Dec 14
Updated 12.14.21 @ 5:25p Wholesale pattern changes are always challenging to forecast- but equally as fascinating. All indications continue to point towards a rather significant shakeup in the regime towards…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/new-thoughts-on-the-pattern-change-on-deck/
Nov 11
Updated 11.11.21 @ 6:55a
The long running idea here (since summer) has been one that has thought a rather sharp and significant colder pattern would emerge around Thanksgiving to help kick-start a fast start to meteorological winter. Guidance shows a couple of chilly air masses poised to settle into the region over the upcoming couple of weeks.
The coldest air of the season so far (lower 20s) awaits next week, but notice that guidance takes a transient approach with these colder shots. That’s for good reason when you look at the teleconnections. We’re still waiting on the PNA and EPO (MJO remains off the playing field- for now) to align in a manner that will drive a persistent cold pattern, but over the next couple of weeks, it doesn’t appear this will be the case. For those wanting a persistent cold pattern, you want to root for a positive PNA to compliment a negative EPO.
Rest assured the idea here isn’t changing regarding the fast and cold start to meteorological winter, but we’re rapidly approaching the period where this idea will be put to test. If by Thanksgiving week we still don’t see the movement expected with the EPO and PNA then it’ll be time to look for a Plan B.
One additional element with this is that we believe the MJO will become a driver in the expected cold start to the season (a byproduct of the sea surface temperature configuration and 2nd year Nina). It’ll be interesting to see if we can get the MJO out of the neutral phase and into position to make an impact driving an expected more persistent cold regime.
Potential is high in this setup. Now it’s time to simply sit back, wait, and watch for the hours of research back in the summer to either come to fruition or flop. 😃
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-persistent-cold-pattern-still-a-ways-off/
Sep 19
Updated 09.19.21 @ 10:20a
As the first strong autumn cold front takes aim on the region, it’s time to start thinking more about what lies ahead in the December-February time frame. This morning’s video dives in with some initial thoughts around just that. Is the CFSv2 seasonal precipitation projection an indication of the active winter storm track ahead? We think so…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-initial-thoughts-around-winter-2021-2022/
Dec 10
Tonight we look at the pattern evolution into early January, as well as take a deeper dive into 2 systems of note: heavy rain late Friday night into Saturday and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-pattern-evolution-into-early-january-wintry-mischief-on-deck-early-next-week/
Nov 22
This morning is once again reminding us that we can deal with wintry “issues” at times even in the midst of an overall mild pattern. As we move down the road, it sure appears as if additional opportunities for wintry weather will present themselves as the pattern evolves towards more of a traditional regime to support such.
More specifically, we’re targeting the period between 11/30 and 12/10. Though still not a “textbook” pattern, the PNA is trending more positive with each run. This favors as eastern trough (example below).
Note how the upper pattern evolves in the coming couple of weeks:
You might be asking yourself, “what would take this pattern to lock-in and become more textbook?” We need the two positives (initially over Saskatchewan and Manitoba to “connect” with the one in the northwestern Atlantic). As it is, we do note the heights continue to build and push towards Greenland. I’m not sure we can pull it off, but the evolution towards a strong PNA can force the issue and eventually lead to a negative AO. Regardless of whether or not we get to that point, which would lead to a more long lasting colder/ stormy regime, I think we’ll have a minimum of 2 opportunities for eastern wintry “fun and games” during the aforementioned period above.
As we get into Week 2 (11/29-12/4), note how the pattern has the look of an active subtropical jet as the “horseshoe” block tries to get established over the top. This is likely still not an overly cold pattern, but one plenty capable of additional wintry fun, even with marginally cold air.
Stay tuned. The closer we get, the more specific we can be regarding the storms. From this distance, if I’m a fan of winter weather, you have to like where you’re sitting as we open up meteorological winter.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/troubling-pattern-to-close-november-open-december/