Dec 14
Updated 12.14.21 @ 5:25p Wholesale pattern changes are always challenging to forecast- but equally as fascinating. All indications continue to point towards a rather significant shakeup in the regime towards…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/14/new-thoughts-on-the-pattern-change-on-deck/
Nov 11
Updated 11.11.21 @ 6:55a
The long running idea here (since summer) has been one that has thought a rather sharp and significant colder pattern would emerge around Thanksgiving to help kick-start a fast start to meteorological winter. Guidance shows a couple of chilly air masses poised to settle into the region over the upcoming couple of weeks.
The coldest air of the season so far (lower 20s) awaits next week, but notice that guidance takes a transient approach with these colder shots. That’s for good reason when you look at the teleconnections. We’re still waiting on the PNA and EPO (MJO remains off the playing field- for now) to align in a manner that will drive a persistent cold pattern, but over the next couple of weeks, it doesn’t appear this will be the case. For those wanting a persistent cold pattern, you want to root for a positive PNA to compliment a negative EPO.
Rest assured the idea here isn’t changing regarding the fast and cold start to meteorological winter, but we’re rapidly approaching the period where this idea will be put to test. If by Thanksgiving week we still don’t see the movement expected with the EPO and PNA then it’ll be time to look for a Plan B.
One additional element with this is that we believe the MJO will become a driver in the expected cold start to the season (a byproduct of the sea surface temperature configuration and 2nd year Nina). It’ll be interesting to see if we can get the MJO out of the neutral phase and into position to make an impact driving an expected more persistent cold regime.
Potential is high in this setup. Now it’s time to simply sit back, wait, and watch for the hours of research back in the summer to either come to fruition or flop. 😃
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/11/a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-persistent-cold-pattern-still-a-ways-off/
Sep 19
Updated 09.19.21 @ 10:20a
As the first strong autumn cold front takes aim on the region, it’s time to start thinking more about what lies ahead in the December-February time frame. This morning’s video dives in with some initial thoughts around just that. Is the CFSv2 seasonal precipitation projection an indication of the active winter storm track ahead? We think so…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/19/video-initial-thoughts-around-winter-2021-2022/
Dec 10
Tonight we look at the pattern evolution into early January, as well as take a deeper dive into 2 systems of note: heavy rain late Friday night into Saturday and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/10/video-pattern-evolution-into-early-january-wintry-mischief-on-deck-early-next-week/
Nov 22
This morning is once again reminding us that we can deal with wintry “issues” at times even in the midst of an overall mild pattern. As we move down the road, it sure appears as if additional opportunities for wintry weather will present themselves as the pattern evolves towards more of a traditional regime to support such.
More specifically, we’re targeting the period between 11/30 and 12/10. Though still not a “textbook” pattern, the PNA is trending more positive with each run. This favors as eastern trough (example below).
Note how the upper pattern evolves in the coming couple of weeks:
You might be asking yourself, “what would take this pattern to lock-in and become more textbook?” We need the two positives (initially over Saskatchewan and Manitoba to “connect” with the one in the northwestern Atlantic). As it is, we do note the heights continue to build and push towards Greenland. I’m not sure we can pull it off, but the evolution towards a strong PNA can force the issue and eventually lead to a negative AO. Regardless of whether or not we get to that point, which would lead to a more long lasting colder/ stormy regime, I think we’ll have a minimum of 2 opportunities for eastern wintry “fun and games” during the aforementioned period above.
As we get into Week 2 (11/29-12/4), note how the pattern has the look of an active subtropical jet as the “horseshoe” block tries to get established over the top. This is likely still not an overly cold pattern, but one plenty capable of additional wintry fun, even with marginally cold air.
Stay tuned. The closer we get, the more specific we can be regarding the storms. From this distance, if I’m a fan of winter weather, you have to like where you’re sitting as we open up meteorological winter.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/22/troubling-pattern-to-close-november-open-december/
Nov 21
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/21/video-certainly-isnt-a-boring-pattern-to-close-november-and-open-december/
Oct 06
October has opened on quite a chilly note across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the eastern half of the country. Officially, Indianapolis is running 8.4° below average, month-to-date.
While warming will occur in the upcoming 7-day period, there are already seeds being planted for the return of unseasonably chilly conditions after this transitional warmth.
The pattern will take on signs that you’d expect from a positive PNA and trending negative EPO. That will pull the chill back into the east and we may just may trend wetter during the mid and late month period, as a series of cold fronts sweep through the region (fingers crossed).
The purpose of this post is to focus on the predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (or AO) and what, if anything, we can learn for the upcoming winter. Note the AO continues a negative look over the upcoming couple weeks (it’s been negative so far this month, as well).
The combination of the persistent negative AO so far this month, along with what’s forecasted over the coming few weeks, got us interested to see what kind of patterns occurred during the following winter (Dec. through Feb.). We went back and looked at all October with a negative AO of 1, or more, since 1960 and this is what the analogs produced:
There’s obviously a lot of other ingredients we’ll factor into our winter outlook this year (per usual), but this is another interesting case study in front of us, especially with so many climate models blow torching the upcoming winter.
