Jun 24

Hot Weekend Coming, But We’re Set To Cool Going Into The Holiday…

The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week.  That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.

In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods.  This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.

In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far.  Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.

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There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.

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The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.

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The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead.  Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3.  Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

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To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +.  The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling.  We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/

Jun 24

Showers, Thunderstorms Expand In Coverage Later Today.

We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours.  So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.

We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.

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The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.

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Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.

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As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening.  We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70.  Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area.  The upper energy will provide the needed lift.  Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.

The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.

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Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.

Interested in personal weather forecasts or consulting for yourself or place of business?  Email us at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/showers-thunderstorms-expand-in-coverage-later-today/

Jun 23

Splash And Dash Storms To Open The Work Week…

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We’re going to open another work week with a similar weather theme- warm and humid with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Best rain chances will arrive after 2 to 3 o’clock and localized torrential downpours are a good bet.  While everyone won’t see impressive rainfall totals, those that get caught under a stronger storm can expect a quick 1″ of rain.  Overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely grow Tuesday, but we still don’t think we’re looking at an all day rain and some sunshine can be expected in between showers and storms.  We’ll enjoy a couple of drier days Wednesday and Thursday along with slightly cooler temperatures before we heat things back up and introduce rain chances heading into your weekend.

Are your or your business interested in personal weather consulting or mid and long range ag forecasts?  Email us: bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/splash-and-dash-storms-to-open-the-work-week/

Jun 22

Feeling Like Summer!

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Though we officially just welcomed in summer, we’ve been in meteorological summer since June 1st.  The meteorological seasons include June through August for summer, September through November for fall, December through February for winter, and March through May for spring.  This week we’ll feel very much like summer, including seasonable temperatures and plenty of rain and storm chances!  Coverage of those showers and thunderstorms will be widely scattered today and Monday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.  While everyone won’t get wet, some locally heavy downpours are possible.  Looking ahead, we target better chances of more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and again Friday. The week ahead stands to be another wet one on the precipitation front, including widespread 1.5″-2″ totals during the course of the upcoming 7 days on average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/feeling-like-summer-2/

Jun 21

Line Of Storms Rumbles In Tonight…

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has formed to our west and this line will push into central Indiana between 8-9 o’clock.  Guidance suggests this line will weaken as…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/line-of-storms-rumbles-in-tonight/