What a weather year this has been for central Indiana. Snow and cold translated to wet and stormy as winter turned to spring. Now as summer rumbles into the supposed “dog days” we’re really left with the exact opposite. Our weather pattern will be dominated by a fast moving northwest flow over the upcoming (7) days and this spells an active and stormy open to the work week and next weekend, with an “island” of cool, pleasant weather thrown in the mix Wednesday through Friday.
The GFS operational run shows that we’ll remain locked into the rather active northwest flow pattern through the upcoming week. Note that while the trough axis moves east with time, the northwest flow remains intact.
There’s excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and EC, as well.
The end result is a (7) day stretch that remains cooler than normal when all added up, highlighted by the cooler punch of air (worthy of open windows yet again) Wed-Fri.
This also remains quite the active pattern in regards to thunderstorm complexes and rounds of locally heavy rainfall. We bracket late tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, followed by next weekend for possible storm complexes that will make for a rather noisy time of things here. As for the severe threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on each complex. It’s possible one or two of these could pose a damaging wind threat as they race southeast and that’s our biggest concern as of now.
When you total it all up, the upcoming (7) day period, July 7th-14th, is likely to lead to more significant rainfall over the region. The Canadian isn’t holding back, suggesting widespread 2-3″ totals. That may be a bit “bullish,” but we’ll forecast 1.5″-2″ with ease during the upcoming week, including locally heavier totals.
Quick summary:
Monday through Tuesday will be highlighted by rainy and stormy periods before we introduce a much cooler and drier regime Wednesday through Friday. Humidity builds over the upcoming weekend with additional rain and thunderstorm chances returning.