Nov 09

Closer Look At Saturday!

Happy college football Saturday!  Here’s a quick post before the fun begins this afternoon!  War Eagle!

Today will be a beautiful day, albeit windy.  Winds will gust out of the southwest up to 30 MPH at times. Partly cloudy skies are on tap as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, courtesy of that mild southwest air flow.

Enjoy the warmth while you have it, as the next 7 days will be MUCH colder than average.  By Tuesday, highs will remain in the 30s with AM light snow. Overnight lows by Wednesday morning?  How do the lower 20s sound?

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_16

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/09/closer-look-at-saturday/

Nov 08

Closer Look At Friday

*Your full forecast for the week ahead can be found below this post.

We’re starting the day off with cold and frosty conditions. Most are waking up to the middle to upper 20s with a heavy frost.

hrrr_t2m_min_indy_3

With lots of sunshine, highs today will moderate, but remain well below normal, reaching the lower 50s for many.  Cooler air will reside northeast of Indy, noted by the high-resolution HRRR showing upper 40s for afternoon highs.

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_16

A warm front will blow through the region this afternoon with an increase in evening cloudiness and a wind shift to the south tonight. This will lead to a milder night tonight and is only a prelude to what will be a very windy Saturday, despite warmer air in place.

hrrr_uv10m_slp_indy_16

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/08/closer-look-at-friday/

Nov 07

Friday Forecast: Cold Start To The Day!

Updated 11.07.13 @ 10:47p

Zionsville, IN Strong northwest winds are howling in the open country this evening and creating downright cold conditions out. Temperatures in the lower 30s are combining with a northwest wind gusting to 20 MPH to create wind chills in the lower to middle 20s tonight.  Certainly bundle up if plans take you out tonight!

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 50

A reinforcing shot of chilly air blew into the state Thursday night and is leading to another cold start to the day.  Look for a sun-filled Friday to help boost temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 56

Low pressure will race through the northern Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon. This will help drag a dry front through the region Saturday night, but the majority of Saturday we’ll enjoy milder, southwesterly winds.  Saturday can be expected the pick of the 7-day outlook with dry skies and mild temperatures.  We’ll note a gusty southwest breeze during the afternoon, especially in the open country.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 50

We’ll enjoy another dry and sunny day Sunday though it’ll be several degrees cooler when compared to the first half of the weekend.  The reason?  A northerly flow behind the dry frontal boundary that’ll be drug through central Indiana Saturday evening.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55

While dry conditions will be in place Monday, we’ll have our eyes pointed north bound as an early season arctic air mass gets ready to descend upon the Ohio Valley and Mid West…

 

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: AM light snow; PM scattered snow showers (dusting to 1″); 27/ 35

A strong cold front will plunge south and move through the Hoosier state Tuesday.  Behind the front, a huge arctic high will sink south out of Canada and help unseasonably cold air to settle over the area for mid week.  As the front moves through Tuesday morning, light rain will quickly mix with and change to light snow. Some light accumulations of snow can be expected.  Then, as we move into the afternoon, “system” generated snow will diminish and give way to scattered afternoon snow showers.  There is a chance portions of the state, particularly the northern snow belt, deals with some lake effect snow bands Tuesday.  Just how far south these snow bands make it will have to be fine tuned as we draw closer.  Stay tuned.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Mostly sunny; 21/ 37

We’ll keep a close eye on things, but latest data tonight suggests that strong area of high pressure overwhelms the region and results in unseasonably cold, but dry weather for the middle of next week.

 

Status-weather-clouds-icon  Thursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 48

Moderating temperatures will ensue Thursday as we get back into a    southwesterly flow of air.  That said, temperatures will remain below average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/07/friday-forecast-cold-start-to-the-day/

Nov 06

Thursday Forecast: Eyeing Snow Next Week?

Updated 11.06.13 @ 10:26p Zionsville, IN For the most part, rainfall totals today have been under what model guidance suggested.  For an area still wetter than normal, that’s not a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/06/thursday-forecast-eyeing-snow-next-week/

Nov 06

Keeping An Eye On Next Week Closely…

  • Filed under snow

  • November 6, 2013

We continue to monitor the middle of next week closely, as forecast models are beginning to get into better agreement.  While we’re confident that we turn much colder (at least…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/06/keeping-an-eye-on-next-week-closely/

Nov 05

Wednesday Forecast: Rainy Midweek

Updated 11.05.13 @ 3:43p

Zionsville, IN Clouds are hanging tough this afternoon and rain isn’t too far off. Rain will increase Wednesday, becoming widespread the second half of the day. MUCH colder air will then blow into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconWednesday: Rain likely (0.55); 34/ 58

Wednesday will feature another gloomy day with rain overspreading the region from west to east. Scattered showers will be present through the morning hours before giving way to steadier, heavier rainfall during the second half of the day. Latest data suggests the cold front is speeding up from the last forecast update and this should result in a FROPA (frontal passage) Wednesday night. It’ll also be a windy day, with southwest gusts of 25-30 MPH during the day, shifting to the northwest Wednesday night.  Colder air will pour into the state behind the front, setting up a chilly, blustery Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 33/ 47

A blustery northwest wind will blow Thursday and combine with a partly cloudy sky and an unseasonable chill to create a rather cold day. Winds will gust upwards of 20 MPH from time to time.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 30/ 51

A hard freeze will greet us as we prepare to wrap up the work week. Widespread lows around 30 will be commonplace before partly cloudy skies help temperatures rise into the lower 50s Friday afternoon.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy; 40 Sat, 36 Sunday/ lower to middle 50s

