Updated 10.05.22 @ 6:19p
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Category: Winter thoughts…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-additional-winter-thoughts-on-this-gorgeous-october-evening/
Oct 03
Something’s Got To Give…
Updated 10.03.22 @ 5:32p
The NEW European Weeklies are in and continue to paint an intriguing picture as we look ahead to November. Remember, we’re of the belief that the pattern may, indeed, get off to a fast start to the winter season (for a change) this year.
At any rate, note the evolution at 500mb continues to up the ante that this idea may be right as we rumble into mid-November.
However, at the surface, the European doesn’t display the type of cooling one would imagine given the upper air pattern look.
My hunch is that we’ll see the trough “tuck in” further west to include a good portion of the central and east as we move forward and zone in on that mid-November time frame. That will likely force the surface temperature anomalies above to cool (significantly so if this idea is correct) for that time period.
It’ll be interesting to see what the update European seasonal product says in a couple of days. We’ll include that in Thursday’s long range update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/somethings-got-to-give/
Sep 20
Dinnertime Rambles: “Times, They Are A Changin…”
Updated 09.20.22 @ 6:33p Despite the fact that we’re looking at near-record heat tomorrow, when you get to late September, you know time is ticking on what can be an…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dinnertime-rambles-times-they-are-a-changin/
Sep 14
Late Evening Winter Chatter…
Updated 09.14.22 @ 10:21p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/late-evening-winter-chatter/
Sep 12
JMA Chimes In On Winter, Has Look Of A Fast Start…
Updated 09.12.22 @ 11:02p
The JMA long range (3 month) and seasonal (December through February) data is in and helps increase our confidence in the fast start to winter- for a change. The baseline of our call on a fast start is primarily due to analog research, along with keying in on global SST configurations.
Despite the latest European printing out a head fake from its August update, the JMA is going right to the 500mb look that could lead to all sorts of fun and games as the holidays near.
After a warm look to October (see no reason to disagree with that idea), note how the model begins to flip things around in November (2nd set of images) and December (3rd set of images).
I’ll spend more time tomorrow discussing the JMA updates in a video discussion. In short, another highly respected long range model is keying in on at least the kind of look that would lead to a vastly different close to fall and open to winter over the past couple of years…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-chimes-in-on-winter-has-look-of-a-fast-start/