Quick update this morning, but a more extensive discussion will hit the site later this afternoon/ evening.
An initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through central Indiana this morning as a warm front crosses the state. After morning storms rumble through central Indiana the majority of the day will be rain-free and turn downright hot and muggy. An oppressive feel to the air will develop this afternoon as dew points rise into the 70s. We’ll then target another (more widespread and intense) outbreak of severe weather late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a moderate risk of severe weather today:
The ingredients are in place for a significant severe weather episode later tonight…
Big picture overview:
An autumn-like cold front will slice into a very warm, humid, and unstable air mass Sunday. Individual disturbances out ahead of the cold front will combine with ingredients listed below to potentially lead to a rather widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak tonight.
Additionally, short term model data forecasts…
- CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy and an ingredient of what helps fuel a thunderstorm) to reach 4000-5000 J/kg. Anything over 2000 is enough to lead to strong storms should other factors be in place.
- Dew points to climb into the lower and middle 70s.
- Precipitable water to reach 2.5″ (suggests a flash flood threat and local microburst potential)
The greatest concern has to do with the potential of a widespread damaging wind event late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday, but concern is also present that a couple of super cells could develop in advance of the more widespread complex of storms. Within these super cells, an opportunity is there for large hail and a tornado potential and we’ll closely monitor this as well.
Much more later this afternoon!