High pressure will remain in control of our weather Saturday.  While a weak storm system will pass through the upper Great Lakes region, it’ll remain well north of our area. Southwest breezes could gust up to 20 MPH Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, we’re looking at some mid and high level cloudiness and middle 50s Saturday afternoon and lower 50s Sunday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 50

Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions will greet us as we kick off the new work week.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Scattered shower (0.10); 36/ 50

The early look at next week shows more questions than answers.  For now we forecast scattered showers as our next weather system approaches from the west, but we caution this is a low-confidence forecast.  Be sure to stay tuned as we update things moving forward.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/wednesday-forecast-rainy-midweek/

Nov 05

Wet Pattern Continues

While the midday model data continues to flip flop on the temperature outcome next week, one thing seems rather likely and that’s the idea we remain in a pattern that will produce significant rainfall over the next 10 days.

Let’s take a look at the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM (Canadian) for precipitation amounts over the next 7-10 days.

gfs_tprecip_conus2_65cmc_precip_by10_conus_1ecmwf_precip_10_conus_41

Model data paints a wet picture of widespread 1.5″-2″+ type rainfall totals over the upcoming 7-10 day period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/wet-pattern-continues/

Nov 05

Two Totally Different Solutions For Next Week!

I wanted to quickly post on two totally different scenarios for next week.  Two of the more powerful forecast models we use to look into the mid-long range are in separate worlds when it comes to the weather pattern the middle to latter part of next week.

Here’s a look at the GFS upper air pattern:

gfs_z500_sig_east_38

Note the eastern ridging which would lead to well above normal temperatures during the middle to latter part of next week (by as much as 10 degrees above average), along with dry conditions.

HOWEVER, here’s a look at the European’s forecast upper air pattern late next week:

ecm_z500_anom_east_11

This would certainly be quite the significant storm for the Northeast, but the implications here are vastly different from that which the GFS shows above.  Instead of warmth and dry conditions, we’d deal with highs in the middle 30s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s.  Additionally, we’d also “enjoy” (okay, some folks would “enjoy”) snow showers and snow squalls the middle to latter portion of next week, as noted per the European below, including a lake Michigan connection.

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_36

 

Needless to say, we have a lot to sort out in the coming days.  We’ll be here to do just that.  Make it a great Tuesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/two-totally-different-solutions-for-next-week/

Nov 04

Thoughts On Winter…

This is the first time since 2002 that I haven’t produced a winter outlook.  Part of the reason behind this is due to the fact that our recent move back from Cleveland, OH to Indianapolis has taken priority.  Moving is always a much bigger chore than you expect originally.  That said, the upcoming winter of 2013-2014 presents quite the challenge when trying to determine what particular player takes control for the “long haul.”  I can’t remember a time when so many variables were at play, presenting quite the headache in trying to determine which one will take the lead.  Ultimately, confidence is lower than normal for the winter forecast.  That said, “confidence” in something 3-4 months out is never considered high. 🙂

Here are just a few items I’m looking at for the upcoming winter:

1. Data is pointing towards a southeast ridge in play for the better part of the upcoming winter.

The strength and precise position of the ridge will go a long way in aiding our weather here in central Indiana.  Southeast ridging isn’t always a bad thing in the winter if you’re a cold and snow fan as storms can’t “escape” harmlessly to our south or east.  That said, should we deal with a strong southeast ridge then we’re looking at a warmer, rainier time of things here as opposed to cold and snowy…

2. Modeling suggesting Nino Region 3.4 warms slightly as we progress through the winter months.

SST_table

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The implications here are interesting when we drill down to the “home front.”  The following data from similar conditions during December-February in Nino Region 3.4 correlate to a few years that will go down in Hoosier snow lovers dreams…

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
  • 1977-1978: 49.7″ of snow, 2nd snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +0.8
  • 2002-2003: 46.9″ of snow, 4th snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +1.2
  • 2009-2010: 32.2″ of snow, 10th snowiest winter on record; Nino Region 3.4: +1.6

3. NAO showing signs of going negative when it matters most?

Labeled as the new “NAO Model everyone is looking for” may, perhaps, be just that.  This formula has already proven to be incredibly accurate in the past.  This was developed by fellow midwestern, Al Marinaro (you can follow him on Twitter at @wxmidwest).  In the past I’ve been one to say it’s incredibly difficult to forecast the NAO beyond 2-3 weeks, but we look at water temperatures this time of year to try and get an idea of what may happen in the coming winter months ahead.  If Mr. Marinaro is on to something (and it appears that he is) that longstanding idea will all change.

Additionally, to the delight of many cold and snow lovers out there, Mr. Marinaro’s formula suggests we’re heading for a predominantly negative NAO this winter.

BXihwRqCIAAtd3d.png-large

 

 

 

 

 

4. The normally “highly variable” CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) monthly run has remained consistent as of late in thinking the east is warmer than normal for meteorological winter.  

It’s amazing how often this model is shown when forecasting cold, but seemingly forgotten when it’s forecasting warmer than normal conditions.

usT2mSeaInd2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/04/thoughts-on-winter/

Nov 03

Monday Forecast: Tracking Another Storm

Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p

Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect!  While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58

The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours.  It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures.  Enjoy!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61

We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconWednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60

A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark).  While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″);  38/ 55 (falling)

The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48

A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55

Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend.  We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday.  Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/03/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/

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