Updated 02.05.21 @ 4:19p
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Category: Wintry Mix
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/05/video-tracking-multiple-winter-weather-makers-over-the-upcoming-7-10-days/
Feb 01
02.01.21 Weather Bulletin: The Arctic Hounds Come Calling…
Updated 02.01.21 @ 6:34p
Bottom Drops Out Early Next Week…Brief high pressure will build overhead through the next 24 to 48 hours and supply a return of sunshine. We may still have a few light flurries around through the early afternoon Tuesday, but the story over the next couple of days will be improving weather, albeit still chilly.
Our next storm system will approach Wednesday night and Thursday in the form of a cold front. Precipitation should arrive Thursday morning as a cold rain (might start as a brief wintry mix, but this shouldn’t be a big deal). The cold front will then sweep through the state Friday morning. Highs will likely take place during the predawn hours with falling temperatures through the day. Any lingering morning precipitation should exit stage right relatively quickly.
Things become much more interesting over the weekend as a couple of arctic fronts sweep across the region. The first front will feature vigorous upper level energy and will likely result in a period of snow. The second front will really drop the “arctic hammer” and not only lead to the coldest air we’ve seen in quite some time, but a continuation of snow chances into early next week.
We’ll keep a close eye on the development of things for the weekend. With arctic air getting involved, it’ll likely maximize any available moisture and a couple of seemingly rather “harmless” snow events could turn into over-achievers as we grow closer. I’d keep close tabs on the weekend forecast.
Bitter air will pour into the region early next week, including dangerously cold wind chill values. Those with ag/ livestock interests should be prepared to make adjustments for the severe cold.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/01/02-01-21-weather-bulletin-the-arctic-hounds-come-calling/
Jan 27
01.27.21 Weather Bulletin: Snow Builds In This Afternoon For The Southern Half Of The State; Keeping Close Eyes On The Weekend…
Updated 01.27.21 @ 7:51a
No Rest For The Weary…A fast moving area of low pressure will scoot east this afternoon and evening. This will spread a swath of light to moderate snow across the southern half of the state in the 1p (west) to midnight (exiting southeastern portions of the state) window. While still primarily a light event, models have “beefed up” snow amounts ever so slightly with this system over the past 24 hours. Our snowfall forecast for system #1 can be found below.
Colder air will pour in for all during the overnight and should be just enough to kick up some lake-generated scattered snow shower activity into Thursday morning.
Weak high pressure will then build in and supply a sunny close to the work week. You enjoy the sun and briefly quieter weather and let us worry about the weekend!
Speaking of the weekend, this is the period that continues to look increasingly likely to produce the most impactful winter storm of the season for our immediate area. We forecast early sun to quickly give way to a lowering and thickening cloud canopy Saturday (the sky will have the looks of a snow storm brewing by lunch for most). Precipitation will then overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. The potential is there for a heavy wet snow thump Saturday PM before precipitation transitions to a wintry mix as low pressure scoot by just to our south. Before that transition, “several” inches of wet snow is looking increasingly likely. As colder air wraps back around into the region, wrap-around moisture will fall as light snow and snow showers into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/27/01-27-21-weather-bulletin-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-for-the-southern-half-of-the-state-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-weekend/
Jan 26
01.26.21 Weather Bulletin: Shot Of Southern Light Snow; Bigger Weekend Event?
Updated 01.26.21 @ 8:09a
Socked In…Low clouds and areas of drizzle will remain with us for the better part of the day. As colder air filters back in this evening, a few flurries may mix with the drizzle as the moisture departs.
Our attention will then shift to upper level energy that will race east Wednesday and Wednesday night. This feature will skirt the southern portion of the state and squeeze out some light snow Wednesday afternoon and early evening. “Light” is the key word, but places from Vincennes over to Madison and points south could accumulate around an inch of snow. A dusting to half an inch may make it as far north as Bloomington and surrounding areas, but the lack of moisture, combined with forward momentum with this system will make it tough to get anything meaningful for most of the region.
Colder air will filter into the state Wednesday night and should be enough to fire up scattered snow showers for all into Thursday morning. Sunshine will return Friday (the “calm before the (bigger) storm”).
Saturday may open with early morning sunshine, but clouds will quickly thicken up and lower as low pressure heads this direction out of the central Plains. An overrunning event will ensue by Saturday afternoon. With cold air still entrenched, we’re talking about a big ole mix bag of sleet and snow to begin. This will require close attention as models have been trending colder as of late and the flavor of our weekend forecast will follow suit. The potential is there for several inches of snow/ sleet Saturday before precipitation possibly ends as drizzle Sunday morning. For now (especially given how the snow season has gone thus far) we’ll bracket for the possibility of 1″-3″, but just know this system has an upside. 🙂
Colder air will whip in here Sunday afternoon and Monday with wrap-around moisture ending as snow and snow showers. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/26/01-26-21-weather-bulletin-shot-of-southern-light-snow-bigger-weekend-event/
Jan 25
Evening VIDEO: “Active” Would Be An Understatement Into Early February…
Updated 01.25.21 @ 9:35p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/25/evening-video-active-would-be-an-understatement-into-early-february/
Jan 25
Early Afternoon Update On Today’s Wintry Mix…
Updated 01.25.21 @ 1:42p
After a wintry mix that featured everything (and the kitchen sink ;-)) during the onset has predominantly transitioned over to sleet and freezing rain across immediate central Indiana. Look for this to continue for the next couple of hours before the 1st wave of significant moisture moves east by mid to late afternoon.
