Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
