Dec 29
No need for model data or fancy graphs with this post, but instead we just wanted to level set with you on where we think we’re heading as we rumble…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/29/a-word-about-what-lies-ahead/
Dec 29
December has been a warm and wet month for the region. In fact, it’s been so warm, some have labeled this “October in December.” Snow and ice cover…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/29/rambling-around-only-a-couple-days-left-in-2015/
Dec 20
Some are beginning to grow tired of the seemingly unending warmth and lack of snow, particularly with an above normal stretch of weather coming that includes the Christmas holiday (though not nearly as warm as the European suggested as soon as only a few days ago).
Month-to-date, December has been a warmer than normal month for most of the country. Source: Weatherbell.com
Our winter outlook stated we thought we’d get off to a warmer than normal start, but we were also very clear in stating we thought a rather marked shift to more sustained wintry conditions loomed for mid and late winter. That period is drawing closer by the day and it’s time to “put up or shut up.” By “mid winter” we mean mid January. Yes, that means three weeks out. Without holding back any punches, we’re fully expecting a colder than average period developing by then (and with staying power), along with plenty of opportunities for wintry precipitation.
The reasoning for our thinking has been outlined in previous posts and in our winter outlook, but, in short, it’s built on the idea of a weakening El Nino and a mean winter upper air pattern that includes W NA ridging (positive PNA regime). Later in the season, a more sustained negative AO and NAO should establish itself that could carry the wintry regime into meteorological spring.
Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
We think we begin to progress into a “step down” process to the pattern explained above through the early stages of January, and the ensemble data is beginning to support this.
GFS ensembles for early January. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
The modeled W NA ridging is a far cry from what we’ve been dealing with over the past month.
Now we caution that the initial step down to a more sustained wintry pattern won’t occur overnight. We label it “step down” for a reason. All the while, it’s a start in shifting away from the anomalous warmth we’ve been dealing with through the month of December. Initially, cold air will only be marginal, but as things align into the mid/ late winter pattern and we expand snow cover, arctic air will grow in a more widespread fashion. Something else we’ll begin to have to keep a close eye on? A potentially active NW flow that features several clippers plenty capable of producing accumulating snow. We note central-based Ninos are notorious for the clipper parade during the mid and late winter stretch.
In the shorter term, a rather unsettled Christmas week looms. Modeling will continue to “sure up” the handling of a rather complex storm system after Christmas, as well. We note runs that have pumped out copious rain numbers and others that suggest wintry precipitation may fall as the cold upper low ejects northeast. We’ll continue to monitor.
In the meantime, gear up for a rather wet Monday. We think one half inch is a good bet across the area, with locally heavier totals. Our updated 7-day in the morning will be a rather busy one. Talk with you in the AM!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/20/where-we-stand/
Dec 19
Finally, it’s a cold start to the day, and feels like a mid December morning should! Temperatures are running significantly behind where we were across the east this time yesterday.
Highs today will only climb to around freezing across central Indiana. Add in a stiff NW breeze and wind chills will be colder. Grab the coat before heading out to finalize that Christmas shopping.
This cold is coming in the face of what’s been a very warm month. Meteorological winter, as expected, has opened warmer than normal.
By the way, we think changes towards colder loom mid and late January on. That likely carries us into spring this year with winter continuing.
Christmas week is coming into better focus now, and the “blend” of model solutions was, indeed, the best path to take. The European’s blow torch 70 degree idea was laughable. Still warmer than normal, Christmas morning should start in the middle 30s with highs in the upper 40s.
The lead up to Christmas will be an unsettled one after a dry weekend. Moisture returns Monday.
Another surge of moisture comes in advance of a cold front and associated area of low pressure Christmas Eve before colder air oozes in.
Christmas morning opens chilly, but dry, as high pressure is overhead.
Looking ahead, an active close to 2015 appears to be in the cards. Model solutions at this distance have ranged from a major winter storm to a flooding rain threat. We’re not confident on either idea at this point. Without blocking, it’ll be mighty tough to get anything wintry from this storm, and we also note models have been overdoing rainfall totals in the 5-10 day range as of late. That said, is this the storm that can begin to set us up for the expected overall pattern change to winter coming in January?
