Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.
Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning. While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself. While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.
Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself. Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain. From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.
All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter. Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc. This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure. Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute. Stay safe.
