The majority of longer range models are bullish on a much warmer than normal month of March. Below you’ll see a snap shot of the latest JMA Weeklies, European Weeklies, and CFSv2. All are in relative agreement on a warm open to meteorological spring.
The other common theme? Strong signals for wetter, to much wetter, than normal conditions.
Note the first image of the JMA Weekly data is also leaning in the direction of wetter than normal conditions.
Indianapolis March “averages” include a low of 32.8°, a high of 51.7°, 3.56″ of rain, and 2.6″ of snow.
We’re leaning in the direction of a warmer than normal, wetter than normal month, as well. The reason? You guessed it- a predominantly positive EPO and the MJO that’s expected to rumble primarily through the warmer phases for this time of year.
We’ll tackle the latter first. Note the latest MJO plot takes things through Phases 4-5. Those are notorious warm phases in March as shown by the composite 500mb analogs below.
While the MJO plot above only goes out to mid-month, there are reasons to believe things won’t get into the cold phases and that we should cycle back into the warmer phases, or potentially remain in the “null” phase.
We’ll, of course, have to monitor the EPO for negative “jabs” that may try and take place, but think we’re looking at a predominantly positive EPO throughout the month. Additionally, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) looks to also remain predominantly positive and this is also a warm signal for this time of year.
Accordingly, we’re leaning towards a warm, yet wet open to meteorological spring, including temperatures that should run 1° to 3° above normal across central Indiana.
