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Jul 01

Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
July 1, 2014

Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.

66/ 86	65/ 77	58/ 73	51/ 76	52/ 80	59/ 83	64/ 87
Light	Light	– – –	– – –	– – –	– – –	Light

While we’re kicking the day off on a more pleasant weather note when compared to that of Monday, we’re still not out of the woods just yet in regards to thunderstorm chances. After a noisy night across the region, another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely this afternoon. Some of the storms could reach severe levels- especially from Indianapolis and points south this afternoon. Large hail and straight line winds are the biggest concerns. We’ll then begin to transition to the much cooler and drier pattern for mid week. A few instability-driven showers may pop Wednesday as cooler air spills into the region. Thursday through Sunday will then feature dry conditions along with unseasonably cool temperatures. We’ll begin to crank the heat and humidity back up early next week.

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Jun 30

More On Tonight’s Severe Threat…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, T-storms
June 30, 2014

As we type this, a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted to include much of northwestern Indiana. The concern is that the complex of storms, already responsible for damaging weather across Iowa, gains steam as it plows east and intensifies this evening.

There’s no doubt in overall thinking that northern Indiana is at greatest risk for damaging severe weather later this evening and overnight, but we do have some concern that areas further south aren’t out of the woods. Is there risk at being wrong in the further south idea? Absolutely. However, a look over the latest model data continues to suggest there’s plenty of moisture and fuel readily available. Additionally, similar thunderstorm complexes have been known to “hook” south as they intensify racing east and short-term modeling has been known to have to play catch up at the very end in some particular cases. That’s not something we want to play around with tonight, given what the potential is. Will potential become reality here across central Indiana? Big question at the moment, but one can’t be too careful with this particular situation as a rather widespread damaging wind event should expand in the coming hours. Nowcasting will be key. Should central Indiana get in on the stormy action it would be late this evening and overnight- midnight-ish, and after, for most.

Our best educated projection at this juncture would place north-central Indiana (a line from Crawfordsville to Muncie) and points north under the greatest risk for potential severe weather late tonight. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with this complex tonight. Know that we’ll keep a close eye on things moving forward and suggest setting the weather radio on alert mode before heading off to bed this evening. As always, have a means to get watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-tonights-severe-threat/

Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, HRRR, NAM Model, Severe Weather, T-storms
June 30, 2014

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today. The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex. Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL. All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana. Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region. In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region. Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening. The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state. While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region. More later this afternoon!

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Jun 29

Storm Chances Remain Before We Turn Much Cooler…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
June 29, 2014

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Independence Day Sat. 70/ 83 72/ 88 72/ 85 63/ 78 59/ 74 51/ 77 54/ 82 Light…

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Jun 28

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Hail, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
June 28, 2014

Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Independence Day

69/ 83	70/ 83	71/ 88	70/ 84	60/ 75	56/ 76	53/ 80
Light	Light	Light	Light	– – –	– – –	– – –

A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north. Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity. We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday. Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail. For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand). We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/