A combination of ingredients are coming together to offer up the potential of heavy rain for portions of the region this weekend.
An approaching cold front will drop slowly southeast out of the Plains while a tropical low moves inland from the central Gulf Coast.
The precise placement of the front will serve as the focal point for heavy weekend rains. As we’d expect from this distance, modeling disagrees on the all-important specifics. Using a model blend, central Indiana is on the table for heavy late week-weekend rain as of now. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will be above 2″ and suggest the threat of torrential downpours, including localized flash flooding across the Ohio Valley. Eventually, the cold front will sweep the tropical-rich moisture away from the region and cooler, much less humid air will press in by this time next week.
We still have time to watch the evolution of things play out as we progress through mid week. Stay tuned as we “sure-up” the details and hone in on the area where heavy rain is likely.