Updated 02.09.23 @ 8:53p
After a bitter Christmas period, the “snap back” came on with authority. The mild start to the year has carried into February. A look at the past (30) days:
Despite multiple attempts, the cold “jabs” haven’t had any staying power. In the short term (upcoming 10-14 days), an overall milder than normal regime will carry the day.
With that said, longer range teleconnections are providing clues that the pattern may, indeed, begin to resemble a more sustained colder than normal temperature regime by late February, continuing through the bulk of March:
Negative NAO:
Negative WPO:
Negative AO:
Negative EPO:
Then, perhaps most significant, the MJO is showing signs of cycling in Phase 8 to close February and open March.
Both periods feature a cold, to much colder than normal, pattern in Phase 8:
MJO Phase 8: Feb
MJO Phase 8: March
Perhaps the latest European Weeklies for late Feb through late March are onto the correct idea…
