Category: Wintry Mix

Updated 01.03.24 @ 5:21p

Today’s 12z guidance continues to reflect quite an active and stormy period of weather kicking off this weekend, continuing through mid-January. This is a byproduct of all of the high latitude blocking that develops over the span of the next 6-10 days.

The negative PNA is putting a real wrench in any one of these “meaningful” area of low pressure systems, Saturday’s excluded, from being totally on the wintry side. Look for above normal precipitation over the upcoming 6-10 days with plenty of mixing events going on.

Speaking of that, we don’t have any changes to our thoughts on the first two systems:

Saturday- light snow should overspread the region through the morning hours with light accumulation, primarily on grassy and elevated surfaces. We’ll firm up snow numbers over the next 24 hours. Note, additional light snow, potentially mixed with light rain, should fall Saturday night into Sunday as upper level energy scoots across the state.

Monday night/ Tuesday- after a calm open to the work week, clouds will increase Monday PM and give way to a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow across the state Monday night into Tuesday morning. As warm air advection kicks into high gear, the wintry mix will transition to a cold rain for central and southern IN. Further north, it’s a tougher call with mixing issues hanging on longer. Heavy precipitation and strong/ gusty winds can be expected Tuesday. We all turn colder Tuesday night with rain transitioning back to wind-whipped snow/ snow showers that will continue Wednesday with additional light accumulation expected.

Wednesday night/ Friday- another potential significant area of low pressure will impact the region during this particular time period with additional heavy precipitation (likely another mixed bag event) and strong winds.

The initial dump of bitterly cold, arctic, air will target the West through the 6-10 day period before making an attempt to bleed east (likely in modified fashion) during this period. Per our longer range discussions, the MJO will have the primary say in our late January pattern and we’ll have fresh long range thoughts posted prior to week’s end.

Make it a great evening!