Updated 12.22.23 @ 7:15a
We open the period with widespread milder than normal temperatures in the 1-6 day period. Greatest anomalies are centered over the upper Midwest. Note the step down to a pattern, locally, that’s more seasonable if not slightly cooler than normal to close the year and open 2024. That’s the emphasis we want to drive home- though turning colder, we’re not in the camp that our immediate region will have to deal with any sort of arctic air anytime soon.
You know we’ll be keeping close eyes on the Madden Julian Oscillation over the next few days. Should the American guidance come to fruition, then a warmer pattern is certainly alive and kicking after the cooler pattern to open January. Interestingly this morning, early trends are more in favor of the European camp, but it’s still early and we’ll need to monitor closely through the Christmas holiday.
In the shorter term, morning showers will transition to more of a widespread light rain across the northern half of the state later this afternoon and tonight. Some northern Indiana rain gauges could surpass 0.50″ during this time period from “round 1” of more widespread rain.
Pesky light showers will be around Saturday, but this will be more of a nuisance than anything else. Widespread measurable rain isn’t anticipated. We then flip the calendar to Christmas Eve and the forecast continues to improve. We even anticipate some sunshine to couple with the unseasonably mild air and breezy southerly winds. Highs approaching 60° can be expected as Santa loads up his sleigh.
More widespread rain arrives Christmas Day, especially by late morning and during the afternoon. This is the timeframe when we expect greatest coverage and heaviest rainfall rates of the period. Storm total rainfall of 0.50″ to 1″ still looks like a good bet.
Colder air works in behind the storm and left over “wrap around” precipitation will begin to mix with and change to snow Thursday.
The downhill slide to more seasonable and slightly colder than normal temperatures continues as we close out the year…
