Updated 02.25.22 @ 5a
As another wintry event comes to an end, most Hoosiers are ready for spring. As we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks, there are signs that at least a “taste” of spring awaits. But, as is typically the case, there are contradicting signals.
The consensus from our big player teleconnections would suggest a warm-up (compared to normal) in the 5-10 day period, but note that the trends are favorable for cooler than normal temperatures thereafter.
Ensemble guidance shows the transition over the upcoming couple weeks.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) argues that eastern warmth should come back with a vengeance towards mid-March after the potential of a brief cooler setback. We note guidance is in better alignment taking things into Phase 5 and that should result in an expanding eastern ridge between the 10th and 15th.
The JMA Week 2 500mb pattern looks pretty good to me based on the MJO activity. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air is likely to dump into the West and we’ll have ti monitor thing the pattern drivers closely once passed mid-month for the possibility of colder air to ooze east.
The transitional theme to the overall pattern should promote wetter than normal conditions over the upcoming 14-16 days as a whole.
