatures. Stay tuned.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/08/a-snowy-weekend-on-tap/
