It’s a new day, but unfortunately, there isn’t really any significant change with respect to the overall clarity of the first half of November- at least from a temperature perspective. On the other hand, we remain supremely confident on the return of a “busy” pattern from a precipitation stand point.
With the 12z update, the European ensemble data remains the colder solution when compared to its counterpart (GEFS) in the medium to long range period- or Days 10-15
With that said, data does agree on the more active and wetter than average pattern continuing (from now) through the period.
We’ll continue to look over the data this weekend to see if agreement can be reached on temperatures between the various modeling and update things accordingly. As things stand now, we still anticipate a “pull back” in the anomalous chill around the mid month time frame, but stay tuned. As the mean trough axis transitions into the central portion of the country, the more active storm track up through the Ohio Valley should continue.