Updated 07.14.23 @ 10:34a
After a rare triple dip La Niña, significant changes have taken place in the equatorial Pacific this past spring and summer. The question isn’t “if” we’re dealing with an El Niño this fall and winter, but rather what type, or “flavor” of Nino we get to enjoy.
(A quick piece of advice for anyone viewing winter outlooks that are being published ridiculously early: be skeptical to any sources “broad-brushing” the outlook by labeling it simply as an “El Nino winter”).
Like we say with every seasonal outlook it seems, each Nina, Nino, or even neutral events have their own characteristics. No single event is identical. While we can gain valuable insights that can help build the foundation of what lies ahead through looking back at the past, undoubtedly, every year will have a few surprises. It’s our job to try and limit those surprises the best we can. 😉
A look at the current sea surface temperature (SST) configuration shows the warmest anomalies tucked in to Nino 3 and Nino 1+2.
Simply put, if this look continues this fall and into the early winter, it’s a warm to very warm signal for winter, locally.
The million dollar question is how the early stages of this Nino evolves in the coming weeks and next few months. There’s reason to believe there’s a chance this transitions into more of a central based, or “Modoki” El Niño event by winter. If that’s the case, we’ll have to up the ante for colder, more wintry conditions.
(You can read more about Modoki El Niño events here).
While still a bit early to put too much stock in any of the seasonal products for winter, it is interesting to see how the latest European seasonal model is trending as we move into the Nov through Jan timeframe below.
Stay tuned. We’ll really begin to firm up preliminary meteorological winter (Dec through Feb) thoughts over the course of the next couple months.