Our complete annual winter outlook will be online Sunday, November 1st.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/06/what-can-we-learn-from-a-persistent-negative-october-ao-for-the-upcoming-winter/
Jan 21
January is flying by! With only 10 days left in the month, Indianapolis is running a whopping 8.2° above normal along with more than 3″ above normal in the precipitation department (unfortunately for snow lovers, this excess moisture has fallen primarily as rain, as IND is running a deficit of 5.2″ in the snowfall department).
On a broader scale, here’s a look at the current month-to-date temperature anomalies for the Lower 48 as a whole:
As a refresher, our January forecast looked like this:
The baseline of this thinking had to do with the idea we had that the MJO would roll out of the warm phases (5 and 6) and strongly into the colder phases after mid-month. Secondly, the other driver was the thought that the current SST configuration in the north Pacific would “force” a negative EPO as the winter season matured.
While the MJO did, indeed, rumble out of the warmer phases just after mid-month, the EPO has not cooperated. Furthermore, instead of the MJO tracking into Phases 8, 1, and 2, it appears it wants to go into the “null” phase to figure out its ultimate destination for the 2nd half of winter (this will be key with Feb. and March). While this doesn’t necessarily support warmth, it doesn’t offer enough ammo to fight the warm signal from the strongly positive EPO.
Now that we’re beginning to turn the page to the 2nd half of winter, there are other items to begin paying closer attention to. In addition to the EPO and MJO, some of these features include the AO, NAO, and PNA. With that said, to drive more of a consistent colder than normal theme, we need to get the EPO at least into the neutral range as some of the other ingredients noted above transition into more favorable colder phases. With a strongly positive EPO, it’ll be tough to sustain well below average temperatures.
With all of that said, all hope is not lost for winter lovers. Climatology speaking, we’re in the coldest time of the year. Even in “marginally” cold patterns, or even “warm” patterns this time of year, wintry issues can create headaches. Secondly, it’s worth paying close attention to the MJO over the next couple of weeks as some of the data wants to take things out of the null phase and transition towards the traditionally colder phases of 8, 1, 2, and 3.
As it is, the next couple of weeks should present a fairly active storm track across the region. In the face of what should truly be a “torch” pattern, the saving grace (at least for fans of winter weather) has to do with the strong Hudson Bay ridge and tendency this kind of pattern has to force stormy times underneath. While far from a “slam dunk,” these kind of patterns can produce- even in the face of a strong positive EPO.
If you had to choose, would you rather have a bitterly cold and dry regime or seasonably mild with at least being on the playing field for wintry mischief over the next couple of weeks?
More in the AM, friends. Make it a relaxing evening! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/21/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening-and-looking-ahead/
Sep 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/26/video-game-changing-week-ahead-from-summer-to-fall/
Sep 25
Where does the time go?! This will be the 10th consecutive year we’ve released a winter outlook as the IndyWx.com brand. Thankfully, most of those outlooks have been rather accurate! A few of you have been along for the ride from day 1 and your continued support means more than you realize!
Our official, finalized, winter outlook will be published just before Halloween. It’s our expectation that there won’t be many significant changes to what we present below, but fall storms and tropical activity can have big impacts on the sea surface temperature patterns and the impacts can be profound in the 2-4 month period that follows. That’s the primary reason we have never released an official outlook before mid-late October. With that said, let’s dig in to the drivers behind the upcoming winter:
I. Warm anomalies across the northeastern Pacific
II. Neutral ENSO
III. Warm anomalies across the eastern Atlantic
IV. Cold waters surrounding Australia
Let’s look first at the sea surface temperature anomalies:
First and foremost, what’s absolutely screaming out as potentially wanting to take control as the driving force this winter is the significantly warmer than average eastern Pacific waters. This is significant as the warmer than average waters can alter the upper air pattern, promoting a ‘mean’ ridge across the western US and into Canada with a persistent eastern trough downstream. This kind of pattern can be rather persistent in “dislodging” cold Canadian air southeast and can promote a colder to significantly colder than average weather pattern across the Mid West, Great Lakes and into parts of the East. While the warmth across the eastern Atlantic can argue for warmer than average temperatures to kick-off meteorological winter across the eastern seaboard, the makeup of cold and warm off New England and into the Canadian Maritimes can argue for a negative NAO later in the winter (something to consider if we keep this configuration into the mid winter period especially).
All things considered above, here’s our early analog set from a temperature (image 1) and precipitation (image 2) perspective:
While we’ll most certainly have to tweak some of these years as we move through the next 30 days, or so, this serves as a great baseline of what our temperature and precipitation maps may resemble with the finalized winter outlook next month.
We’re fired up for what sure looks like a stormy time of things through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Based on the direction the Pacific goes, the potential is there for more of a southeast ridge and warmer look across portions of the Deep South. We’re also beginning to think the West Coast is likely to run warmer than what is shown above based off the Pacific temperature pattern.
The early call here for central Indiana is for a colder than normal winter with above average snowfall. We’ll have our finalized numbers with respect to temperatures and snowfall amounts next month, along with the latest seasonal and climate data included with our updated analog sets.
In the meantime, it might not be a bad idea to take advantage of those early season snow thrower deals out there!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/25/indywx-com-preliminary-19-20-winter-outlook/