I. High pressure will dominate the early part of the work week, helping to supply plentiful sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. We’ll continue to enjoy the much-needed dry theme the weekend ended on!
II. Our next weather maker will arrive midweek and provide a few showers Wednesday (not a huge deal from a precipitation perspective). However, as a deepening surface low tracks into the Great Lakes Thursday morning, a period of heavier rain and even thunder is possible. In general, this looks like a 0.50″ to 1.00″ type event.
III. Somewhat cooler air will whip in behind the low, allowing leftover precipitation to end as a couple wet snowflakes across the northern half of the state Friday morning. The bigger story will be the “bumpy” start to Friday with strong and gusty north winds.
IV. High pressure returns for the weekend and with it will come a return of sunny skies. Though the mornings will be frosty, afternoon temperatures will “warm” to pleasant levels, especially with the increasingly strong early-March sun angle.
V. Looking ahead, let’s keep a close eye on the second week of March. Potential is present for a stormy period to emerge under the block. We note the GEFS and EPS (respective ensembles of the GFS and European models) are in relative agreement on a stormy, cold look during this time frame. While far too early for specifics, the potential is there for a rather widespread wintry event from the Plains into the Northeast.