As we look forward, another wave of lighter precipitation will target the northern half of the state (especially from Indianapolis and points north) later this evening into Tuesday morning. Though precipitation should be lighter with this next wave, the concern is that it may still fall as “frozen” (sleet) or “freezing” (rain) during this time period, especially from the northern Indianapolis suburbs and points north as temperatures look to hover around, or just below, the freezing mark through the evening. The difference of just 1° truly will make a world of difference of the associated impacts regarding travel tonight and early Tuesday morning north of the city. You can see how high resolution guidance keeps the sub-freezing air locked in place just north of Indianapolis tonight.
For our clients in the salting and snow removal business, plan to remain busy during the overnight across the northern half of the state as this next wave of moisture moves in. An additional .10 to .25 (liquid equivalent) can be expected for central Indiana with liquid equivalent amounts of .25 to .50 across the northern 1/3 of the state.
More on this and what lies ahead for midweek in our evening video update. Stay safe out there, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/25/early-afternoon-update-on-todays-wintry-mix/
Jan 22
01.22.21 Weather Bulletin: Cold Weekend; Messy Open To The New Week Ahead…
Updated 01.22.21 @ 9:20a
Focus Is On Next Week…The 1st half of the weekend is easy as high pressure builds into the area, supplying a fresh batch of cold, dry air. Enjoy the sun while you’ve got it. (Don’t anticipate much in the vitamin D department next week). Saturday morning will be very cold (middle 10s for most with single digit ‘chills).
Clouds will thicken up Saturday PM and an initial wave of moisture will arrive into central Indiana Sunday morning. This lead wave of precipitation should be on the light side but with cold air in place, it’ll likely fall as a wintry mix of sleet and potentially freezing rain across the southern half of the state. Where the cold air is a little deeper further north, the predominant precipitation type should take on the form of light snow Sunday morning.
After a potential “lull” Sunday evening, another slug of moisture is inbound Sunday night and Monday. As surface low pressure tracks along the Ohio River during this time frame, this round of precipitation will be heavier and more organized. While this will still require fine tuning, our initial thinking is the form of precipitation will likely fall as the frozen variety across the northern 1/3 of the state with more mixing across immediate central Indiana, and predominantly liquid downstate. We’ll keep a very close eye on the data throughout the weekend, but our initial idea can be found below. Where the precipitation type is predominantly snow, this should be a “plowable” event. Stay tuned.
We’ll have to track another feature by the middle of next week. This could, too, deposit additional wintry conditions across the region, but we need to get through the lead system before trying to get too cute with the mid week feature.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/22/01-22-21-weather-bulletin-cold-weekend-messy-open-to-the-new-week-ahead/
Jan 21
VIDEO: Detailed Breakdown Of Our Latest Thoughts Concerning Next Week…
Updated 01.21.21 @ 8:00a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/21/video-detailed-breakdown-of-our-latest-thoughts-concerning-next-week/
Jan 20
VIDEO: And The “Squeeze Play” Is On…
Updated 01.20.21 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/20/video-and-the-squeeze-play-is-on/
Jan 19
Active Pattern Persists To Close January; Targeting Storm Dates…
Updated 01.19.21 @ 7:58a
Another upper level disturbance will push into Indiana this evening, providing a renewed shot of snow showers after dark, continuing into the overnight hours. Before we look at this and other storm dates of interest, I wanted to review the upcoming couple of weeks from a temperature and precipitation perspective.
While there weren’t a lot of changes overnight with respect to the ensemble guidance from Week 1 to Week 2, it’s fair to say the GEFS and EPS are trending in 2 separate directions- at least across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast Week 2. The theory here is that the differences come from the way the modeling handles the EPO and subsequent downstream ridge resistance. At any rate, confidence remains lower than normal in the 7-14 day period and it’ll likely take another 48-72 hours for things to become clearer during this time frame.
Week 1
I would lean more on the European in the Week 1 timeframe (due to the precipitation pattern with forecasted trough/ ridge positions), though the solutions are similar, overall.
Week 2
Despite the subtle differences, I would lean heavier towards the European solution again (retrograding eastern trough idea).
Storm dates of note include the following:
Jan. 24th-25th
Jan. 27th-28th
Jan. 31st-Feb. 1st
Expect continued wild run-to-run swings on the operational guidance as the data tries to understand the battle between the high latitude blocking (courtesy of the negative AO) and maturing negative PNA (will lead to southern ridging and more resistance as this gets established). These combined ingredients will lead to more of a question of wet vs. white, as opposed to a non-storm “event” that we’re dealing with Thursday-Friday. With the blocking in place, it’ll be tough to drive lows to the Great Lakes and we’ll need to watch for southward trends on guidance the closer we get to these potential storm dates of note above.
In the meantime, we have one more clipper system that will dive into the region this evening. This will offer up yet another round (the last in the series going back to last week) of snow showers after dark into early Wednesday (snow should be out of here by mid to late morning tomorrow). Snowfall accumulations across central Indiana can be expected to fall within the dusting to half inch range.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/19/active-pattern-persists-to-close-january-targeting-storm-dates/