Note the wild differences between the GFS, GEM, and European for the storm leading up to New Years.
When we turn to the ensembles to attempt to gain a clearer picture of what we can expect, we see they are of no help either.
Are we confident of a storm coming to wrap up 2015? Absolutely, but, again, far less confident on the specifics from this distance. An overall wetter than average pattern is likely, however.
To wrap things up this morning we still note a favorable SST profile for wintry conditions mid and late winter. In other words, hang in there winter fans. 🙂
By the way, a major crash is coming that will send us into a La Nina by the second half of 2016. The implications this can have are vast, and include an active severe season and big time Atlantic tropical season.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/19/looking-ahead-to-christmas-week-and-the-rest-of-december/
Dec 16
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/16/wednesday-morning-video-update/
Dec 14
Wow, the warmth of the weekend was simply amazing. We were even able to take our Christmas party outside Saturday night and enjoy the warm weather in the back yard.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/14/monday-morning-transient-pattern/
Dec 11
The huge story this weekend will be the record warm weather. We’ll likely set records both Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 60s. The balance of…
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Dec 09
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/09/changes-are-brewing-friends/
Dec 07
Ironically, the only area of normal to below normal air (with the exception of the Rockies and southern Plains) is located over our region, month-to-date.
From a winter lover’s perspective, this December has been one to forget this far, and it’ll only grow more frustrating in the days ahead (we still forecast mid to upper 60s over the weekend).
The basic drivers of our pattern remain generally unchanged from ideas in October when we posted our Winter Outlook. Our complete Winter Outlook can be found here. We feel the need to remind some that we thought we would get off to warmer than normal and relatively quiet start:
In short, there’s nothing out there that would suggest any reasons we should deviate from our current winter outlook that’s out there. Despite the warm start, we still feel the winter, when all totaled up, will end up slightly colder than normal. Additionally, though still falling short of normal snowfall, we also feel there will be plenty of winter weather potential come mid and late winter.
That leads us to the shorter term and what happens after the near record warmth of the upcoming weekend.
To sum it up:
Bottom line is that the overall pattern is one that favors more in the way of warmer than average conditions through the next couple weeks before we begin transitioning towards more sustained wintry conditions mid and late winter. The idea here is that with each successive storm that comes through, it’ll cut into the mean ridge position and the heights will continue to lift further and further north with time over the upcoming 10-14 days. The GFS ensembles show this.
Is it an ideal set up for “lock and load” winter? Not at all. Is it an improvement that can at least offer up a couple attempts of wintry potential around Christmas? Yes.
As stated above, in the longer term, based off current data and seasonal modeling, there’s no reason to walk away from the idea the slow start to winter continues for the duration. Patience friends. 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/07/patience-required/
Dec 03
The updated constructed analog model is in the house and holds steady with the on-going idea from previous months.
Upper air pattern for Jan., Feb., and March
Temperature anomalies for Jan., Feb., and March
Precipitation anomalies for Jan., Feb., and March
Based on this update, we really don’t see anything that would suggest we need to change our ongoing thinking this winter.
While the mainstream national media seems to continue to push the warmth this winter, we just don’t see it that way. It doesn’t mean that we’re guaranteed to be correct, but at least we’ve outlined our reasoning behind why we disagree with that idea in countless previous posts (that can be found in the archives).
As it stands now, we are really becoming bullish on the possibility we turn much more active for mid and late month. This will come after a relatively quiet and mild first two weeks of December. The SOI has been tanking for several days, but has gone into an all-out tail spin today.
A couple things that come to mind right off the bat with that kind of daily negative value? Poor model performance in the mid range, and an active pattern 10-14 days out. Let’s see how things unfold.
Additionally, latest model data suggests our teleconnections may begin to align in a better fashion for central and eastern cold. Latest runs take the AO slightly negative, the NAO neutral, and trend the PNA back positive towards late month. Not perfect, but we’ll take it.
I heard one prominent national weather source today say December looks warm, quiet, and feature reduced chances of a White Christmas for most compared to normal. Perhaps that will, indeed, be the case. We’re, however, in the camp (small as it may be :-)) that believes a colder and more active period looms leading up to Christmas. We shall see what we shall see…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/03/constructed-analog-model-holds-steady/